Bitcoin
Will Bitcoin Drop to $40,000? Peter Brandt Weighs In
Veteran trader Peter Brandt has suggested a potential decline in Bitcoin’s value below $40,000. He is known for applying Bayesian Probability Theory to market analysis.
Brandt’s methodology involves revising the likelihood of events as new data emerges. This approach is a central tenet of Bayesian Probability Theory, which helps investors adjust their predictions based on changing information.
Peter Brandt: There Are 65% Chances of Bitcoin Dropping Below $40,000
Brandt, who first began trading Bitcoin in 2016, initially believed there was a 50% chance the cryptocurrency could reach $100,000. Equally, he thought it might fail, resembling the modern equivalent of a “Pet Rock.”
However, over time, Brandt’s perspective has evolved, significantly influenced by proprietary technical analysis tools.
For instance, in early June, Brandt assigned a 50% probability of a drop to $30,000 and a 50% chance of rising to $140,000. However, his current projections have shifted to the following:
- 65% chance of Bitcoin falling under $40,000
- 20% chance of Bitcoin peaking at $80,000
- 15% chance of Bitcoin hitting $130,000 by September 2025
Read more: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030
Adding to the discourse, Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani highlighted the impact the upcoming US Presidential election might have on Bitcoin prices. According to Chhugani, the outcome—whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins—could dramatically affect the cryptocurrency’s trajectory.
“We expect the delta between the two political outcomes to be wide. We expect Bitcoin to claim back new highs, in case of a Trump win and by Q4, we expect Bitcoin to reach close to $80,000-$90,000 range. However, if Harris wins, we expect Bitcoin to break the current floor around $50,000 and test the $30,000-$40,000 range,” Chhugani stated.
This year, Bitcoin has fluctuated between $55,000 and $70,000, following its peak in March. As of writing, it is trading at around $56,500, up by 3% in the past 24 hours.
The cryptocurrency’s fate seems intertwined with the US election results scheduled for November 5. Furthermore, the broader political climate, particularly the positions of US politicians towards cryptocurrencies, also plays a crucial role.
Standard Chartered has predicted a surge to $150,000 for Bitcoin if Trump, who has positioned himself as a pro-crypto candidate, is re-elected. Meanwhile, Democratic policies, especially those influenced by figures like Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler, are viewed as less favorable towards cryptocurrencies.
Read more: Who Is Gary Gensler? Everything To Know About the SEC Chairman
Hence, Chhugani emphasized the broader implications of a favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies.
“A crypto-friendly election outcome and positive regulatory environment is not priced in. A positive regulatory environment would take away the policy risk for financial institutions and banks to participate, thus removing the handicap for digital assets to compete with traditional assets for institutional flows,” Chhugani said.
Disclaimer
In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin Price Might Never Dip Below $70,000 Again After The US Elections, Here’s Why
The US presidential elections have come and gone, and the only thing left is the results. Interestingly, a snapshot of the Bitcoin price during the elections showed Bitcoin trading just above $70,000. This is a notable price to follow, as history shows this might be the price support for Bitcoin in the foreseeable future. Interestingly, this phenomenon goes back to the Bitcoin price levels in previous US elections.
Why Bitcoin Price Might Never Dip Below $70,000 Again
Bitcoin has largely been on an uptrend since Monday, when it kicked off a run after it rebounded to the upside from $67,000. This run continued, allowing the Bitcoin average price during the 2024 presidential elections to be around $70,110.
Historically, U.S. election cycles have often been accompanied by shifts in Bitcoin’s value, marking crucial price points that tend to establish longer-term support levels.
To understand this trend, we need to look at the past four election cycles. Back in 2012, during the early days of the crypto industry, the Bitcoin price traded at a modest $10 on the US presidential election day, a price point that now seems almost unimaginable. By 2016, Bitcoin’s election-day price had climbed to $710, setting a new baseline that it has never revisited since.
The most interesting one was what happened after the 2020 US presidential election, when the Bitcoin price was trading around $13,555. The Bitcoin price has never revisited this price point again since then up until the time of writing. What’s more interesting is that this price point even served as the lowest support level during the 2022 bear market price crash.
If these historical trends are any indication, the 2024 election-day price of $70,110 could become a similar stronghold and a price floor for Bitcoin in the coming years. This level might even serve as critical support should a bear market eventually take hold at any point.
What’s Next For The Bitcoin Price?
As of now, Bitcoin is trading above $73,200 after experiencing an intense surge over the past 24 hours. This remarkable rally saw Bitcoin climb nearly 10% within a single day, reaching an intraday high of $75,358. This milestone has now become Bitcoin’s highest trading level, as it broke past its previous all-time high of $73,737 in March 2024.
Although the Bitcoin price has pulled back slightly likely due to some investors cashing in on recent profits, the rally is expected to resume anytime from now. Considering this momentum, Bitcoin remains well-positioned to challenge the $80,000 mark before the end of November, especially if buying interest continues to drive the current uptrend.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin
Bitcoin Price After US Presidential Elections: Here’s How BTC Reacted To Previous Winners
Market analysts have continued to deliberate on how the Bitcoin price could react to a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris victory in the US presidential elections. History indicates that Bitcoin’s future trajectory is bullish, irrespective of who wins the elections.
How The Bitcoin Price Has Reacted To Previous Winners
The Bitcoin price has always hit a new all-time high (ATH) regardless of the winners in the past US presidential elections. In 2012, after Barack Obama won the elections, Bitcoin rallied and reached a new ATH of $1,200 in 2013. Its price then consolidated until the next election in 2016.
The 2016 US presidential elections, which Donald Trump won, also sparked the beginning of another impressive rally for the Bitcoin price, which rose to a new ATH of $19,000 the following year. In 2020, following Joe Biden’s victory in the US presidential election, BTC rose to a new ATH of $69,000.
The Bitcoin price rally after the US presidential elections is believed to be due to the market certainty that the election aftermath provides. Meanwhile, based on history, the BTC rally could begin as soon as December, with the flagship crypto hitting a new ATH as soon as January 2024.
In 2016, the Bitcoin price rally began about three weeks before the election and went on to hit a new high in the first week of January 2017. In 2020, BTC had also consolidated for about six months before it began to rally from $11,000 just about three weeks before the US elections and then went on to reach a new high of $42,000 in January 2021.
Bitcoin’s recent price action also looks to be playing out the same way as BTC began rallying in mid-October and even came close to hitting its current ATH of $73,700 late last month. As such, there is the possibility that the flagship crypto could again retest this ATH and surpass it as soon as January 2024 or even before then.
There Could Be Some Volatility In The Coming Days
In an X post, Crypto analyst Ali Martinez warned that the days following the last three US presidential elections have been volatile for the Bitcoin price. However, he added that the overall trend has stayed upward.
Economist and crypto analyst Alex Krüger also warned about the potential pullback the Bitcoin price could face after the US elections. He claimed that there is a 45% chance that BTC could drop to as low as $65,000 if Kamala Harris wins the elections.
Due to his pro-crypto stance, Donald Trump looks to be the most preferred candidate in the crypto community. As such, the market could initially react negatively to a Harris win while taking in Trump’s loss.
At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $68,000, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin
What $2.2 Billion Means for Market
Defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox, once the most significant player in Bitcoin trading, moved $2.2 billion worth of Bitcoin on Monday. The transaction marked one of its largest transactions since its infamous 2014 collapse.
Blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence identified the movement of 32,371 BTC, a transaction that has sent waves through the crypto market.
Mt. Gox Moves 32,371 Bitcoin
Arkham Intelligence’s analysis revealed that a prominent wallet address labeled “1FG2C…Rveoy,” moved 30,371 BTC, while an additional 2,000 BTC initially went to a Mt. Gox cold wallet before being moved to a different, unmarked address.
Spotonchain confirms the report, indicating that over the last four days, Mt. Gox has moved Bitcoin worth $2.22 billion. Among these tokens, 296 BTC valued at $20.13 million was moved to B2C2 and OKX. Such significant transfers are noteworthy because they often signal preparations for creditor distributions.
Read more: Top Crypto Bankruptcies: What You Need To Know
As BeInCrypto reported, Mt. Gox has already funneled smaller amounts to creditors using exchanges like Bitstamp and Kraken. The exchanges helped facilitate smooth transfers for those affected by the exchange’s collapse a decade ago. Meanwhile, analysts predict continued volatility, especially as the US election cycle adds a layer of uncertainty to global markets.
“The recent $2.2 billion Bitcoin movement and extended repayment timeline from Mt. Gox will likely inject some volatility into the market in the short term. With such a large amount of Bitcoin potentially entering circulation, there’s bound to be short-term price swings as recipients decide whether to hold or sell,” Peter Watson, Chief Market Officer at Velar, told BeInCrypto.
Indeed, following the transfer, Bitcoin prices momentarily dipped below $68,000 during Asian market trading, briefly rattling investor confidence. However, the asset quickly rebounded to trade for $68,810 as of writing.
However, Watson says the impact may be less severe than some fear, especially as many creditors have had years to consider their strategies. Further, he observes that this could benefit market confidence.
“For many, seeing the Mt. Gox saga finally come to a close may reinforce the belief that Bitcoin is better equipped for sustained growth and stability.. ultimately strengthening confidence in its future,” Watson added.
An Ongoing Saga of Repayment and Recovery
The transfer occurred just a week after Mt. Gox extended its repayment deadline for creditors by another year, much to their frustration. The decision was partly due to the logistical and technical hurdles of coordinating payments to thousands of creditors.
“Many rehabilitation creditors still have not received their repayments because they have not completed the necessary procedures for receiving repayments. Additionally, a considerable number of rehabilitation creditors have not received their repayments due to various reasons, such as issues arising during the repayments process,” Mt. Gox explained.
This process has been an agonizing journey for creditors, filled with delays, legal complications, and financial uncertainty. The repayment saga continues, fueling concerns over market volatility. However, analysts suggest that the postponement could be delaying a potential sell-off.
“$4 billion payment selling pressure now shifted to 2025,” one user shared on X.
Read more: Who Owns the Most Bitcoin in 2024?
According to data on Arkham, Mt. Gox still holds 44,378 BTC, which is valued at approximately $3.05 billion. As the market continues to advance, events like Mt. Gox’s transfers serve as reminders of the industry’s turbulent past. For creditors, however, the wait remains, extending a wait that has already spanned nearly a decade.
Disclaimer
In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
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