Bitcoin
Why Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Can Change the Game for BTC
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price may have officially hit “reset” following an incredible rise in the coin’s long-term holder net position change. Historically, a rise in this metric helps the price recover.
But will it be the same this time? This on-chain analysis examines the chances.
$20 Billion in the Bag for Bitcoin HODLers
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s long-term holder net position change has been increasing since July 22. However, today, the metric, which tracks the 30-day change in supply held by long-term holders, hit its highest point since January 2020.
As seen in the image below, long-term holders purchased 334,358 BTC today. At the coin’s current price, this value is worth nearly $20 billion. Purchasing such a large amount of Bitcoin suggests that holders are confident in the coin’s long-term potential.
For instance, the last time holders accumulated such a number, Bitcoin’s price was $10,300 (in 2020). By the end of the same year, the value had increased to $28,988, representing approximately a 300% price increase.
While history doesn’t exactly repeat, patterns often rhyme. If long-term holder supply impacts Bitcoin similarly, a breakout could occur mid to long term. However, this surge might not lead to the massive 200%-300% gains seen previously. Currently, Bitcoin is priced at $58,579, marking an 11.95% drop in the last 30 days.
In the short term, Bitcoin could find relief due to the Miner’s Position Index (MPI). The MPI is the ratio of the total miner outflow, measured in dollars, to the 365-day moving average of the same ratio. Higher values suggest that miners are taking coins out of their reserves and selling them.
Usually, this leads to a price drop. However, according to CryptoQuant, the MPI is down to its lowest level since the previous week.
Read more: Who Owns the Most Bitcoin in 2024?
The recent drawdown indicates that miners have refrained from selling. If this remains the case, BTC might avoid another drop. Instead, the cryptocurrency’s price might attempt to revisit $60,000.
Bulls Ready to Pull the Buy Trigger
Another metric that supports this is the Exchange Stablecoin Ratio, which measures the buying power in the market. When the stablecoin ratio is high, buying power is low, indicating a higher chance of a price drop.
However, at press time, Bitcoin’s Exchange Stablecoin Ratio is at its lowest since February 2023. This decline suggests that market participants have significant buying power to drive a price increase.
Regarding this, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler opined that Bitcoin is nearing the end of its consolidation period.
“The current 5-month consolidation looks healthy, with most investors having sold their coins to others at a profit, and there have been no massive stress-induced panic sales. Now, realized losses have exceeded profits, which often occurs at the end of a consolidation period,” Adler wrote.
BTC Price Prediction: $63,000 Could Be Next
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is currently trading below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This indicator typically signals trend direction, and with BTC below it, the outlook suggests a potential bearish trend in the short term.
However, it is also worth noting that a brief price increase could send Bitcoin’s price above the 200 EMA (purple). If this happens, bulls may push the price higher. Should this be the case, the value of BTC might reach $60,536.
Additionally, the price could trade higher if MACD turns positive and the 12 EMA (blue) crosses the 26 EMA (orange). As seen below, a crossover of the shorter EMA over the longer one brought about a substantial price increase for BTC.
Read more: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030
For instance, the May crossover propelled BTC to $72,045, and in July, it reached $68,308 after another bullish crossover. Currently, the EMAs are aligned similarly. If the 12 EMA crosses above the 26 EMA, it would confirm a bullish trend, potentially pushing Bitcoin to $63,237.
However, if a bearish crossover occurs, the outlook could reverse, leading BTC to a decline toward $54,491.
Disclaimer
In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
Bitcoin
Trump and Lummis Unite on $76 Billion National Bitcoin Reserve
Senator Cynthia Lummis is making a bold new proposal to establish a Bitcoin reserve in the US. This follows President-elect Donald Trump’s recent declarations in the run-up to the US elections.
Her bill, the BITCOIN Act of 2024, aims to have the US Treasury acquire 1 million Bitcoin (BTC) over five years, a massive move that would position the US as a leader in financial innovation.
Senator Cynthia Lummis Advocates Bitcoin Reserve
The Wyoming senator wants the plan spread across five years, with purchases of 200,000 BTC tokens every year to develop America’s Bitcoin reserve. At current rates, that translates to an investment of about $76 billion.
“We are going to build a strategic Bitcoin reserve,” Lummis shared on X (formerly Twitter).
Notably, Lummis’s side of the political divide now holds the majority in both the Senate and House committees. According to Stand With Crypto, 261 pro-crypto candidates have been elected to the House of Representatives against 116 anti-crypto candidates. On the other hand, there are 17 pro-crypto candidates in the Senate and 12 anti-crypto lawmakers.
Read more: How To Buy Bitcoin (BTC) and Everything You Need To Know
With this, the chances of Senator Lummis’ Bitcoin Bill passing through Congress are far better. This is as opposed to the Biden administration, where efforts toward bipartisan bills were greatly stifled due to a divided Congress.
This political alignment, along with Bitcoin’s recent surge to a new all-time high, adds momentum to Lummis’ initiative. Industry leaders, including Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy and Samson Mow, have shown support, stressing Bitcoin’s potential as a national asset.
Mow highlighted Bitcoin’s value at sub-$100,000, pointing out its potential strategic importance if prices soar above $500,000 in coming years.
“Good luck Senator Lummis. I suggest acting quickly. The difference between acquiring Bitcoin below $0.1 million vs. $0.5 million will have massive geopolitical ramifications,” Mow wrote.
Framework for Secure BTC Management
The BITCOIN Act does not stop at Bitcoin acquisition. It also introduces a framework for managing Bitcoin securely within Treasury vaults. It aims to reduce national debt by half by 2045. This would serve as a hedge against inflation and a potential powerhouse for US debt management.
President-elect Trump publicly endorsed the creation of a national Bitcoin reserve during the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville. His remarks continue to stir interest among crypto proponents and Republicans as the then-presidential aspirant emphasized Bitcoin as a “core of financial independence” for the US.
“It will be the policy of my administration…to keep 100% of all the Bitcoin the US government currently holds or acquires into the future. This will serve in effect as the core of the strategic national bitcoin stockpile…It’s been taken away from you,” Trump said.
Meanwhile, state governments are also eyeing Bitcoin, with Florida’s Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis recently endorsing Bitcoin as a “strategic reserve” for state pensions. Florida’s pension fund, among other states like Wisconsin and Michigan, would benefit from Bitcoin’s long-term appreciation, diversifying investments amid economic uncertainty.
Nevertheless, while the plan has garnered support, it raises questions about economic risks and global impacts. Some economists warn of potential volatility in tying national debt management to cryptocurrency. However, advocates point to Bitcoin’s finite supply and growing international adoption as a hedge against inflation and market fluctuations.
Read more: Crypto Regulation: What Are the Benefits and Drawbacks?
With Trump’s support, a Republican-led Congress, and growing state-level backing, the plan has momentum. This makes the concept of a national Bitcoin reserve a closer reality than ever before. If implemented, the BITCOIN Act could place the US at the forefront of a global financial evolution.
“Other countries will follow,” another popular user on X added.
Disclaimer
In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin Price Might Never Dip Below $70,000 Again After The US Elections, Here’s Why
The US presidential elections have come and gone, and the only thing left is the results. Interestingly, a snapshot of the Bitcoin price during the elections showed Bitcoin trading just above $70,000. This is a notable price to follow, as history shows this might be the price support for Bitcoin in the foreseeable future. Interestingly, this phenomenon goes back to the Bitcoin price levels in previous US elections.
Why Bitcoin Price Might Never Dip Below $70,000 Again
Bitcoin has largely been on an uptrend since Monday, when it kicked off a run after it rebounded to the upside from $67,000. This run continued, allowing the Bitcoin average price during the 2024 presidential elections to be around $70,110.
Historically, U.S. election cycles have often been accompanied by shifts in Bitcoin’s value, marking crucial price points that tend to establish longer-term support levels.
To understand this trend, we need to look at the past four election cycles. Back in 2012, during the early days of the crypto industry, the Bitcoin price traded at a modest $10 on the US presidential election day, a price point that now seems almost unimaginable. By 2016, Bitcoin’s election-day price had climbed to $710, setting a new baseline that it has never revisited since.
The most interesting one was what happened after the 2020 US presidential election, when the Bitcoin price was trading around $13,555. The Bitcoin price has never revisited this price point again since then up until the time of writing. What’s more interesting is that this price point even served as the lowest support level during the 2022 bear market price crash.
If these historical trends are any indication, the 2024 election-day price of $70,110 could become a similar stronghold and a price floor for Bitcoin in the coming years. This level might even serve as critical support should a bear market eventually take hold at any point.
What’s Next For The Bitcoin Price?
As of now, Bitcoin is trading above $73,200 after experiencing an intense surge over the past 24 hours. This remarkable rally saw Bitcoin climb nearly 10% within a single day, reaching an intraday high of $75,358. This milestone has now become Bitcoin’s highest trading level, as it broke past its previous all-time high of $73,737 in March 2024.
Although the Bitcoin price has pulled back slightly likely due to some investors cashing in on recent profits, the rally is expected to resume anytime from now. Considering this momentum, Bitcoin remains well-positioned to challenge the $80,000 mark before the end of November, especially if buying interest continues to drive the current uptrend.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin
Bitcoin Price After US Presidential Elections: Here’s How BTC Reacted To Previous Winners
Market analysts have continued to deliberate on how the Bitcoin price could react to a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris victory in the US presidential elections. History indicates that Bitcoin’s future trajectory is bullish, irrespective of who wins the elections.
How The Bitcoin Price Has Reacted To Previous Winners
The Bitcoin price has always hit a new all-time high (ATH) regardless of the winners in the past US presidential elections. In 2012, after Barack Obama won the elections, Bitcoin rallied and reached a new ATH of $1,200 in 2013. Its price then consolidated until the next election in 2016.
The 2016 US presidential elections, which Donald Trump won, also sparked the beginning of another impressive rally for the Bitcoin price, which rose to a new ATH of $19,000 the following year. In 2020, following Joe Biden’s victory in the US presidential election, BTC rose to a new ATH of $69,000.
The Bitcoin price rally after the US presidential elections is believed to be due to the market certainty that the election aftermath provides. Meanwhile, based on history, the BTC rally could begin as soon as December, with the flagship crypto hitting a new ATH as soon as January 2024.
In 2016, the Bitcoin price rally began about three weeks before the election and went on to hit a new high in the first week of January 2017. In 2020, BTC had also consolidated for about six months before it began to rally from $11,000 just about three weeks before the US elections and then went on to reach a new high of $42,000 in January 2021.
Bitcoin’s recent price action also looks to be playing out the same way as BTC began rallying in mid-October and even came close to hitting its current ATH of $73,700 late last month. As such, there is the possibility that the flagship crypto could again retest this ATH and surpass it as soon as January 2024 or even before then.
There Could Be Some Volatility In The Coming Days
In an X post, Crypto analyst Ali Martinez warned that the days following the last three US presidential elections have been volatile for the Bitcoin price. However, he added that the overall trend has stayed upward.
Economist and crypto analyst Alex Krüger also warned about the potential pullback the Bitcoin price could face after the US elections. He claimed that there is a 45% chance that BTC could drop to as low as $65,000 if Kamala Harris wins the elections.
Due to his pro-crypto stance, Donald Trump looks to be the most preferred candidate in the crypto community. As such, the market could initially react negatively to a Harris win while taking in Trump’s loss.
At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $68,000, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
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