This week, the crypto market will be watching multiple global macroeconomic events. Each event has significant implications for traditional markets and, by extension, risk assets like crypto.

The following developments will shape economic narratives and influence crypto investor sentiment this week.

US Retail Sales: A Pulse on Consumer Spending

Kicking off the week, US retail sales data is due, offering a critical snapshot of consumer spending trends in the US. Economists are eager to see if January’s unexpected drop—linked to concerns over Trump’s tariffs and cautious consumer behavior—persists into February.

Strong retail figures could signal economic resilience, potentially boosting the US dollar. However, this outcome could pressure crypto prices downward as investors favor traditional assets.

Conversely, weaker-than-expected numbers might fuel speculation of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, often a boon for Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto in general.

“I imagine retail sales will be terrible considering the recent headlines from last week. Perhaps that’s already baked-in like consumer sentiment was on Friday,” one user expressed.

FOMC Meeting and Powell’s Speech: The Fed’s Next Move

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convenes on March 18-19, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting speech is drawing intense scrutiny. After holding rates steady at 4.25%- 4.5% in January, the Fed’s cautious stance on inflation and labor market strength has markets guessing.

Recent remarks from Powell suggest no rush to cut rates, but softening consumer spending and tariff uncertainties could shift the tone. Crypto traders are on edge, as a hawkish outlook might strengthen the dollar, pressuring digital assets, while dovish hints could spark a rally.

“If Powell’s tone softens,liquidity algorithms won’t wait for confirmation; they’ll front-run the pivot, bidding Bitcoin higher before the echoes fade,” one user quipped.

Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision: A Yen Pivot?

Across the Pacific, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is set to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday. It marks a pivotal moment after years of ultra-loose policy. Speculation is rife that the BOJ might raise rates, bolstered by Japan’s third consecutive quarter of GDP growth.

 “Brace for more Bank of Japan rate hikes: Average monthly wages in Japan rose by 3.1% year-over-year, the fastest rate in 32 YEARS. In line with surging inflation, this gives a green light for BoJ to hike in May. The BoJ has already hiked rates 3 times from -0.10% to 0.50%. This could BLOW OUT financial markets if it goes wrong: Will central banks print out the way out of the next CRISIS again? This is absolutely key to watch, ” Global Markets Investor, a popular account on X, remarked.

A stronger yen could dampen crypto enthusiasm in Asia, a key market, as investors shift toward safer assets. However, if the BOJ holds steady, it might signal prolonged liquidity, potentially lifting crypto valuations.

Initial Jobless Claims: Labor Market Clues

On Thursday, US initial jobless claims will provide a real-time gauge of labor market health. After hitting expectations at 220,000 in the week ending March 8, any uptick, perhaps toward the median forecast of 222,000, could reignite concerns about an economic slowdown.

This could nudge the Fed toward easing measures—a scenario that crypto bulls often cheer. However, stable or declining claims might reinforce the Fed’s patience, keeping pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.

Bank of England Interest Rate Decision: Sterling’s Fate

The Bank of England (BOE) will unveil its rate decision on Thursday, rounding out the week for macroeconomic events with crypto implications. With UK inflation stubbornly above target, expectations lean toward maintaining current rates. Of note, however, is that a surprise cut is not off the table amid tariff-related growth worries.

A steady pound could stabilize crypto markets in Europe, while a weaker sterling might spur speculative buying.

These events collectively reflect the intricate dance between macroeconomic data and Bitcoin and crypto markets. Bitcoin, hovering below the $84,000 range, and altcoins like Ethereum are particularly sensitive to dollar strength and risk sentiment.

Global investors, particularly crypto traders, will be watching closely this week, ready to react to every twist and turn in this high-stakes economic data.

Gold prices skyrocketed to an all-time high of $3,004 per ounce, fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions, mounting inflation concerns, and a surge in demand for safe-haven assets. 

The milestone has reignited speculation over whether Bitcoin (BTC)—often referred to as “digital gold”—could experience a similar rally in the face of global uncertainty.

Gold vs Bitcoin: Can BTC Follow Gold’s Historic Rally?

On Friday, gold surged past the key $3,000 mark for the first time, setting a new all-time high for the 13th time this year. The rally pushed the precious metal’s total market capitalization beyond $20 trillion, according to data from CompaniesMarketCap.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has taken a different trajectory. Its value has plummeted significantly as macroeconomic conditions continue to weigh on it.

The leading cryptocurrency is currently trading 23.3% below its all-time high, having dropped 14.5% over the past month. At press time, BTC was valued at $83,643, reflecting a 0.8% decline in the past 24 hours.

Despite Bitcoin’s short-term struggles, analysts suggest it could follow a path similar to gold’s historic rise. 

In the latest X (formerly Twitter) post, an analyst compared the launch of the Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in November 2004 to the launch of the Bitcoin ETF in January 2024. He suggested that Bitcoin may follow a similar price trajectory to gold after its ETF introduction.

The introduction of the Gold ETF provided institutional and retail investors easier access to gold exposure. Over time, gold saw a massive price increase, with cyclical tops and corrections but a long-term bullish trend.

As per the analysis, Bitcoin appears to be following a similar pattern. If the trend holds, BTC could see a similar multi-year growth trajectory, with its ETF launch acting as a catalyst for institutional adoption and sustained price appreciation.

Another market analyst echoed this sentiment, noting that gold and Bitcoin are following a five-step parabolic model. He predicted that Bitcoin could soon experience a significant breakout, akin to gold’s past performance.

“Bitcoin’s future is written in gold! Gold followed this pattern before its breakout. Now, Bitcoin is mirroring the move,” Merlijn wrote.

According to his projections, Bitcoin has completed its “fakeout” phase, with an all-time high on the horizon. His bold forecast? A surge to $150,000 is “loading.”

However, not all experts are convinced. Northstar, a market analyst, pointed out a concerning trend in the gold/bitcoin ratio. It has been in a prolonged downtrend. In fact, Bitcoin has failed to outperform gold for four years, marking the longest period on record.

He warned that gold’s breakout isn’t just about its price increase but what it signals.

“Historically, when gold breaks out versus stock markets, it initiates a capital rotation event, sending NASDAQ down 80% or so. Unfortunately, Bitcoin tracks NASDAQ,” the analyst remarked.

Adding to the skepticism, financial analyst Charlie Morris identified a divergence in ETF flows. While gold-backed funds have seen inflows amid the recent price surge, Bitcoin ETFs are experiencing a substantial downturn.

With Bitcoin trading at around $80,000, the coming months will be crucial in determining whether it can follow gold’s trajectory or continue to underperform. For now, the ongoing debate persists—will Bitcoin establish itself as a long-term store of value, or will gold’s enduring appeal continue to outshine the digital asset’s potential?

A whale wallet on the decentralized exchange (DEX) Hyperliquid has stirred the community by executing a high-leverage short position with a tight liquidation price. This trade caught the attention of other whale groups, triggering an unprecedented public “whale hunt” in the market.

Additionally, Hyperliquid believes that such easily trackable trading activity represents the future of decentralization.

Attempt to Liquidate a High-Leverage Trade Worth Over $420 Million

A whale with the wallet address 0xf3F496C9486BE5924a93D67e98298733Bb47057c opened a 40x leverage Short position on Bitcoin, totaling over $423 million. At the time of writing, its liquidation price stood at $86,198. Currently, the short position is in profit by over $2 million.

This whale has also recently executed large-leverage trades, raising suspicions among experts about potential ties to North Korean hackers.

The massive position size and tight liquidation price caught the attention of a user on X (formerly Twitter) named CBB. He called for a group effort to hunt the whale’s position by pushing BTC’s price higher. In a post on X, he claimed that “eight figures” (millions of dollars) had been committed to the plan.

“If you are willing to hunt this dude with size, drop a DM, setting up a team right now and already got good size,” CBB stated.

CBB also revealed that Justin Sun, founder of Tron (TRX), was part of the group. However, Sun has not officially confirmed this. Additionally, CBB invited Eric Trump, son of President Donald Trump, to join.

The story is still unfolding, and it’s unclear how far CBB’s whale-hunting effort will go. For now, the position remains profitable, and Bitcoin is trading at $83,460, just 3% away from liquidation.

A Kaiko report from early March states that Bitcoin’s 1% market depth is $300 million. This means pushing BTC up by 1% could require at least $300 million in capital.

Many X users are following the event like a high-stakes drama. CryptoVikings believes that the Hyperliquid whale is publicly shorting while simultaneously going long on a centralized exchange (CEX).

“HL whale strategy was simple. Short huge amount at high leverage publicly in Hyperliquid to gain attention. Long in CEX at the same time. He expected MMs and institutions would take out liquidation, pushing BTC $1K above, triggering a short squeeze and a good pump. He would make net profit on his longs. But MMs & exchanges understood the strategy. They first pushed the price down to liquidate his CEX position, then pumped the price much higher to hunt him on both sides,” CryptoVikings predicted.

Hyperliquid has embraced the event, praising public trading transparency as the future of decentralization.

“Hyperliquid has redefined trading. When a whale shorts $450M+ BTC and wants a public audience, it’s only possible on Hyperliquid…Anyone can photoshop a PNL screenshot. No one can question a Hyperliquid position, just like no one can question a Bitcoin balance. The decentralized future is here,” Hyperliquid stated.

The market is watching closely as this whale war continues to unfold.