The price of BTC could be stuck in consolidation for longer than initially anticipated, as the latest on-chain data shows that the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index has dropped back beneath zero. What does this dwindling metric signal for the premier cryptocurrency?

Is The Bitcoin Price At Risk Of Downward Movement?

In a recent post on the X platform, prominent crypto pundit Ali Martinez revealed that the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index has been declining, dropping back below a critical zone in recent days. The Coinbase Premium Index is an on-chain metric that tracks the difference between the BTC price on Coinbase (USD pair) and Binance (USDT pair).

This indicator can also provide insights into the difference in the buying and selling behaviors of the investors on the two crypto trading platforms. The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index reflects the sentiment of the US institutional entities (the major players on Coinbase) and how it differs from those on global exchanges.

Typically, when the Bitcoin price premium on Coinbase rises or is a positive value, it implies increasing demand from US investors, who are willing to spend more than other global investors to purchase the flagship cryptocurrency. On the other hand, the Coinbase Premium Index slipping beneath the zero mark signals that US investors are buying less compared to the global traders.

Source: Ali_charts/X

This low buying activity is highlighted by the drab performance of spot BTC exchange-traded funds in recent weeks. The latest market data shows that the US Bitcoin ETF market registered a total outflow of $559 million in the past week.

With institutional and large US investors not accumulating Bitcoin at current prices, the market leader could struggle to build any real bullish momentum. Historically, a sustained decline of the Coinbase Premium Index metric has been associated with a consolidation period or even potential downside risk for the BTC price in the near term.

BTC Whales Offload Assets

In a separate post on X, Martinez observed that a class of Bitcoin investors has been trimming their holdings in recent weeks. Santiment data shows that whales holding between 10,000 and 100,000 coins have sold 30,000 BTC (worth roughly $2.9 billion) in the past 10 days.

This level of selling activity somewhat explains the sluggish price action of Bitcoin in recent weeks. As of this writing, the price of BTC sits just above the $96,500 mark, reflecting a 0.8% increase in the past 24 hours. The premier cryptocurrency is down by 1.1% in the past week, according to data from CoinGceko.

The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, may be gearing up for another significant Bitcoin purchase.

Speculation around this move intensified after the company’s co-founder, Michael Saylor, dropped a subtle hint on social media.

Market Buzz Over Saylor’s Bitcoin Tracker Post

On February 23, Saylor shared a Bitcoin tracker on X (formerly Twitter), a move that has historically preceded major acquisitions. His cryptic message suggested that recent Bitcoin transactions were not yet reflected in the tracker.

“I don’t think this reflects what I got done last week,” Saylor wrote on X.

Given his history of sharing similar charts before major Bitcoin acquisitions, the crypto community quickly speculated that the firm was preparing for another purchase.

“Michael Saylor posted his BTC purchase tracker again, meaning Strategy will announce another Big Bitcoin purchase tomorrow,” Nikolaus Hoffman said.

Meanwhile, some speculate that Strategy may allocate up to $2 billion for Bitcoin, aligning with its recent move to raise funds through convertible bonds.

These bonds, which carry no interest but can be converted into company stock, are expected to mature in March 2030 and will serve as unsecured senior obligations.

This capital raise is part of Strategy’s “21/21 Plan,” which aims to secure $42 billion for BTC investments. The company seeks to raise $21 billion through equity sales and another $21 billion via fixed-income securities.

Once a software-focused firm, Strategy has evolved into the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. Its pivot has significantly boosted investor interest, earning its stock a spot in the Nasdaq-100.

The firm’s last Bitcoin acquisition occurred on February 10, when it purchased 7,633 BTC for $742.4 million. At present, Strategy holds 478,740 BTC, valued at approximately $47 billion, with an overall investment of $31.1 billion.

Meanwhile, the company recently highlighted that its MSTR convertible bonds have returned 71% since issuance, outperforming Bitcoin itself.

Also, Strategy’s aggressive BTC-first approach has inspired other companies to follow suit. According to HODL15 Capital, over 70 publicly traded firms worldwide have now added Bitcoin to their reserves, influenced by Saylor’s Strategy.

In a wide-ranging discussion on The Culture Bit podcast, Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI) Executive Director and national security expert Matthew Pines gave his latest assessment of the evolving relationship between the Trump administration and Bitcoin. Joined by Simply Bitcoin host Nico Moran and show host Alan Helm, Pines underscored how BTC’s growing influence in Washington has quickly become a key element of US economic and geopolitical strategy.

Trump Is ‘Paying Serious Attention To Bitcoin’

Pines quickly turned to Washington, where the Trump administration has launched several initiatives that place BTC firmly on the federal agenda. In particular, the White House’s recent executive orders have prompted agencies to explore whether the US should establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR), incorporate BTC into a potential sovereign wealth fund, and devise clearer rules around stablecoins.

According to Pines, the prospect of a national BTC reserve, once considered fringe, now carries growing traction: “Trump came in and signed an executive order establishing a President’s Working Group on digital assets, specifically mentioning the idea of a strategic digital asset stockpile,” he said. “They really are studying this issue—this isn’t just lip service. If the US does something significant with Bitcoin, it could have enormous geopolitical implications.”

Pines cautioned that policy development in Washington is slow and deliberate, particularly when it involves multiple agencies, yet he believes momentum is building: “Once the government decides to move on something like this, things can happen quickly,” he noted, “but right now, there are a lot of new officials and nominations settling in. They have to do the homework first.”

Alongside talk of a reserve, the administration has also tasked Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick and Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent to develop the framework for a US Sovereign Wealth Fund, prompting debate over whether it should include Bitcoin.

Pines described how a sovereign wealth fund could broaden support for BTC among influential sectors—such as energy, AI, and defense—since future returns on BTC might finance strategic domestic investments: “If Bitcoin is in the fund, it could align a lot of stakeholders to be pro-Bitcoin, because a rising Bitcoin price directly enhances the fund’s capacity to invest,” he explained.

Yet there remain plenty of details to iron out, not least of which is how to mitigate concerns over BTC’s volatility and how to handle potential pushback from other corners of the “crypto” sector. Pines noted there is lobbying from certain large altcoin organizations to dilute the idea of a strictly BTC reserve and push for a broader “digital asset” focus.

Commenting on the realities of lobbying and politics, Moran underscored how Bitcoiners—many of whom are staunchly anti-establishment—have had to adjust to the newfound necessity of political engagement. “If you think about it, this was always going to happen,” Moran pointed out. “Money itself is inherently political. Bitcoin represents an alternative to central banking. Of course it’s going to become a heated topic in D.C.”

In the final analysis, Pines and Moran both anticipate swift developments in how the Trump administration crafts its digital asset policies. While the exact form of a potential SBR or sovereign wealth fund remains unclear, Pines emphasized that the BPI will continue providing data-driven guidance to policymakers on Capitol Hill and within the administration:

“They really are paying serious attention to Bitcoin, and the window of opportunity to shape policy is right now,” he said. “We want to make sure that policymakers fully understand Bitcoin’s technological underpinnings, its strategic uses, and what it represents for both economic security and individual freedoms.”

Moran echoed that sentiment, underscoring the difference in how Washington now treats BTC relative to just a few years ago: “Last year, we weren’t even in the room. Today, some of the highest-ranking officials in the country own Bitcoin themselves. That changes everything,” he concluded.

At press time, BTC traded at $95,805.

Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com