Approximately $3.12 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options expire today. With the pioneer crypto still below $100,000 this week, will its billion-dollar-plus notional value expiry push the price higher? 

Market watchers are particularly attentive to this event due to its potential to influence short-term trends through the volume of contracts and their notional value. Examining the put-to-call ratios and maximum pain points can provide insights into traders’ expectations and possible market directions.

Insights on Today’s Expiring Bitcoin and Ethereum Options

The notional value of today’s expiring BTC options is $2.56 billion. Deribit’s data shows that the 26,251 expiring Bitcoin options have a put-to-call ratio 0.57. This ratio suggests a prevalence of purchase options (calls) over sales options (puts).

The data also reveals that the maximum pain point for these expiring options is $99,500. The maximum pain point is the price at which the asset will cause the greatest number of holders’ financial losses.

In addition to Bitcoin options, 204,376 Ethereum options contracts are set to expire today. These expiring options have a notional value of $557.04 million, a put-to-call ratio of 0.46, and a maximum pain point of $2,950.

The number of today’s expiring Bitcoin and Ethereum options is significantly lower than last week’s. BeInCrypto reported that last week’s expired BTC options were 80,179 contracts, compared to 603,426 for ETH.

This marginal difference comes from last week’s options, which represented the month’s total. Accordingly, the total number of options expiring surpassed $10 billion.

Ahead of the expiration, options trading tool provider Greeks.live shared its insights into the market. It highlighted the prevailing weak sentiment in the market this week and explained why the max pain levels for BTC and ETH were below the $100,000 and $3,000 levels, respectively.  

“Market sentiment was weaker this week, with ETH’s Maxpain point falling below $3,000 again, with the coin dropping to $2,100 at one point during the session, a new low since 2024, and BTC effectively falling below the $100,000 mark, around which the market has been oscillating in a wide range since it broke above $95,000 in late November,” Greeks.live said.

Against this backdrop, the options trading tool indicates the role of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs in influencing sentiment. As BeInCrypto reported, the trade policies were a key market driver this week, having caused the largest single-day liquidation event in history. Traders remain wary of potential trade wars, which could exacerbate sentiment further.

Therefore, the analysts at Greeks.live ascribe current volatility to these concerns, citing expectations of further market adjustments.

“The market is still digesting the effects of 3 months of Trump Trade, with deliveries accounting for 10% of total positions this week, with call options trading down significantly and Block puts growing as a percentage of volume,” the analysts added.

Nevertheless, the influence of macroeconomics cannot be overlooked. With US Unemployment and Non-Farm Payrolls data for January expected today, traders will be looking for how these macro events influence markets, with overall risk in the crypto sector now more correlated.

“Today’s market movers: An uptick in unemployment could drive interest in Bitcoin as a hedge against economic instability. A drop might see investors favoring traditional markets. Strong payroll numbers could signal economic health, potentially reducing Bitcoin’s safe-haven appeal. Weak numbers might enhance Bitcoin’s attractiveness as an investment during times of economic uncertainty,” crypto analyst Mark Cullen observed.

The Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee advanced the candidacy of Howard Lutnick, a crypto proponent and billionaire entrepreneur, to the position of Commerce secretary by a vote of 16–12.

America’s technological and financial scene undergoes a radical change and a wealthy man with strong ties to cryptocurrencies is leading important national initiatives valued in hundreds of billions of dollars.

Lutnick: Major Tech Programs Hang In The Balance

Lutnick’s appointment places him in charge of the $280 billion CHIPS and Science Act and the massive $42.5 billion BEAD program. These figures don’t only appear on paper; they reflect America’s determined efforts to transform its semiconductor sector and technical infrastructure. With global tech supremacy on the line, the stakes are higher than ever.

Warren’s Crypto Concerns Spark Fierce Debate

The confirmation hasn’t been without its share of fireworks. Senator Elizabeth Warren has thrown down the gauntlet, demanding answers about Lutnick’s ties to Tether, the controversial stablecoin issuer.

Her January 28 letter pulled no punches, questioning everything from Cantor Fitzgerald’s investment in Tether to potential compliance issues. The plot thickened when it emerged that Lutnick’s financial disclosure form detailed assets worth over $806 million and involvement in 800 entities.

Washington is split by the confirmation as Ranking Member Maria Cantwell voted against Lutnick, citing inadequate dedication to current program goals. One thing is evident as this billionaire entrepreneur takes on his new position: the tech and crypto scene of America is set to change and might even completely alter the digital future of the country.

Cruz Champions Tech Policy

While Warren raises red flags, fellow Senator Ted Cruz is upbeat about what he sees as a victory for tech innovation. His vision? A complete reimagining of the BEAD program, moving away from its fiber-optic focus to embrace alternatives like satellite internet and fixed wireless. It’s a stark departure from previous policies, with Cruz dismissing the former Biden administration’s approach as riddled with “lawless conditions.”

WATCH: The Senate Commerce Committee meets to advance Howard Lutnick as Secretary of Commerce and to move critical pieces of legislation, including the Kids Off Social Media Act, the AM Radio for Every Vehicle Act, the Fire Ready Nation Act, and the Illegal Red Snapper and Tuna… pic.twitter.com/FmVwLSkdk6

— Senator Ted Cruz (@SenTedCruz) February 5, 2025

Bitcoin Dreams And Stablecoin Schemes

Lutnick is open about his plans for cryptocurrency. At the 2024 Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, he confidently stated that cryptocurrency is “the future of financial independence.” He wants to require checks for stablecoins and might create a national Bitcoin reserve. This idea has made crypto fans excited but has worried traditional finance regulators.

The newly formed SEC Crypto Task Force, under Commissioner Hester Peirce, will work closely with Lutnick to navigate these uncharted waters.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

El Salvador’s transformation from a nation that was skeptical of cryptocurrency to one that is the staunchest advocate for Bitcoin has been nothing short of extraordinary.

Paper profits exceed $167 million, and the Central American nation currently maintains 6,068 BTC in its treasury, which is almost $600 million in value.

This remarkable turnaround has captivated the attention of both supporters and critics, particularly in light of the International Monetary Fund’s initial opposition to the nation’s courageous cryptocurrency experiment.

The IMF Stance On Crypto

The IMF has recently issued a warning to El Salvador regarding the potential economic consequences of adopting crypto as legal tender.

Recent reports and papers suggest that while financial stability risks from crypto-assets, including Bitcoin, are considered limited at present, there is an ongoing effort to develop comprehensive policies and regulatory frameworks to address potential future risks.

El Salvador has stacked 21 BTC this week!

Total SBR Holdings: 6,068.18 BTC
Total Added Today: +1 BTC
Total Added Past 7 Days: +21 BTC
Total Added Past 30 Days: +60 BTC

The first Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in the world keeps growing and so El… pic.twitter.com/iz2x9CGbuu

— The Bitcoin Office (@bitcoinofficesv) February 4, 2025

This latest perspective occurs as El Salvador continues to exhibit remarkable resilience in its cryptocurrency strategy, despite the fact that it was required to make some concessions in order to secure a $1.4 billion IMF loan.

The director of the ONBTC, Stacy Herbert, stated in December 2024 that they will continue stacking in spite of the IMF’s reservations and policy changes, perhaps at “a faster pace” and at a “discount.”

Bitcoin: A Strategic Turning Point

Some observers may have perceived the recent policy adjustments mandated by the IMF as a setback. It was necessary for El Salvador to reduce certain aspects of its Bitcoin laws, such as the requirement for businesses to accept cryptocurrency payments and the discontinuation of crypto tax settlements.

It was also necessary for the government to withdraw from its involvement in the state-operated Chivo wallet. Nevertheless, El Salvador’s dedication to Bitcoin remains unwavering, despite these amendments.

Big Players Join The Fray

The increasing interest from major economic powers in establishing their own crypto reserves is perhaps the most intriguing development. According to reports, the United States, Brazil, and Germany are currently investigating the establishment of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, a development that would have been unimaginable only a few years ago.

This change in perspective from major economies could potentially make it more difficult for international financial institutions to discourage smaller nations from following suit and validate El Salvador’s early adoption.

Future Prospects And Global Implications

El Salvador continues to accumulate Bitcoin at a remarkable rate, despite the fact that it has scaled back some of its more ambitious Bitcoin initiatives in order to secure IMF funding. The National Bitcoin Office recently disclosed that the nation acquired 60 BTC last month, with 20 of those acquisitions occurring within a single week.

This aggressive purchasing strategy, in conjunction with reports that the country is acquiring discounted BTC price through US government auctions of seized cryptocurrency, indicates that El Salvador’s Bitcoin aspirations are far from over.

The compelling aspect of this narrative is its challenge to the prevailing belief that minor nations have the capacity to impact global financial trends. Despite initial skepticism and pressure from international institutions, El Salvador’s steadfastness in its crypto strategy may prove to be a turning point in the history of digital currency adoption.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView