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US DXY Decline Below 200 MA Sparks Speculation of Crypto Rally

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The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen below its 200-day moving average (MA) for the first time since November, marking a significant shift in the currency’s trajectory.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to hold above the psychological level of $90,000. It defends against further downside ahead of Friday’s crypto summit.

US DXY Slips Below 200-Day MA

Over the past three trading days, the DXY has dropped by more than 3%. The move saw it slip below the 200-day MA for the first time in over three months. In trading, losing the support offered by the moving average generally suggests weakening momentum and is a bearish signal.

DXY Slips below 200-day MA
DXY Slips below 200-day MA. Source: TradingView

This decline in the DXY has fueled speculation about potential bullish momentum for risk assets. Lark Davis, a renowned crypto analyst, weighed in on the development. He states that the weakening dollar and an expanding global money supply are bullish for digital assets.

Davis highlighted that the US government is working toward establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve. This could further reinforce positive sentiment for Bitcoin and the crypto market. However, the analyst cautioned that short-term volatility remains a possibility despite the favorable long-term outlook.

“However, it doesn’t mean things can’t get worse before they start getting better. Patience is key here,” Davis added.

Historical Precedents and the Crypto Bull Run Thesis

Dan Gambardello, another well-known analyst, pointed to historical patterns. He pointed to a similar DXY decline during the last cycle, which triggered a parabolic bull run in the crypto market.

“This DXY fractal might be the most important fractal in crypto,” Gambardello observed.  

Further, the analyst emphasized that the current market fundamentals are significantly stronger than in the past. If history repeats itself, he said, Bitcoin and altcoins could be poised for a substantial rally.

“Last cycle, this move triggered a parabolic bull run. This time, fundamentals are 100x stronger,” the analyst added.

Meanwhile, the weakening of the US dollar has been partially attributed to President Donald Trump’s trade policies. Mister Spread, a trader and market analyst, explained that Trump’s tariff strategies exert downward pressure on the DXY while forcing the Federal Reserve’s hand.

“His calls for ‘more rate cuts’ didn’t move the Fed much, so he’s using tariffs as an alternative strategy,” the trader suggested.

Further, the analyst detailed how tariffs create economic uncertainty, which could slow growth and lead to the Fed cutting interest rates. Lower interest rates weaken the dollar, making US assets less attractive to investors seeking higher yields.

Meanwhile, technical analysts are also monitoring key levels for the DXY. The 105.3 level, previously a support, has now flipped to resistance. The next critical short-term target is 103.7, and if that level is breached, a further decline toward the 99.6 area could be on the horizon.

DXY Support Levels Below 200-day MA
DXY Support Levels Below 200-day MA. Source: TradingView

Below 99.6, the DXY could see a steeper drop, potentially accelerating capital flows into alternative assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Analysts also point to the growing global M2 money supply as a catalyst for a potential Bitcoin rally. As BeInCrypto reported, analysts say the correlation between M2 money supply expansion and Bitcoin’s price suggests that a major upward movement could occur by late March.

This aligns with the historical trend where increased liquidity in the financial system favors risk assets, including Bitcoin. However, traders must still conduct their own research.  

BTC Price Performance
BTC Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

BeInCrypto data shows BTC was trading for $91,293 as of this writing, after a modest 1.62% surge since Thursday’s session opened.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Bitcoin Holders are More Profitable Than Ethereum Since 2023

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New data from Glassnode suggests that Bitcoin’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) has been higher than Ethereum’s for 812 consecutive days. This means that the average BTC investor has accumulated much larger profits than their ETH counterpart since 2023.

Due to recent losses, Ethereum’s MVRV actually fell below 1.0, suggesting that the average investor has lost money. It may be undervalued and well-posed for a resurgence, but this will take time.

Bitcoin vs Ethereum: Which is More Profitable?

Despite a few recent market turmoils, the price of Bitcoin is doing reasonably well right now. Although much of its gains since Trump’s election have been wiped out, its pre-election value spent most of 2024 at a shelf near its previous all-time high.

According to new data from Glassnode, Bitcoin’s investor profitability is far above Ethereum’s.

“Since November 2022 (FTX collapse), Bitcoin’s realized cap has grown by $468 billion (+117%), while Ethereum’s increased by just $61 billion (+32%). Bitcoin investors have held consistently larger unrealized profits than #Ethereum holders since January 2023. BTC investor profitability has exceeded ETH for 812 consecutive days – an all-time record,” Glassnode said.

Glassnode came to these conclusions by analyzing both tokens’ MVRV and their ratio of market value to realized value. This metric compares the listed price of Bitcoin and Ethereum to the actual price at which these tokens were most recently traded.

Despite maintaining similar MVRVs for a prolonged period, Bitcoin is plowing well ahead today:

Bitcoin and Ethereum MVRV
Bitcoin and Ethereum MVRV. Source: Glassnode

While Bitcoin has been more volatile than Ethereum, the altcoin has seen a much smaller uptick during bullish cycles. For instance, in the latest bull run between October and December 2024, Bitcoin surged by nearly 70%.

In the same period, Ethereum’s price increase was less than 50%. Yet, if we look at the drop during the current market downturn, BTC lost 3% in the first week of April, while ETH lost over 15%.

Meanwhile, the altcoin’s investor sentiment is also dropping. Major whales who HODL’ed the token for many years are now selling their ETH holdings.

Also, the average Bitcoin holder enjoys an MVRV of around 2.0, meaning that they have huge unrealized gains. Most of their counterparts have an MVRV below 1.0, signifying that they have lost money. These data points are concerning, especially for the median ETH holder.

However, there’s a silver lining. Ethereum recently fell to a yearly low, but there’s also a strong uptick of new investors. New developments, like the SEC approving ETH ETF options trading, could spur a recovery.

In other words, Ethereum may be highly undervalued and, therefore, an attractive investment.

Still, for the time being, Bitcoin holders are in a much better position than ETH holders. Ethereum is still the second-largest cryptoasset by market cap, and it can always make a comeback. This will almost certainly pose a significant challenge.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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This is Why Hoskinson Thinks Bitcoin Will Hit $250,000 in 2025

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Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson believes that Bitcoin can reach $250,000 by the end of the year. He thinks that tariffs are already priced in and future annoucements will be a ‘dud’ for the crypto market.

In the short term, he claimed that crypto markets will stall for three to five months as TradFi finds a new normal. Afterward, Bitcoin’s ability to transcend borders will give it a leg up over trade organizations and legacy banks.

Why Is Hoskinson Betting on Bitcoin?

The threat of Trump’s tariffs has caused a lot of turmoil in the crypto markets lately. The crypto market was always volatile, but the on-and-off tariffs introduced a new level of chaotic volatility for digital assets.

However, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson is staking out a bold claim, stating that Bitcoin could rise to $250,000:

“Crypto benefits in the long term. Your only option for globalization is crypto. If you want to business with countries the US, Russia, [or] China doesn’t like… you can no longer do that through trade organizations or legacy banks. You can only do that through crypto. I think Bitcoin will be over $250,000 by the end of this year or next year,” Hoskinson predicted.

Essentially, Hoskinson’s bullish case for Bitcoin’s price gains is tied to the industry’s roots, which are decentralization and anonymity. Bitcoin was created in the aftermath of the 2008 crash, and it was intended to circumvent the often unfair overreach of traditional financial institutions.

If Trump’s tariffs lead to a breakdown in the global system of trade, Bitcoin could fill that void.

Naturally, Bitcoin already has a major use case in helping countries avoid US sanctions, but that doesn’t represent the entirety of Hoskinson’s argument. Ironically, in the short term, he believes that the tariffs will be a “dud.”

The Cardano founder thinks that markets will adjust to the new state of affairs, pouring cheap money into crypto. US stablecoin regulation will also help this process.

However, these short-term gains are just one piece of the puzzle. Hoskinson believes that tariffs, the Russo-Ukraine War, and other factors are all major contributors to this global breakdown that will help Bitcoin.

Crypto is currently more well-integrated into TradFi than ever, making it vulnerable to a wide array of macroeconomic concerns.

The industry is also gaining users quickly, with the total number of holders increasing 13% year over year. Bitcoin’s user base can take advantage of what Hoskinson calls “a huge wave of speculative interest” towards the end of the year.

The asset’s international positioning will keep it from being too reliant on this speculation forever.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Florida Bitcoin Reserve Bill Passes House With Zero Votes Against

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Florida’s Insurance and Banking Subcommittee unanimously passed a bill supporting a state-level Bitcoin Reserve. It will now head to the legislature. This is the first state Bitcoin reserve bill to pass the House committee with zero votes against it.

Although most of the initial comments were highly skeptical due to recent market chaos and fiscal conservatism, state sponsor Webster Barnaby and other supporters won them over.

Florida Advances in the State Race for a Bitcoin Reserve

Over the last few months, a spate of Bitcoin Reserve bills has swept through US state legislatures. Although these initiatives have seen setbacks due to funding concerns, they have also had noteworthy successes.

Today, the US crypto industry can count on another win, as Florida’s Insurance and Banking Subcommittee unanimously voted to approve a Bitcoin Reserve:

“Bitcoin Strategic Bill Passes House Committee unanimously. Today’s remarks was a historical moment, and I am proud to have been a part of it with Samuel Armes and Florida. Bitcoin is the PEOPLES currency,” claimed Joshua Jake, who spoke in favor of the initiative.

Florida’s Bitcoin Reserve bill also marks a new milestone, even if it’s only a Subcommittee vote. This bill passed with complete bipartisan support, without a single Democrat siding against the bill.

One of the Representatives either abstained or was absent, but everyone present was swayed by the argument.

The bill proposes that the Flordia state government invest $1.5 billion in public funds to build a strategic BTC reserve.

Although the Subcommittee hearing was initially skeptical, partially due to recent tariff-imposed chaos, sponsor Webster Barnaby maintained an impassioned defense.

By the end, he and the Bitcoin Reserve bill’s other supporters had wholly won over this Florida Subcommittee. From here, it will head to the legislature.

Over 30 states have proposed reserve bills so far. Arizona is currently leading the race, with both of its Bitcoin bills reaching the final stage and waiting for a decision from the Senate.

Active Bitcoin Reserve Bills Across US States
Active Bitcoin Reserve Bills Across US States. Source: Bitcoin Laws

Meanwhile, similar bills have already failed in five states, including Montana and Wyoming. The fact that Florida’s House Committee showed unanimous support could provide the state with an edge in this race.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.





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