Crypto analysts have used several on-chain metrics and indicators to analyze whether or not the Bitcoin top is already in for this bull run. This time, crypto analyst Thomas has alluded to USDT’s dominance to determine Bitcoin’s market top. 

How USDT’s Dominance Predicts The Top For Bitcoin

Thomas claimed in an X (formerly Twitter) post that USDT dominance has predicted every Bitcoin local top for the last six years. He noted that there has always been a clear local top for Bitcoin each time the USDT dominance touches the bottom of a trendline, which the analyst highlighted on the chart. Thomas added that anyone who used this metric would have sold the top every time in the previous cycles. 

The crypto analyst said it makes sense that USDT’s dominance can be used to predict Bitcoin’s top since the trend of USDT-D over a longer timeframe should be positive, as coin distribution happens over time. He added that the USDT-D is significant as the market is governed by swaps in and out of stablecoins.

Meanwhile, Thomas mentioned that USDT dominance can also be applied inversely and used to predict the local bottom for Bitcoin. He noted that it was also used to predict every local bottom for the previous bear markets. The analyst admitted that the USDT.D doesn’t necessarily give a precise estimate of the bottom, although he added that it “gives a good ballpark.”

The Local Top May Already Be In For Bitcoin

Based on the chart Thomas shared, Bitcoin’s local top may already be in, seeing as the USDT.D has again touched the trendline the analyst referred to. When quizzed by one of his followers about whether that was the case and whether Bitcoin was heading for new lows, Thomas replied that wasn’t necessarily what was going to happen, as the market can go back up and tap the lower end of the USDT.D chart, just like it did in the last bull run. 

The analyst is optimistic this will happen, as he said that he thinks the market will retest the support line “a few times over the coming months.” This would ultimately mean that Bitcoin has more room to run in this market cycle before reaching its bull run peak. Other crypto analysts, like Rekt Capital, have already affirmed that the cycle top isn’t yet in and that historical trends suggest that the market top will come sometime next year. 

In the meantime, Thomas revealed that he will use the USDT.D trendline to guide his longer-term trades in BTC/ETH. He plans to buy whenever USDT’s dominance is at the top of the trendline and sell whenever it hits the bottom. 

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $56,400, up over 4% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

The cryptocurrency market has taken an interesting turn in the last few days, with the price of Bitcoin enduring an intense amount of bearish pressure. On Thursday, July 4, the premier cryptocurrency broke below the $60,000 mark, falling as low as $57,000.

BTC continued its price descent on Friday, with the market leader traveling down below $54,000 at some point. This disappointing price run has been linked to various events, including government selloffs and potential selling after news of the Mt. Gox payout.

Government Bitcoin Selling Is Overestimated: CryptoQuant CEO

In a new post on the X platform, CryptoQuant CEO and founder Ki Young Ju has weighed in on the recent reports of nations’ governments offloading seized BTC assets. Most notably, the German government has been executing various transactions involving significant amounts of Bitcoin in recent weeks.

The FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) from the recent selloffs is believed to be one of the major drivers of the current downward pressure on the Bitcoin price. However, the CryptoQuant CEO believes that the impact of the government selling seized BTC assets is being over-inflated.

This evaluation is based on the realized cap of Bitcoin in about a year. According to CryptoQuant data, $224 billion has moved into the market since 2023, but only $9 billion (less than 5%) is from government-seized BTC. It is worth noting, though, that this data only accounts for Bitcoin seized by the United States and German governments.

Source: Ki Young Ju/X

Young Ju noted in his post that the realized cap here represents the total capital that has flowed into the market since 2023. The “realized” cap differs from the more traditional “market” cap in that it is based on the price of each coin when it last moved.

In a separate post on X, the founder reiterated faith in the long-term promise of the premier cryptocurrency, stating that the Bitcoin bull cycle is not over yet. According to the blockchain firm CEO, the bull run will likely continue until early next year.

What’s more, Young Ju was able to pinpoint the potential top of the Bitcoin cycle using the realized cap metric. The CryptoQuant founder expects the premier cryptocurrency to reach its peak in this cycle around the $112,000 price level.

BTC Price At A Glance

The price of Bitcoin recovered above $56,000 in the late hours of Friday, July 5, and is trading at $56,400 as of this writing. Nevertheless, the market leader is still down by nearly 6% in the last seven days.

BTC price at $56,401 on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

The cost of producing a Bitcoin is taking a toll on Bitcoin miners whose machines are struggling to yield profits due to the flagship digital asset’s price difficulties.

According to data platform MacroMicro, the average cost of mining a single BTC at the start of June soared to $83,668 but slightly declined to around $72,000 as of July 2.

Bitcoin Mining Machines Becoming Unprofitable

James Butterfill, CoinShares’ head of digital research, shared data showing that Bitcoin price was hovering around the average production cost during the April halving event. Per the data, half of the 14 identified miners, including Bit Digital and Riot Platforms, spend above the average cost to produce their BTC, while Tether-backed Bitdeer and Hut8 spend below average.

Read more: Making Passive Income From Crypto Mining: How to Get Started

This situation was further confirmed by F2Pool, a Bitcoin mining pool operator. It stated that only ASIC machines with more than 23 W/T efficiency were profitable as of July 4.

According to F2Pool data, only six Bitcoin mining machines, including Antminer S21 Hydro, Antminer S21, and Avalon A1466I, are profitable at break-even Bitcoin prices of $39,581, $43,292, and $48,240, respectively. Similarly, other machines like the Antminer S19 XP Hydro, Antminer S19 XP, and Whatsminer M56S++ are profitable, with Bitcoin prices exceeding $51,456, $53,187, and $54,424, respectively.

However, Bitcoin mining difficulty dropped significantly on July 5, marking one of the most notable declines since the FTX collapse. F2Pool explained that this could make more machines profitable. They stated that at a BTC price of $54,000, ASICs with unit power of 26 W/T or less would become profitable. They added that they estimate energy costs at $0.07 per kWh.

Read more: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030

Last week, BeInCrypto reported that Bitcoin miners were nearing capitulation levels last seen during the FTX exchange collapse. Consequently, Miners switched off unprofitable machines and intensified selling activities, offloading approximately 30,000 BTC, valued at $2 billion, last month.

“All the miners operating well below their profit points are finally decommissioning their inefficient machines or exiting the industry entirely. […] Presumably many held on for much longer than expected because they anticipated a significant price rise in bitcoin that more than compensated,” explained Con Kolivas, the admin of Solo CKPool.