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Stay At Alert! Bitcoin Bear Market Could Begin In 90 Days — Here’s Why

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Following such a historic run in the past two years, it was only a matter of time before the projections for a Bitcoin bear market took over crypto discussions. Several pundits and experts have shared when they think the digital asset market will reach its cycle top and probably witness a reversal.

While the crowd is still fairly optimistic about the potential of various cryptocurrencies, the market moving in the opposite direction won’t come as a surprise. A popular crypto trader on the social media platform has echoed a similar sentiment, providing a possible timing for the arrival of the crypto bear market.

Why The Bear Market Could Begin In April

In a Jan. 25 post on the X platform, prominent crypto analyst Ali Martinez shared his “unpopular opinion” about the current Bitcoin bull cycle and its potential end. According to the pundit, the bear market could commence in approximately three months.

The reasoning behind this projection is the historical price performance of Bitcoin across different halving cycles. The Bitcoin halving, an event that occurs approximately every four years, tightens Bitcoin’s supply by slashing the mining reward by half.

As seen in 2024 — the most recent halving year, the halving event has historically been a precursor to substantial price growth. However, post-halving rallies are typically followed by significant profit-taking, leading to market consolidation and a bear market.

Bitcoin

Source: Ali_charts/X

From a historical standpoint, approximately 276 days after the halving event have proven to be pivotal in the trajectory of the Bitcoin market. Specifically, the Bitcoin price experienced significant price growth after crossing the 276-day milestone in the 2012 -2016 halving cycle.

However, the BTC market witnessed a shift in sentiment and a severe market downturn 367 days following halving — 91 days after the 276-day milestone. If this historical pattern holds, investors could see the bear market commence sometime in late April.

As of this writing, the price of BTC sits just beneath the $105,000 mark, reflecting no significant movement in the past day.

Retail Interest On The Rise?

While historical price data is an effective way of analyzing a cycle’s trajectory, on-chain data is another method that sheds light on cyclical price movements.  One such data is the retail interest in Bitcoin, which measures the demand of small-scale investors in the premier cryptocurrency.

Related Reading: MicroStrategy May Face Tax Issues Over $19 Billion Unrealized Bitcoin Gains: Report

Typically, demand from retail investors is often correlated with the peak euphoria phase. “Looking at past cycles, the last two major spikes in searches for “how to buy crypto” occurred when BTC was around $65,000 in May 2021 and $69,000 in November 2021—right at the market top,” Martinez said in a separate post on X.

Bitcoin

Source: Ali_charts/X

As shown in the chart above, the “interest over time” indicator seems to be picking up again in 2025. This could be a signal of an impending top for the crypto market.

Bitcoin

The price of Bitcoin on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

 

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView



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BlackRock Buys $1 Billion in Bitcoin: What’s Next?

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Investment manager BlackRock purchased $1 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) last week, bringing the total market value of its Bitcoin investments to $60.6 billion.

This milestone was significantly influenced by its largest Bitcoin purchase of 2025, made on January 22.

BlackRock’s $1 Billion Bitcoin Purchase

According to the blockchain intelligence platform Arkham Intelligence, BlackRock’s total holdings now stand at 572,616 Bitcoins.

“THEY NOW HOLD 2.7% OF THE TOTAL BTC SUPPLY,” Arkham posted on X.

This came after the investment giant acquired BTC worth $600 million on January 22, marking its biggest purchase so far this year.

Meanwhile, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) continues to dominate the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) sector. After encountering a few record outflows this month, IBIT made a strong recovery on January 24, surpassing $1 billion in trading volume within the first two hours.

According to the latest data from SoSo Value, on January 24, IBIT recorded a net inflow of $155.69 million, with cumulative inflows reaching $39.73 billion. The ETF also traded volumes worth $2.78 billion on the same day.

Thus, it’s not a surprise that IBIT has emerged as the fastest-growing ETF ever. In addition, it topped the top 20 US ETF launches of all time in 2024, according to Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart.

Notably, the firm carries the same vision for 2025. In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Robert Mitchnick, BlackRock’s Head of Digital Assets, highlighted the success of IBIT and the broader adoption of Bitcoin

He emphasized that while 2024 was an exceptional year for the ETF, Bitcoin adoption remains in its early stages. 

“As we come into year two now, we are focused on a lot of the same stuff that we were in year one. We are still quite early days in terms of the adoption of wealth advisory and the institutional segment, Mitchnick said.” 

Interestingly, CEO Larry Fink has also predicted that widespread adoption could propel Bitcoin prices to unprecedented levels, ranging between $500,000 and $700,000 per BTC.

Despite BlackRock’s bold moves, Bitcoin had a rough start to the week, with its price dipping below the $100,000 mark. At the time of writing, the largest cryptocurrency was trading at $99,090. This reflected a 5.6% decline over the past 24 hours.

blackrock bitcoin holdings
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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DeepSeek Emerges as Potential Black Swan Event for Crypto

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Chinese AI startup DeepSeek has sent shockwaves through global financial markets. As the narrative goes mainstream, Bitcoin and crypto markets recorded a bloodbath on Monday, with nearly $1 billion in total liquidations.

Founded less than two years ago, DeepSeek has risen to prominence, positioning itself as a competitor to established AI giants like OpenAI, Meta, and Nvidia.

Crypto Market in Turmoil Amid DeepSeek Hype

The unveiling of DeepSeek has coincided with a sharp sell-off in the crypto market. Bitcoin (BTC) dropped over 5% in a matter of hours, with major altcoins seeing even steeper declines of 8–10%. According to data on Coinglass, in the past 24 hours, 316,282 traders were liquidated, with the total liquidations reaching $861.48 million as of this writing.

Total Liquidations
Total Liquidations. Source: CoinglTotal Liquidations

Some ascribe the latest market crash to DeepSeek’s growing popularity and its implications for the stock market. Among them was Ash Crypto, an industry veteran who attributed this volatility to broader market reactions stemming from DeepSeek’s ascent.

“This has nothing to do with the crypto market and everything to do with the US stock market,” he explained.

Ash Crypto linked the crypto downturn to a reevaluation of overvalued tech stocks in light of DeepSeek’s competitive edge. Similarly, Ran Neuner, founder of Crypto Banter, issued a stark warning about the potential ripple effects of DeepSeek’s emergence.

He argued that the wealth generated by AI and tech stocks in recent years has been a significant driver of risk-on investment in crypto markets.

“If these stocks take a hit, people will lose fortunes, and this could crash all risk markets as people scramble out of risk,” Neuner said.

The crypto analyst described the situation as a potential “black swan” event. These remarks, among others, highlight how DeepSeek’s rise has unsettled markets.

DeepSeek Emerges as a Disruptive Competitor

With a development cost of under $10 million, DeepSeek has emerged as a disruptive competitor, sparking debate among experts about its long-term implications. Adam Kobeissi, founder of The Kobeissi Letter, highlighted DeepSeek’s unprecedented growth.

Kobeissi contrasted it with OpenAI’s decade-long journey and multibillion-dollar funding, posing a pointed rhetoric on X (formerly Twitter).

“OpenAI was founded 10 years ago, has 4,500 employees, and has raised $6.6 billion in capital. DeepSeek was founded less than 2 years ago, has 200 employees, and was developed for less than $10 million. How are these two companies now competitors?” he wrote.  

The disruptive nature of DeepSeek has led Kobeissi to conclude that no company is safe from AI competition. Tommy Shaughnessy of Delphi Ventures echoed this sentiment, emphasizing DeepSeek’s potential to reshape the AI playing field.

He noted that the platform’s open-source nature could catalyze innovation at the application layer, which, in his opinion, could drive a shift away from reliance on costly infrastructure like Nvidia GPUs.

“DeepSeek ensures an open-source future… forcing all AI labs to accelerate innovation,” he said.

Of note is that the AI crypto segment also suffered in the aftermath of DeepSeek’s rise. Data on CoinGecko shows the market capitalization of AI crypto tokens is down by almost 13% to $36.4 billion.

AI Crypto Tokens Market Cap
AI Crypto Tokens Market Cap. Source: CoinGecko

This slump is likely amid speculation of the implications for GPU demand, which is often a driving fundamental for AI projects. Against this backdrop, Shaughnessy warns that this transformation could destabilize markets, particularly as investors reevaluate the valuations of hardware providers like Nvidia.

Indeed, beyond its low development cost, DeepSeek’s appeal also lies in its efficiency. Unlike traditional AI models, which require significant computational resources, DeepSeek is designed to operate with a fraction of the infrastructure. This raises questions about the long-term viability of high-cost providers like Nvidia and OpenAI.

Kyledoops, a technical analyst at Crypto Banter, tied the market reaction to macroeconomic factors, particularly the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision on interest rates. He suggested that the Fed’s stance could either exacerbate or alleviate market jitters:

“BTC is plummeting today due to China’s AI DeepSeek triggering market reactions. Could the FOMC meeting become a catalyst for a market move that leaves the bears in disbelief?” Kyledoops wrote.

Despite the immediate market turbulence, some experts see long-term opportunities in the intersection of AI and crypto. Shaughnessy emphasized the potential for intelligent applications and agents to transform industries, driving innovation and value creation at the application layer.

Neuner, while acknowledging the risks, also highlighted the potential for this disruption to force governments to reassess monetary policy.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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US Economic Data to Watch: Bitcoin Volatility Expected

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Crypto market participants have a lot to look forward to this week, with 5 US economic data due for release starting Tuesday. The market is already abuzz, anticipating the implication of these events on Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto markets in general.

The influence of US macro data on Bitcoin continues to remain apparent after a period of dissipated or dried-up effect in 2023.

Consumer Confidence

The first US economic event with crypto implications this week is the consumer confidence survey on Tuesday, January 28. This survey reflects likely spending trends, showcasing consumer attitudes, buying intentions, and vacation plans, among other things.

There is a median forecast of 106.3 after the previous 104.7. Enhanced consumer confidence would suggest that people are open to spending more money, hence increasing economic activity. This would potentially drive more investments into cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

Conversely, a pullback in consumer confidence could lead to decreased spending and investment. It would support a more dovish path for the Federal Reserve (Fed), leading to increased liquidity in the financial system.

This may be favorable for Bitcoin as investors seek alternative stores of value and hedges against inflation. Therefore, the Tuesday data will be important for crypto markets, measuring how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are about the overall state of the economy.

FOMC and Fed Chair’s Speech

Beyond consumer confidence, crypto markets are also watching the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision on Wednesday, January 29. It marks the first FOMC decision after President Donald Trump took office, making it an interesting watch.

“Trump is demanding rate cuts, but Powell’s signaling no change. This showdown could rock the markets,” crypto trader Roger Smith quipped.

Policymakers recently expressed concerns about inflationary pressures, particularly tied to Trump’s proposed fiscal policies. During their last meeting, FOMC minutes provided little indication of a potential rate cut in the near term, further solidifying the Fed’s hawkish stance. As BeInCrypto reported, this stance exerted downward pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Interest Rate Probabilities
Interest Rate Probabilities. Source: CME FedWatch tool

Against this backdrop, the CME FedWatch tool shows a 99.5% probability of a 25-basis-point (0.5% bps) rate cut. As this would signify a no rate change, the focus will be on the press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. With these, traders and investors are expecting higher volatility amid market-moving insights from the Fed chair.

“I’ll decide that after Wednesday, January 29, 2024, FOMC interest-rate decision 2:00 pm ET – Fed Chair Powell press conference 2:30 pm ET. No position at the moment but I see a small chance for positive,” one trader said.

Noteworthy, the Fed has a dual mandate — to keep the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of inflation, increasing by 2% per year and to maintain full employment in the economy.

GDP

The US GDP (Gross Domestic Data) report will be out on Thursday, January 30, adding to the list of US economic data to watch this week. The median forecast is 2.5% after the previous reading of 3.1%. This data measures the total value of goods and services produced in a country.

A positive GDP revision could signal a strong and growing economy. This would prompt investors to allocate more capital towards riskier assets such as Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Conversely, a downward revision may lead to a shift in investor sentiment, resulting in a temporary decline in crypto prices.

Initial Jobless Claims

Crypto markets will also be keen on the initial jobless claims report on Thursday, which will provide insight into the health of the US labor market. Notably, the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits recently ticked up. However, it appeared to be steadying near a level consistent with a gradual cooling of the labor market. This is what set the stage for the Fed’s openness to rate cuts.

The previous data came in at 223,000, with a current middle projection of 225,000. A higher-than-expected number of jobless claims could indicate economic instability and uncertainty. In turn, this would lead investors to seek alternative assets like Bitcoin as a form of hedging against traditional markets.

On the other hand, a decrease in jobless claims could boost investor confidence in traditional markets, potentially diverting funds away from cryptocurrencies. Fed officials are also keen on the labor market, cognizant of the risks that come with waiting too long to cut rates.

Personal Income and PCE Index

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the personal income, spending, PCE index, and core PCE on Friday. Weaker personal income and spending, coupled with softer inflation figures, could signal a slowdown in economic activity.  

In response to this, the Federal Reserve may consider pausing interest rates to stimulate borrowing and spending and boost economic growth.  

Meanwhile, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, will be a key indicator of inflation. A higher-than-expected core PCE index could indicate rising inflationary pressures.

This would prompt investors to diversify their portfolios by investing in assets like Bitcoin, which is seen as a hedge against inflation. Conversely, a lower core PCE index could lead to a decrease in demand for cryptocurrencies as investors flock to more stable investment options.

BTC Price Performance
BTC Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

Ahead of these US economic events, BeInCrypto data shows BTC was trading for $100,355, down almost 5% since Monday’s session opened.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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