The growing prominence of spot Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds) is reshaping the crypto market. A CryptoQuant analyst, MAC_D, has revealed that these funds now control 5.33% of the total mined BTC supply — a significant leap from the 3.15% recorded in January.

This marks an addition of 425,000 BTC within ten months, highlighting the rising demand for physically-backed Bitcoin ETFs. 

Bitcoin ETF Accumulation Drives BTC Price Growth

The analyst highlights a strong correlation between the accumulation of Bitcoin by spot ETFs and its price movements. This trend was particularly evident during Bitcoin’s price surges in March and November, fueled by significant ETF inflows and positive market sentiment. 

“Spot ETF volume increased by +425,000 BTC to 629,900 BTC → 1.0545 million BTC in January when trading began. This is an increase of 2.18% in just 10 months, or 3.15% → 5.33% of the total mined supply of 19.78 million BTC. Looking at March and November, which showed dramatic price increases, we can see that there is a strong correlation between the increase in accumulation and price,” the analyst explained in a post on X.

Indeed, in March, US-listed Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $4 billion, propelling trading volumes to $111 billion — a nearly threefold increase from February. During the same period, Bitcoin’s price surged to a then-record high of over $73,777 on Coinbase.

Similarly, in November, following Donald Trump’s reelection and heightened expectations of regulatory support for crypto, Bitcoin soared past $93,265 on Binance, marking its highest-ever valuation. 

“The more Bitcoin is accumulated in spot ETFs, the stronger the price becomes,” MAC_D added. 

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) continues to dominate the spot ETF market. Recent data shows the fund has surpassed $40 billion in assets, accounting for over $3 billion of net inflows since November 6.

While the broader US Bitcoin ETF market displayed mixed performance this week, IBIT added $2 billion in net inflows, consolidating its leadership. 

Overall, US Bitcoin ETFs registered $2.4 billion in inflows during the first half of last week. However, redemptions on Thursday and Friday trimmed the week’s net inflows to $1.6 billion as shown above. 

Regulatory Tailwinds Bolster ETF Adoption

The surge in Bitcoin ETF adoption is closely tied to changing regulatory frameworks. Recently, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved Bitcoin ETF options. This milestone aligned with recent progress from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which cleared the spot Bitcoin options trading path.

More recently, the SEC and CFTC approved the listing of eco-conscious 7RCC Bitcoin and Carbon Credit Futures ETF. Taken together, these developments further legitimized spot Bitcoin ETFs, enhancing their appeal to institutional investors. This regulatory backing has played a pivotal role in fostering trust and driving capital into the market. 

Optimism surrounding a favorable regulatory environment under the new US administration has also buoyed the inflows into Bitcoin ETFs further. In turn, it has amplified expectations of policies supportive of the digital asset industry, further accelerating Bitcoin adoption via ETFs.  BeInCrypto recently reported that Bitcoin ETFs are now in 60% of top us hedge fund portfolios.

The role of macroeconomic factors, such as Federal Reserve policy and US elections, cannot be overlooked. As the Fed’s monetary tightening cools, risk-on assets like Bitcoin are regaining favor.

Looking ahead, analysts predict that the increasing adoption of spot Bitcoin ETFs could pave the way for Bitcoin’s recognition as a reserve asset. Should the US government adopt this trend, the inflow into ETFs is expected to rise even further, solidifying Bitcoin’s position in global finance. 

Meanwhile, the growing share of Bitcoin held by spot ETFs has broader implications for the crypto market. By controlling over 5% of Bitcoin’s supply, these funds are stabilizing liquidity while potentially reducing market volatility.

Nevertheless, there are concerns about institutional control over Bitcoin, as this would be contrary to the pioneer cryptocurrency’s original decentralization ethos.

“Does this not defeat the whole purpose of “decentralization”? BlackRock will be the biggest hodler, it doesn’t get much more centralized than that,” one X user quipped.

Crypto markets have several US economic data to look forward to this week. The events have the potential to influence traders’ and investors’ sentiment and, therefore, trading strategies, with volatility likely to follow.

As traders position themselves for possible volatility, Bitcoin (BTC) is holding above the $90,000 psychological level as of this writing.

Initial Jobless Claims

The US Department of Labor releases weekly jobless claims data, tracking individuals applying for unemployment benefits. This week’s report, set for Thursday, Nov. 21, follows initial claims for the week ending Nov. 16 totaling 217,000. This figure came in below the expected 223,000 and marked a decrease from the prior week’s unrevised count of 221,000.

“Jobless claims (LEADING Indicator) continue to suggest the labor market is very healthy,” said $15.6 billion AUM Richard Bernstein Advisors.

The latest jobless claims figures indicate steady demand for workers, even after recent disruptions from storms and strikes. If this downward trend persists, it may signal an easing of economic challenges and a strengthening labor market. This could boost consumer spending and confidence, potentially benefiting financial markets.

When jobless claims decrease, it suggests that more people are employed or able to find work. The result is higher disposable income and increased investment in assets like Bitcoin.

S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI

The S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for November is due for release on Friday. It is a key economic indicator measuring the performance and health of the US manufacturing sector. With a previous reading of 48.5 and a 48.8 consensus forecast, this metric is among the US macroeconomic indicators on the watchlist this week.

A higher PMI reading typically indicates expansion in the manufacturing industry, thus strong economic growth and increased manufacturing activity. This could boost investor confidence in the overall economy. This positive sentiment may spill over into the cryptocurrency market as investors seek higher-yield investment opportunities like Bitcoin.

In the same way, the PMI data can influence market sentiment and risk appetite among investors. Positive PMI figures may lead to a more optimistic investment environment, potentially benefiting risk assets like crypto.

S&P Global Services PMI

Another US economic data point is the S&P Global Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), due for release on Friday. This indicator measures the performance of the US services sector and provides valuable insights into economic activity and business sentiment in service industries such as hospitality, finance, healthcare, and technology.

After a previous reading of 54.1, changes in the Services PMI can also have implications for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. A higher Services PMI reading typically signals growth in the services sector, which is a significant driver of economic activity. This could translate to positive sentiment in financial markets, potentially benefiting cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin as investors seek alternative assets with growth potential.

A strong Services PMI may also boost optimism about the business environment, leading investors to take on more risk, including investment in cryptocurrencies.

“The first indications of economic trends in the world’s major economies after the US Presidential Election will be eagerly awaited from the November flash PMI surveys, with US consumer confidence also due,” the PMI insights account noted.

Nvidia Corporate Earnings

Nvidia (NVDA), the GPU leader, is set to announce its Q3 earnings on Wednesday, Nov. 20. The report often highlights GPU demand for gaming, AI, and crypto mining. Analysts are projecting an 84% surge in revenue to $33.28 billion, largely fueled by AI infrastructure demand. Net income per share is expected to climb from $0.37 to $0.70.

Strong GPU sales for AI could boost investor confidence in AI-driven sectors, including AI-focused cryptocurrencies. Historically, Nvidia’s performance has influenced the prices of AI-related tokens, with potential bullish momentum if this week’s earnings point to continued growth in AI and crypto applications.

The sentiment surrounding AI stocks ahead of Nvidia’s Q3 earnings release is likely to have an impact on AI-focused cryptocurrencies such as Render (RENDER), Worldcoin (WLD), Near Protocol (NEAR), and Bittensor (TAO). Additionally, DePin project Aethir (ATH), known for its GPU rendering capabilities and often dubbed the “Nvidia of crypto,” may also see effects from the earnings report.

Notably, Nvidia’s results will come shortly after the US Supreme Court signaled plans for a narrow ruling in a shareholder lawsuit against the company. As previously reported by BeInCrypto, the lawsuit accuses Nvidia of misleading investors about its dependence on crypto mining revenue, which could add further volatility to both Nvidia’s stock and related crypto sectors.

Bitcoin isn’t just making a spectacular run in the market of late, with its price hitting over $81,000, another all-time high. According to Google Trends, Bitcoin searches on its search engine have surged by nearly 60% in just one day, as the digital asset’s price continue to soar.

Google Trends figures show searches for BTC last November 10th were up from 37 points compared to the previous day. There has been a notable increase in search volume for the term, which coincides with the asset’s market run, which started at around $70k and went up to $80k.

Its futures premiums also surged. Also, open interest in the alpha coin’s price topping $90k increased to $2.8 billion at the Deribi derivatives exchange, a popular platform for futures trading.

Bitcoin search result in the past week. Source: Google Trends

Bitcoin’s Price Run Boosting Google Searches

Thanks to its recent bullish price action, interest in Bitcoin is coming back. According to Google Trends, interest in the asset started on October 27. Using a 90-day scale, global data suggests that the “Bitcoin” search term hit 51 out of 100 last October 30th.

Google Trends uses a scale of 1 to 100 to measure interest in search terms and track these terms by location over time. In the past three months, El Salvador has been the top location in South America for “Bitcoin” searches.

BTC market cap currently at $1.6 trillion. Chart: TradingView.com

Interest In BTC Peaked A Day After US Elections

According to Google Trends, interest in the popular digital asset rose last November 6th. Online searches for the term netted 100 points during that day, coinciding with the asset’s price hitting $75,639, an increase of 9% from the previous day’s price.

Source: Bitstamp

By November 7th, interest levels on the term slightly dropped to just 55 points. Also, web searches for BTC dipped in the following days to just 44 and 37 points. On November 10th, the search term came back, with interest levels at 58 points.

Many analysts have tied Google Trends data to BTC price action. Currently, BTC trades for $80,500, reflecting an increase of 4% in the last 24 hours and a 16% increase in a week. Also, searches for Bitcoin-related news increased last November 10th, registering 91 points from the previous day’s 40, showing a 56% increase. Even YouTube searches for the crypto increased by 92 points.

Bitcoin Continues Rally, Gets Favorable Market Acceptance Under Trump

Bitcoin hit another all-time high this November 10th, suggesting increasing confidence in the incoming (and second) Trump administration. During the elections, Trump was seen as the pro-crypto candidate with friendly policy proposals.

Initially, Trump tagged Bitcoin and cryptocurrency as scams. However, during this year’s campaign, Trump changed his tune and adopted a more friendly stance on cryptocurrencies. In one of his public speeches, Trump pitched for a Bitcoin stockpile for the US and even launched a cryptocurrency platform, The World Liberty Financial.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView