Coinbase director Conor Grogan has raised speculation that crypto exchange Kraken and its CEO might have insight into the true identity of Bitcoin’s (BTC) elusive creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. 

His comments come after Arkham Intelligence added tracking for Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin holdings to their platform.

Kraken and Satoshi Nakamoto: A Hidden Connection?

According to the blockchain analytics firm, Satoshi’s known Bitcoin holdings total 1,096,354 tokens, valued at $107 billion at current prices. 

Furthermore, Satoshi has distributed his BTC trove across more than 22,000 wallet addresses. It includes the only known addresses from which Satoshi spent BTC. Notably, Arkham identified these addresses from the Patoshi Pattern.

For context, the Patoshi Pattern refers to a distinct mining pattern identified in the early Bitcoin blockchain and many believe it is linked to Bitcoin’s creator.

Coinbase’s director examined Satoshi Nakamoto’s wallet activity and shared his findings in a thread on X (formerly Twitter). While he noted that these wallets cannot be definitively linked to Satoshi, the evidence strongly suggests they belong to Bitcoin’s creator.

“In total, this research points to Satoshi owning 1.096 million BTC, worth approximately $108 billion, making them wealthier on paper than Bill Gates,” Grogan wrote.

He suggested that Nakamoto last moved Bitcoin on-chain in 2014. Interestingly, Grogan’s analysis uncovered evidence pointing to Kraken having knowledge of Satoshi Nakamoto.

Grogan found 24 outbound transactions from Satoshi-linked addresses. The most notable destination was the wallet 1PYYj, which reportedly received BTC from Cavirtex, a now-defunct Canadian cryptocurrency exchange. 

“I believe this is the first documented onchain between a Satoshi linked wallet and a CEX,” he remarked.

This means that Satoshi may have interacted with a centralized exchange, potentially leaving a digital footprint. Historically, Nakamoto has remained highly cautious about privacy, making any link to a regulated entity notable.

In 2016, Kraken acquired Cavirtex. Therefore, Grogan speculated that Kraken’s CEO Jesse Powell might know Satoshi’s true identity. Nonetheless, this depended on whether they retained any Know Your Customer (KYC) records on this wallet.

“My advice to him would be to delete the data,” Grogan suggested.

That’s not all. The 1PYYj address appears to be linked to the funding of 12ib. This Bitcoin address is among the largest active ones, currently containing more than $3 billion in BTC.

This strengthens the theory that 1PYYj was either controlled by Satoshi or an early Bitcoin adopter and contributor.

Furthermore, Grogan pointed out the possibility that the 500 BTC sent to 1PYYj in 2010 may have been a payment to another party, potentially revealing a new documented Satoshi-era Bitcoin transaction. 

In response to Grogan’s claims, Kraken posted a cryptic tweet.

“We are all Satoshi,” the post read.

While this does not confirm Kraken’s knowledge of Nakamoto’s identity, it raises questions about whether the exchange possesses information that could unravel Bitcoin’s greatest mystery.

Previously, Craig Wright claimed to be Bitcoin’s creator. However, the court legally dismissed his claim. Meanwhile, HBO’s documentary explored the possibility that core Bitcoin developer Peter Todd is Nakamoto—a claim he firmly denies.

In October 2024, a London press conference featured Stephen Mollah, asserting he is Bitcoin’s creator.

Bitcoin (BTC) could hit $500,000 by 2028, according to Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered.

Kendrick also sees Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025, a significant jump from its current trading levels.

Standard Chartered Maps Bitcoin’s Path to $500,000

In a February 5 investor note titled “Bitcoin—Pathway to the USD 500,000 Level,” Kendrick outlined the two primary factors influencing Bitcoin’s price trajectory. His bullish outlook builds on increasing institutional access and declining market volatility.

The approval of US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has significantly enhanced investor access, a trend Kendrick expects to accelerate under Donald Trump’s administration. 

“The ETFs have attracted a net $39 billion of inflows so far, supporting the theory of pent-up demand being unleashed by increased access,” Kendrick stated in the note.

Furthermore, as the ETF market matures, Kendrick expects Bitcoin’s volatility to decline. A more stable BTC market could encourage further adoption among institutional investors. This, in turn, would increase its weight in a gold-Bitcoin portfolio.

“Investor access and lower volatility should lead to price appreciation longer-term as portfolios continue to move towards their optimal/logical state,” he added.

According to Kendrick, this shift will contribute to Bitcoin’s long-term price appreciation.

“Access plus lower vol could see Bitcoin reach the USD 500,000 level before Trump leaves office,” he explained.

In addition to the two core factors, Kendrick highlighted the repeal of SAB 121 and Trump’s executive order on a digital asset stockpile as key developments that could encourage central bank adoption.

Based on these factors, he predicts the price will reach $200,000 by 2025 and $300,000 by 2026. By 2027, it could hit $400,000, followed by $500,000 in 2028. He expects it to remain stable at that level through 2029.

Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas reacted to the report in an X (formerly Twitter) post.

“Standard Chartered is mainlining the hopium again, says Bitcoin will hit $500K by end of Trump term. Tbf tho, their crazy Bitcoin ETF flow prediction was actually closer than we were, so who knows!” Balchunas stated.

Crypto investor Thomas Kralow echoed a similar sentiment, acknowledging that while bold, the forecast isn’t entirely unrealistic. 

“Time will tell whether those predictions are close to reality or not, but it’s not something completely unreal,” he remarked.

The latest prediction comes after Standard Chartered had projected Bitcoin to reach $125,000 by 2024. This prediction was contingent on Republican victory in the US elections. 

Following Trump’s election win, Bitcoin surged past $100,000 in early December. Although it has yet to cross $125,000. The latest all-time high was $108,786 on January 20, just hours before Trump’s inauguration.

Since then, Bitcoin has experienced sharp corrections, dipping frequently below the six-digit mark. At press time, BTC traded at $98,093, up by 0.57% over the past day.

Standard Chartered isn’t alone in its optimistic Bitcoin outlook. CryptoRank also predicts that Bitcoin will hit new all-time highs in 2025. The platform expects central banks to adopt Bitcoin as a reserve currency, further solidifying its long-term value.

“Bitcoin DeFi will emerge as one of the leading narratives. An increasing number of S&P 500 companies will hold Bitcoin,” the report read.

However, the report emphasized that continued Bitcoin growth depends on US regulatory policies. If the government adopts a pro-Bitcoin stance, the price could rise further. Conversely, regulatory pushback might trigger a market correction.

On Monday, the crypto market experienced what was billed as the largest liquidation event in history, destroying upwards of $2 billion in positions. Amid calls for the colloquial ‘altcoin season,’ analysts are divided on whether February is the month or if crypto markets must wait until April.

The arguments and projections refer to past market crashes, such as those in 2020 and 2022, and how the sector responded.

Analysts Weigh In on the Crypto Market Recovery Timeline

BeInCrypto reported on Monday’s historic $2 billion liquidation event, provoked by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs. As it happened, the president reached an agreement with Canada and Mexico, prompting some level of recovery in the market.

However, analysts remain unconvinced that a full-blown market recovery is here, even as others call for an altcoin season.

Mathew Hyland, a blockchain analyst, shared his insights on the market downturn, emphasizing that recovery will take time. He highlighted that although Bitcoin (BTC) did not break down, altcoins suffered significantly, resulting in the historic liquidation event. He says this indicates the extent of damage sustained by the altcoin market.

According to Hyland, while the massive liquidation event signified the market’s bottoming out, it is not yet ripe for a bounce back.

“Considering this was the largest liquidation event in Crypto history, it likely means the low is in. However, in 2020 & 2022, it took over two months for the full recovery to take place,” Hyland said.

The controversial analyst also pointed out that December highs for most altcoins may not return for at least two months, if not longer. Based on this outlook, Hyland cautions traders to temper their expectations, adding that even V-shaped recoveries like in 2020 took weeks with several dips along the way.

Another technical analyst, CryptoCon, echoed Hyland’s sentiments. He described the event as a major shakeout for overleveraged traders. While the analyst acknowledges that the cycle is well on track, he did not suggest an imminent recovery.

“What happened to a good-performing February? Still inbound, the cycle is well on track. It is clear that certain entities do not want people longing altcoins from their bottoms at 100X for the entire bull market,” the analyst stated.

CryptoCon’s outlook aligns with several other analysts, including Rover, who hold that the trajectory remains intact. In a post on X, CryptoRover highlighted that altcoins would go “parabolic” soon.

Arguments for Altcoin Season in February

Meanwhile, like CryptoCon, sentiment for February remains positive among other analysts, including Merlijn The Trader. In a related post, the analyst predicts that February will signal the start of an altcoin season and, therefore, market recovery. The analyst cites historical data suggesting that altcoin rallies have consistently begun in February, and this cycle should be no different.

“Altcoin season starts in February! History doesn’t lie, and neither do the charts,” said Merlijin in a post.

Others point to Bitcoin’s dominance as a key indicator, noting that the top is almost in for this metric, setting the stage for an altcoin season. Similarly, Coinvo, an analyst, reiterated the sentiment.

“Altcoin season has always started in February, and this cycle will be no different,” chimed Coinvo.

Another crypto analyst, DevKhabib, offered a contrasting perspective, highlighting February as a good month for Bitcoin. The analyst identified the $91,000 level as a crucial support floor for the Bitcoin price. He emphasized that the price rebounded strongly, expressing optimism about the market’s future.

“$91,000 seems to be a strong support for BTC as we bounced directly off it. Let us hope we continue to range above $94,000 so the market can recover a little bit. February usually is green, and I think we will still get a bullish February. A bad beginning makes a good ending,” the analyst expressed.

Moreover, according to data from IntoTheBlock, the range between $95,620 and $98,505 represents significant support for Bitcoin price

Any efforts by the bears to push the price below this level would be met by buying pressure from approximately 1.74 million addresses who bought BTC at an average price of $97,195.