Sławomir Mentzen, a candidate in Poland’s May 2025 presidential elections, has pledged to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve if elected.

Following in the footsteps of Donald Trump, Mentzen positions himself as a leader in cryptocurrency adoption, a move that could reshape Poland’s economic strategy.

Sławomir Mentzen Manifesto: Bitcoin Reserve

Responding to a policy framework shared by Lech Wilczyński, CEO of crypto exchange Swap.ly, Mentzen affirmed his commitment to implementing the plan. He emphasized Bitcoin’s potential benefits for national resilience and independence from traditional financial (TradFi) systems.

“Poland should create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. If I become the President of Poland, our country will become a cryptocurrency haven, with very friendly regulations, low taxes, and a supportive approach from banks and regulators,” Mentzen shared.

Mentzen’s strategy extends beyond just adoption. By fostering a supportive environment for crypto enterprises, he aims to boost innovation and attract global investors. He highlighted his intent to transform Poland into a competitive player in the global crypto market.

The vision includes crypto-friendly regulations, reduced taxes, and cooperative engagement with banks and regulators. The aspirant also draws inspiration from the libertarian ideals often associated with cryptocurrencies. This appeals to voters who favor minimal government intervention and financial innovation.

These would set Poland on a path to becoming a global leader in digital asset innovation. Mentzen’s proposal finds favor among Poland’s growing crypto-savvy population, with Bitcoin adoption rising significantly in recent years.

With Poland’s elections scheduled for May 2025, Mentzen’s crypto-forward policies are likely to play a defining role in shaping the nation’s economic future. If successful, his leadership could herald a transformative era for Poland, placing it at the forefront of the cryptocurrency revolution in Europe.

“The first potentially in Europe, but not the last, that’s for sure,” one user on X commented.

Inspiration from Global Trends

Mentzen’s proposal resonates with a growing international interest in national Bitcoin reserves. The concept gained momentum earlier this year when US President-elect Donald Trump vowed to establish a similar reserve, triggering debates about Bitcoin’s role in national finance.

Trump’s stance inspired state-level initiatives in the US, such as Pennsylvania’s proposed Bitcoin reserve bill and Florida’s endorsement of the concept. Additionally, Senator Cynthia Lummis has advocated for Bitcoin as a national reserve asset, suggesting that selling Federal Reserve gold could fund such a transition.

Globally, interest is expanding. Hong Kong is also evaluating Bitcoin’s inclusion in its financial reserves. This points to the asset’s potential as a hedge against economic volatility. Mentzen’s initiative reflects this broader trend, leveraging Bitcoin’s scarcity and decentralized nature to position Poland as a leader in the cryptocurrency space.

While still in the campaign stage, Mentzen’s promise reflects an ambitious alignment with a broader, global shift toward cryptocurrency adoption. As other nations, including the US and Hong Kong, explore similar strategies, Poland’s potential adoption of a Bitcoin reserve could set a precedent for other mid-sized economies.

However, critics question Bitcoin’s volatility and its potential risks as a reserve asset. Notably, investor Michael Novogratz has warned that national adoption might face resistance due to an unpredictable market and political complexities.

“It’s a low probability. While the Republicans control the Senate, they don’t have close to 60 seats. I think that it would be very smart for the United States to take the Bitcoin they have and maybe add some to it… I don’t necessarily think that the dollar needs anything to back it up,” Novogratz claimed.

Polymarket odds share his point. The decentralized prediction market, which gained credibility after successfully forecasting Trump’s victory, shows a meager 31% chance of Trump establishing a US Bitcoin Reserve.

Despite the skepticism, Novogratz articulated that such a Reserve would be beneficial for Bitcoin, potentially sending BTC value to $500,000. Meanwhile, others like David Bailey, CEO of Bitcoin Magazine, hold that Donald Trump could create a Bitcoin strategic reserve without Congressional approval.

“The verdict from the experts is the President has the authority to establish the SBR without Congress and implement a fairly large acquisition program (tens of billions of $). To go bigger we’ll need Congress, but we can start right away at a MicroStrategy-esque scale,” Bailey expressed.

The growing prominence of spot Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds) is reshaping the crypto market. A CryptoQuant analyst, MAC_D, has revealed that these funds now control 5.33% of the total mined BTC supply — a significant leap from the 3.15% recorded in January.

This marks an addition of 425,000 BTC within ten months, highlighting the rising demand for physically-backed Bitcoin ETFs. 

Bitcoin ETF Accumulation Drives BTC Price Growth

The analyst highlights a strong correlation between the accumulation of Bitcoin by spot ETFs and its price movements. This trend was particularly evident during Bitcoin’s price surges in March and November, fueled by significant ETF inflows and positive market sentiment. 

“Spot ETF volume increased by +425,000 BTC to 629,900 BTC → 1.0545 million BTC in January when trading began. This is an increase of 2.18% in just 10 months, or 3.15% → 5.33% of the total mined supply of 19.78 million BTC. Looking at March and November, which showed dramatic price increases, we can see that there is a strong correlation between the increase in accumulation and price,” the analyst explained in a post on X.

Indeed, in March, US-listed Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $4 billion, propelling trading volumes to $111 billion — a nearly threefold increase from February. During the same period, Bitcoin’s price surged to a then-record high of over $73,777 on Coinbase.

Similarly, in November, following Donald Trump’s reelection and heightened expectations of regulatory support for crypto, Bitcoin soared past $93,265 on Binance, marking its highest-ever valuation. 

“The more Bitcoin is accumulated in spot ETFs, the stronger the price becomes,” MAC_D added. 

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) continues to dominate the spot ETF market. Recent data shows the fund has surpassed $40 billion in assets, accounting for over $3 billion of net inflows since November 6.

While the broader US Bitcoin ETF market displayed mixed performance this week, IBIT added $2 billion in net inflows, consolidating its leadership. 

Overall, US Bitcoin ETFs registered $2.4 billion in inflows during the first half of last week. However, redemptions on Thursday and Friday trimmed the week’s net inflows to $1.6 billion as shown above. 

Regulatory Tailwinds Bolster ETF Adoption

The surge in Bitcoin ETF adoption is closely tied to changing regulatory frameworks. Recently, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved Bitcoin ETF options. This milestone aligned with recent progress from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which cleared the spot Bitcoin options trading path.

More recently, the SEC and CFTC approved the listing of eco-conscious 7RCC Bitcoin and Carbon Credit Futures ETF. Taken together, these developments further legitimized spot Bitcoin ETFs, enhancing their appeal to institutional investors. This regulatory backing has played a pivotal role in fostering trust and driving capital into the market. 

Optimism surrounding a favorable regulatory environment under the new US administration has also buoyed the inflows into Bitcoin ETFs further. In turn, it has amplified expectations of policies supportive of the digital asset industry, further accelerating Bitcoin adoption via ETFs.  BeInCrypto recently reported that Bitcoin ETFs are now in 60% of top us hedge fund portfolios.

The role of macroeconomic factors, such as Federal Reserve policy and US elections, cannot be overlooked. As the Fed’s monetary tightening cools, risk-on assets like Bitcoin are regaining favor.

Looking ahead, analysts predict that the increasing adoption of spot Bitcoin ETFs could pave the way for Bitcoin’s recognition as a reserve asset. Should the US government adopt this trend, the inflow into ETFs is expected to rise even further, solidifying Bitcoin’s position in global finance. 

Meanwhile, the growing share of Bitcoin held by spot ETFs has broader implications for the crypto market. By controlling over 5% of Bitcoin’s supply, these funds are stabilizing liquidity while potentially reducing market volatility.

Nevertheless, there are concerns about institutional control over Bitcoin, as this would be contrary to the pioneer cryptocurrency’s original decentralization ethos.

“Does this not defeat the whole purpose of “decentralization”? BlackRock will be the biggest hodler, it doesn’t get much more centralized than that,” one X user quipped.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs hurdle its biggest legal roadblock to date after the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) clarified that it’s no longer taking a role in clearing BTC ETF options. In a staff advisory dated November 15th, the CFTC, through its Division of Clearing and Risk, announced that it was transferring the approving authority to the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC).

According to ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, the OCC is under pressure now and will probably list these ETFs soon. At this point, only the OCC has the mandate to settle the listing of the ETF options.

Approval of these products will give Wall Street access to spot Bitcoin ETFs, increasing trading volume and potentially pushing their price.

A Look At Spot Bitcoin ETFs In The US

Unlike traditional assets, these spot Bitcoin ETFs blend the conventional features of options trading with the volatility of cryptocurrencies. Spot ETFs allow retail traders to participate in the crypto market without spending much. More importantly, they enable individual traders to quickly buy and sell their shares in the open market.

BOOM: The CFTC just dropped a notice clearing the way for spot bitcoin ETF options to be listed. This is the second hurdle they needed to clear after the SEC. Ball now in OCC’s court and they are into it, so they’ll prob list very soon. pic.twitter.com/tRiwaPpoW4

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) November 16, 2024

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved the application to list these options on the CBOE and the NYSE. According to the SEC, they decided that Nasdaq’s experience with iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) was successful.

Analysts see the CFTC advisory as a massive development for Bitcoin ETFs and the crypto market. If the spot BTC ETF options are listed, they will attract more investors, further legitimizing the standing of cryptocurrencies.

BTC market cap currently at $1.81 trillion. Chart: TradingView.com

Bitcoin ETF Options To Be Listed Soon?

Market experts and analysts expect these Bitcoin ETF options to be listed soon. According to Jeff Park of Bitwise Invest, these BTC ETF options will dominate the cryptocurrency market.

Park thinks the OCC will act immediately on this request but sees the end of 2004 as the most likely target for listing. However, he still believes that approval is flexible and that anything can happen.

British Hodl, a popular BTC commentator, estimates that the approval and listing will come this first quarter of 2025.

Spot ETH Options, Next?

With a growing possibility that the spot BTC ETF options will be listed, many in the industry have floated the same idea for the Ethereum blockchain. One Twitter/X user, Austin, asked if Ether would follow suit.

Austin wondered if it would be possible to re-submit a previous application today stating that Donald Trump has just be reelected as the next US president.

The SEC has already decided on ETH ETFs, saying they still need expert judgment and public comments. According to the agency, the transition of ETH into new products must comply with the country’s security laws.

Featured image from Blue Trust, chart from TradingView