The crypto community is on edge following Mt. Gox’s significant Bitcoin (BTC) transfer. According to data from Arkham Intelligence, the defunct exchange has moved Bitcoin worth $1 billion. 

The transaction has ignited speculation about potential selling pressure that could destabilize Bitcoin’s price amid already volatile market conditions.

Mt. Gox Transfers 12,000 Bitcoin

Arkham’s blockchain explorer shows that Mt. Gox transferred 12,000 BTC.

“Mt. Gox moving $1billion BTC,” Arkham alerted users on X.

Mt. Gox sent 11,833.6 BTC, worth approximately $1 billion, from its wallet (1PuQB) to a new address (1Mo1n). Additionally, it transferred 166.5 BTC, worth $15.1 million, to its cold wallet (1Jbez). No further movement occurred after these transactions.

This marks the first significant Bitcoin movement from Mt. Gox-linked wallets in a month. It came after a smaller shuffle of just 4 BTC between cold wallets in February.

Mt. Gox, once the world’s largest Bitcoin exchange, collapsed in 2014 after a massive hack. The security breach resulted in the loss of approximately 850,000 BTC. The exchange filed for bankruptcy, leaving creditors in limbo for years. 

However, Mt. Gox began reimbursing creditors last year. According to Arkham data, Mt. Gox-linked entities now hold 36,080 BTC, valued at around $3.2 billion.

Meanwhile, the transfer has sparked widespread concern on social media. Users are speculating that these movements could trigger a sell-off.

“Looks like they’re about to dump,” one user wrote on X.

However, Fefe Demeny, the host of Crypto Banter, alleged that the US government holds the transferred Bitcoin from Mt. Gox’s wallets, as it had previously seized these assets.

He speculated that this could be a strategic move ahead of the upcoming White House Crypto Summit. This summit, the first of its kind, is scheduled for March 7. 

Key discussion points are expected to include regulatory clarity for digital assets, the creation of a US crypto reserve that includes Bitcoin along with other digital assets, and potential reforms to crypto tax policies.

According to Demeny, Trump could use the summit to outline a plan that promises never to sell the seized BTC while committing to creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

Demeny believes this initiative would stir excitement within the crypto community and help boost market sentiment. The government could then leverage the already seized Bitcoin for the reserve without the need for any additional purchases. 

“If this turns out to be true I believe we will see a massive dump short term,” he wrote.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has been grappling with market volatility, driven by factors such as new US trade tariffs and broader economic uncertainty. In fact, last week, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index reached its lowest level since 2022. 

However, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a notable surge on March 5, rising above $90,000. This was driven by speculation that it may receive special treatment in Trump’s proposed US crypto reserve plan.

This upward movement follows a brief dip below $80,000 just five days ago. As of the latest update, Bitcoin was trading at $91,368, reflecting a 3.0% gain in the past 24 hours. Whether these gains will lead to a sustained bullish rally or if the market will once again take a nosedive remains uncertain.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen below its 200-day moving average (MA) for the first time since November, marking a significant shift in the currency’s trajectory.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to hold above the psychological level of $90,000. It defends against further downside ahead of Friday’s crypto summit.

US DXY Slips Below 200-Day MA

Over the past three trading days, the DXY has dropped by more than 3%. The move saw it slip below the 200-day MA for the first time in over three months. In trading, losing the support offered by the moving average generally suggests weakening momentum and is a bearish signal.

This decline in the DXY has fueled speculation about potential bullish momentum for risk assets. Lark Davis, a renowned crypto analyst, weighed in on the development. He states that the weakening dollar and an expanding global money supply are bullish for digital assets.

Davis highlighted that the US government is working toward establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve. This could further reinforce positive sentiment for Bitcoin and the crypto market. However, the analyst cautioned that short-term volatility remains a possibility despite the favorable long-term outlook.

“However, it doesn’t mean things can’t get worse before they start getting better. Patience is key here,” Davis added.

Historical Precedents and the Crypto Bull Run Thesis

Dan Gambardello, another well-known analyst, pointed to historical patterns. He pointed to a similar DXY decline during the last cycle, which triggered a parabolic bull run in the crypto market.

“This DXY fractal might be the most important fractal in crypto,” Gambardello observed.  

Further, the analyst emphasized that the current market fundamentals are significantly stronger than in the past. If history repeats itself, he said, Bitcoin and altcoins could be poised for a substantial rally.

“Last cycle, this move triggered a parabolic bull run. This time, fundamentals are 100x stronger,” the analyst added.

Meanwhile, the weakening of the US dollar has been partially attributed to President Donald Trump’s trade policies. Mister Spread, a trader and market analyst, explained that Trump’s tariff strategies exert downward pressure on the DXY while forcing the Federal Reserve’s hand.

“His calls for ‘more rate cuts’ didn’t move the Fed much, so he’s using tariffs as an alternative strategy,” the trader suggested.

Further, the analyst detailed how tariffs create economic uncertainty, which could slow growth and lead to the Fed cutting interest rates. Lower interest rates weaken the dollar, making US assets less attractive to investors seeking higher yields.

Meanwhile, technical analysts are also monitoring key levels for the DXY. The 105.3 level, previously a support, has now flipped to resistance. The next critical short-term target is 103.7, and if that level is breached, a further decline toward the 99.6 area could be on the horizon.

Below 99.6, the DXY could see a steeper drop, potentially accelerating capital flows into alternative assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Analysts also point to the growing global M2 money supply as a catalyst for a potential Bitcoin rally. As BeInCrypto reported, analysts say the correlation between M2 money supply expansion and Bitcoin’s price suggests that a major upward movement could occur by late March.

This aligns with the historical trend where increased liquidity in the financial system favors risk assets, including Bitcoin. However, traders must still conduct their own research.  

BeInCrypto data shows BTC was trading for $91,293 as of this writing, after a modest 1.62% surge since Thursday’s session opened.

Recent analyses by crypto experts acknowledge that Bitcoin (BTC) price movements closely correlate with the global M2 money supply. Based on this, they predict potential bullish momentum for the crypto market in late March.

With global liquidity expanding, analysts predict that Bitcoin and other digital assets could experience a significant rally, starting around March 25, 2025, and potentially lasting until mid-May.

Global M2 and Its Influence on Bitcoin

The M2 money supply represents a broad measure of liquidity, including cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near-money assets. Historically, Bitcoin has demonstrated a strong correlation with M2 fluctuations, as increased liquidity in financial markets often drives demand for alternative assets like cryptocurrencies.

Colin Talks Crypto, an analyst on X (Twitter), highlighted this correlation, pointing to a sharp increase in global M2. He described it as a “vertical line” on the chart, signaling an imminent surge in asset prices.

According to his prediction, the rally for stocks, Bitcoin, and the broader crypto market is expected to commence on March 25, 2025, and extend until May 14, 2025.

“The Global M2 Money Supply chart just printed another vertical line. The rally for stocks, Bitcoin, and crypto is going to be epic,” he suggested.

Vandell, co-founder of Black Swan Capitalist, supports that global M2 movements directly influence Bitcoin’s price. He notes that declines in global M2 are typically followed by Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market downturns about ten weeks later.

Despite the potential for short-term dips, Vandell believes this cycle sets the stage for a long-term uptrend.

“As seen recently, when global M2 declined, Bitcoin & crypto followed roughly 10 weeks later. While further downside is possible, this drawdown is a natural part of the cycle. This liquidity shift will likely continue throughout the year, setting the stage for the next leg up,” Vandell explained.

Similarly, another popular analyst, Michaël van de Poppe, sees M2 expansion as one of five key indicators for an early market recovery. He emphasizes that with inflation no longer the primary focus and expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts, financial conditions are becoming more favorable for Bitcoin.

“Bottom line is: Inflation isn’t the prime topic, likely to go down. FED rate cuts. The dollar to weaken massively. Yields to fall. M2 Supply to significantly expand. And as this process started, it’s just a matter of time until altcoins and crypto pick up. Bull,” he stated.

Historical Context and Projections

The correlation between Bitcoin’s price and global M2 growth is not new. Tomas, a macroeconomist, recently compared previous market cycles, particularly in 2017 and 2020. At the time, significant increases in global M2 coincided with Bitcoin’s strongest annual performances.

“Money supply is expanding globally. The last two major global M2 surges occurred in 2017 and 2020—both coincided with mini ‘everything bubbles’ and Bitcoin’s strongest years. Could we see a repeat in 2025? It depends on whether the U.S. dollar weakens significantly,” Tomas observed.

Tomas also highlighted the impact of central bank policies, pointing out that while major banks are cutting rates, the strength of the US dollar could be a limiting factor. If the dollar index (DXY) drops to around 100 or lower, it could create conditions similar to previous Bitcoin bull runs.

The Federal Reserve’s Role

Macro researcher Yimin Xu believes that the Federal Reserve might halt its Quantitative Tightening (QT) policies in the latter half of the year. Such a move, Yimin says, could potentially shift toward Quantitative Easing (QE) if economic conditions demand it. This shift could inject additional liquidity into the markets, fueling Bitcoin’s upward trajectory.

“I think reserves could get too thin for the Fed’s liking in the second half of the year. I predict they will terminate QT in late Q3 or Q4, with possible QE to come after,” Xu commented.

Tomas agreed, stating that the Federal Reserve’s current plan is to increase its balance sheet slowly, which is in line with GDP growth. He also articulates that a major financial event could trigger a full-scale return to QE.

These perspectives suggest that uncertainties remain, including the strength of the US dollar and potential economic shocks. Nevertheless, the broader consensus among analysts points toward an impending bullish phase for Bitcoin.

Investors must conduct their own research as they continue to watch macroeconomic indicators in the coming months, anticipating whether the predicted rally will materialize.