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Is The Bitcoin Bear Market Here? This On-Chain Indicator Suggests So

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The price performance of Bitcoin has been underwhelming for most parts of 2025, failing to capitalize on the red-hot momentum in the last 30 days of 2024. Despite the market leader’s obvious struggles, investors have still not lost hope on BTC making one final rally to a new all-time high.

However, the latest on-chain revelation points out that this might all be a pipe dream, with the Bitcoin bear market seemingly here. The question here is — is it time to move on or is there still one last upside run in this cycle?

Is It Time To Move On In This Cycle?

In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, a crypto analyst with the pseudonym Maartunn put forward an interesting prognosis on the current on-chain setup of the Bitcoin price and cycle. This observation is based on the changes in the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) metric.

The Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) is an on-chain metric that tracks BTC flows between spot and derivative exchanges using CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin exchange flow data. Changes in this indicator can help determine whether investor sentiment in the largest crypto market is bullish or bearish.

Typically, when significant amounts of BTC are being transferred to derivative exchanges, the indicator signals a bullish period. “This suggests that traders are moving coins to open long positions in the derivatives market,” Maartunn added.

On the flip side, the increased flow of Bitcoin out of derivative exchanges but rather into spot exchanges signals the start of a bearish period. The Quicktake analyst noted that this usually occurs when long positions are closed and large investors (whales) are looking to reduce their risk exposure.

Bitcoin

Source: CryptoQuant
As shown in the chart above, the IFP metric has turned bearish again, indicating a fall in market risk appetite and potentially signaling the start of a bearish phase. The last time this indicator turned red was in mid-2024, a period characterized by prolonged sideways movement for the flagship cryptocurrency.

However, this trend mustn’t be sustained if the BTC price is to make one last rally in this cycle. The last sustained IFP bearish period coincided with the fall of Bitcoin price from above $60,000 to beneath $20,000 in 2022.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, BTC is valued at around $97,500, reflecting no significant price change in the last 24 hours. Similarly, the premier cryptocurrency barely moved in the past week, recording a mere 1.2% gain in the last seven-day period.

Bitcoin

The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView



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$2 Billion Bitcoin, Ethereum Options Expiry Signals Market Volatility

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Today, approximately $2.04 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options are set to expire, creating significant anticipation in the crypto market.

Expiring crypto options often leads to notable price volatility. Therefore, traders and investors closely monitor the developments of today’s expiration.

Options Expiry: $2.04 Billion BTC and ETH Contracts Expire

Today’s expiring Bitcoin options have a notional value of $1.62 billion. These 16,561 expiring contracts have a put-to-call ratio of 0.76 and a maximum pain point of $98,000.

Expiring Bitcoin Options
Expiring Bitcoin Options. Source: Deribit

On the other hand, Ethereum has 153,608 contracts with a notional value of $421.97 million. These expiring contracts have a put-to-call ratio of 0.48 and a max pain point of $2,700.

Expiring Ethereum Options
Expiring Ethereum Options. Source: Deribit

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $98,215, a 1.12% increase since Friday’s session opened. Ethereum trades at $2,746, marking a 0.20% decrease. In the context of options trading, the put-to-call ratio below 1 for BTC and ETH suggests a prevalence of purchase options (calls) over sales options (puts).

However, according to the max pain theory, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices could gravitate toward their respective strike prices as the expiration time nears. Doing so would cause most of the options to expire worthless and thus inflict “max pain”. This means that BTC and ETH prices could register a minor correction as the options near expiration at 8:00 AM UTC on Deribit.

It explains why analysts at Greeks.live noted a cautiously bearish sentiment in the market, with low volatility frustrating traders. They suggest ongoing concern among traders and investors, particularly around Bitcoin, with traders closely monitoring key price points.

“The group sentiment is cautiously bearish with low volatility frustrating traders. Participants are watching $96,500 level with skepticism about upward momentum, while discussing possibilities of volatility clustering at low levels around 40%,” the analysts wrote.

Elsewhere, Deribit warns that while low volatility feels safe, this sense of safety is only momentary, as markets tend not to wait long.

Bitcoin Price Outlook: Key Levels and Market Outlook

Bitcoin trades around $98,243, hovering above a critical demand zone between $93,700 and $91,000. This area has previously acted as strong support, indicating buyers may step in to defend these levels.

On the other hand, a key supply zone is positioned at around $103,991, where selling pressure has historically been significant. BTC has struggled to break past this level, making it a major resistance to watch.

BTC Price Performance
BTC Price Performance. Source: TradingView

From a price action perspective, BTC has been forming lower highs and lower lows, suggesting a short-term bearish trend. However, the recent price movement hints at a possible reversal, as BTC is attempting to bounce off its demand zone.

The volume profile also shows significant trading activity near $103,991, reinforcing the resistance level. Meanwhile, a noticeable low volume area near $91,000 suggests that if BTC breaks below this level, a sharp drop could follow due to the lack of strong support.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 50.84, indicating neutral momentum. While BTC is not overbought or oversold, the RSI’s slight upward trend could signal growing buying interest.

If Bitcoin holds above the $93,700 support zone, it may attempt a push towards the $100,000 milestone. However, a breakdown below $91,000 could trigger a move lower, potentially testing the $88,000 to $85,000 range.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Bitcoin ETFs See Institutional Ownership Multiply 55x In Less Than A Year

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The institutional adoption of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has experienced an unprecedented surge in the past 11 months, underscoring a tectonic shift in the way traditional investors interact with digital assets.

Bitwise data indicates that the number of institutional holders of US spot Bitcoin ETFs has increased by nearly 55 times – from 61 in March 2024 to 3,323 by mid-February 2025. This rapid ascent indicates a heightened desire for Bitcoin exposure through regulated financial instruments.

An Immense Rise In Institutional Involvement

This demonstrates a high level of confidence in the asset class, as Wall Street titans and global financial entities have substantially increased their Bitcoin ETF holdings.

Goldman Sachs has nearly doubled its investment, now possessing over 24 million shares valued at approximately $1.35 billion—a 89% increase from previous figures.

Millennium Management was not far behind, increasing its holdings by 116% to over 23 million shares, which are valued at approximately $1.32 billion.

Additionally, sovereign wealth funds have entered the market. Abu Dhabi Sovereign Wealth Fund acquired over 8 million shares, which equates to a $461 million investment in Bitcoin ETFs.

Major financial institutions’ actions suggest that they regard Bitcoin as a legitimate asset for long-term investment strategies.

Bitcoin ETF Market Surpasses $56 Billion

The total assets under management (AUM) for US-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs have increased significantly as institutional demand continues to rise. These ETFs collectively oversee nearly $57 billion in assets. BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF is the leading player in this sector, with a total AUM of over $56 billion. This establishes it as the dominant force in the industry.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $97,202. Chart: TradingView

Bitcoin ETFs currently have in their disposal around 1.35 million BTCs, which further solidifies their market influence. The rapid accumulation of Bitcoin by these funds indicates that digital assets are becoming more widely accepted and adopted within traditional financial systems.

Image: Global Finance Magazine

Implications For The Crypto Market

The rapid rise in Bitcoin ETFs highlights a larger institutional trend towards digital assets. With wider exposure through regulated products, Bitcoin may gain stability and reputation, which would entice hedge funds, pension funds, and even individual investors to make additional investments.

Additionally, market liquidity increases and may lessen volatility as institutions amass more Bitcoin through ETFs. The long-term prospects for Bitcoin’s price and uptake are getting better as demand rises.

The Road Ahead For Bitcoin ETFs

As the institutional embrace of Bitcoin accelerates, the next phase will likely see continued expansion and regulatory developments. More institutional financial firms could follow suit, further legitimizing the crypto’s role in diversified investment portfolios.

Featured image from Reuters, chart from TradingView





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Strategy’s Bitcoin Play Inspires Risky Copycats in Business

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As companies face stagnation and declining revenues, some turn to an unconventional strategy to regain investor interest—buying Bitcoin (BTC).

Firms are now trying to emulate MicroStrategy (now Strategy), whose Bitcoin accumulation commitment continues to place it on the leaderboard.

Bitcoin Becomes A Quick Fix for Fading Businesses

Rather than reinvesting in their core operations, firms like Goodfood Market Corp are using Bitcoin as a financial maneuver to create buzz around their stocks.

According to Bloomberg, Goodfood CEO Jonathan Ferrari once led a promising meal-delivery startup. However, the company’s stock plummeted 98% from its pandemic-era highs. Ferrari then sought a drastic measure, investing corporate funds in Bitcoin, to reinvigorate investor interest.

“We have a nice core business, but it’s too small to be relevant to the capital markets. I think as we start investing more into our Bitcoin treasury strategy, we’ll be able to create more liquidity in our stock and attract investors,” Bloomberg reported, citing Ferrari.

According to Bloomberg, this tactic centers on the hope that these firms will replicate the success of Michael Saylor’s Strategy. Meanwhile, Goodfood is not alone; dozens of public companies are following in Saylor’s footsteps with their Bitcoin strategies.

The report cites firms in social media, video gaming, and even coal mining that divert corporate cash to invest in Bitcoin. Further, some firms, like Semler Scientific, borrowed funds to invest in the pioneer crypto.

Recently, BeInCrypto reported that GameStop is mulling a Bitcoin investment. The American video game retailer’s pivot to BTC is motivated by the need for financial stability.

“GameStop, a company with no viable business plan, has thrown another Hail Mary by announcing that it might use its cash to buy Bitcoin. The irony is that Bitcoin is even more overpriced than GME. No matter; speculators are buying the stock anyway, hoping it becomes another MSTR,” Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff wrote.

This suggests that firms beyond retail are also banking on Bitcoin’s volatile yet historically upward-trending value to boost their stock appeal. However, the speculative strategy carries significant risks, raising concerns.

As BeInCrypto reported, MicroStrategy faces a billion-dollar tax dilemma over Bitcoin gains. Specifically, the firm may owe billions under the US corporate alternative minimum tax (CAMT) for its $47 billion Bitcoin holdings. This includes $18 billion in unrealized gains.

New Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) rules compound the issue. Starting this year, companies must report the fair value of cryptocurrencies on their balance sheets. MicroStrategy disclosed that this change would add up to $12.8 billion to its retained earnings and potentially $4 billion to its deferred tax liabilities.

This means that companies’ Bitcoin holdings could directly affect their financial statements. Such an outcome would make them more susceptible to regulatory scrutiny and market volatility. Similarly, the IRS is set to begin tracking cryptocurrency transactions on centralized exchanges in 2025, signaling a broader regulatory crackdown.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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