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Is Bitcoin Price Top At $146,000? Here’s Why CryptoQuant Thinks So

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The call of the Bitcoin price reaching $100,000 cooled off this past week, especially after the premier cryptocurrency slipped beneath $93,000 during the last seven-day span. Fortunately, BTC has somewhat recovered from the slump, climbing as high as $98,500 on Friday, November 29.

Following the recent Bitcoin price decline, investors have been left wondering if the market cycle top is close — or if there is still more room for growth. A prominent on-chain analytics firm has revealed that the crypto market is still in a bullish phase.

Bitcoin Still In A Bull Market, But Blockchain Firm Sounds Warning

In its latest report, the market analytics platform CryptoQuant has put forward a target for the Bitcoin price top in the current cycle. According to the blockchain firm, the market leader’s price top is more in the range of a six-figure valuation.

The major rationale behind this projection is based on the realized price valuation metric, which measures the price at which each coin was last transacted. From a historical perspective, this Bitcoin price band has often acted as an indicator of the market top in past cycles.

According to CryptoQuant, the realized price metric is currently pointing to $146,000 as the possible peak in this cycle. As shown in the chart below, the price band (the red line), currently around $147,000, acted as the market top around April and May 2021.

Bitcoin price

Source: CryptoQuant

Furthermore, the holdings of new investors are yet to reach an extreme level, which was a signal in the past two market tops. As of now, the value held by new Bitcoin investors represents a little above 50% of the total money in BTC; this figure significantly pales compared to 90% and 80% witnessed in 2017 and 2021, respectively.

CryptoQuant warned:

Bitcoin price tops typically occur when new investors enter the market to buy at extremely high prices, which causes them to hold a large proportion of the total value invested.

Moreover, the retail trading activity is yet to hit levels often associated with Bitcoin price peaks. Historically, bull cycles have been seen to top out when BTC retail investors are accumulating coins aggressively. However, this phenomenon is still absent in the current market condition.

It is worth mentioning that CryptoQuant expects a pullback for the Bitcoin price in the short term. According to the on-chain intelligence firm, MicroStrategy’s stock price is becoming overheated relative to the company’s Bitcoin holdings value.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin stands around $96,500, reflecting an almost 3% increase in the past 24 hours. While this single-day rally has helped shave off some of BTC’s loss in the past week, the premier cryptocurrency is still down by over 2% within the timeframe.

Bitcoin Price
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Featured image created by DALL-E, chart from TradingView



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China Liquidates Seized Crypto to Boost Struggling Treasury

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Amid mounting economic challenges and a growing pile of confiscated cryptocurrencies, local governments in China are increasingly liquidating seized digital assets to bolster strained public finances.

The practice raises legal and regulatory questions, especially concerning China’s blanket ban on crypto trading.

China Selling Seized Crypto To Bolster Treasury

China reportedly held around 15,000 Bitcoin (BTC) worth $1.4 billion by the end of 2024. According to River, a Bitcoin investment firm, this places the country among the top 15 global holders of the asset.

However, reports suggest China’s local governments are offloading digital currencies through private firms despite the national crypto ban.

Cas Abbe, a Web3 growth manager, and Binance exchange affiliate, noted on X that the dump in crypto prices may partly stem from these offloading activities.

“Local governments in China are selling seized crypto to top up their treasury. Despite the crypto trading ban in China, local governments are using private companies to offload their holdings. This explains pretty much the dump even before tariff news hit the market,” Abbe noted.

The surge in liquidations comes as authorities grapple with inconsistent policies for handling crypto seized from criminal investigations, which spiked sharply in 2023.

Over $59 billion was tied to crypto-related crimes in China that year. Blockchain security firm SAFEIS reported that more than 3,000 people were prosecuted for offenses ranging from internet fraud to illegal gambling.

Despite Beijing’s ban, local governments have reportedly turned to private firms to offload confiscated tokens. Specifically, they are converting them into cash to fund their treasuries.

Jiafenxiang, a Shenzhen-based technology firm, has sold more than 3 billion yuan ($414 million) worth of digital assets in offshore markets since 2018. Documents reviewed by Reuters link the company to liquidation deals with local authorities in Xuzhou, Hua’an, and Taizhou.

Though practical for cash-strapped regions, the process is legal gray territory. Such practices risk undermining the country’s crypto enforcement regime without clear regulatory frameworks.

“This raises so many questions about transparency. How are they even doing this legally?” noted one analyst in a post.

Experts are now calling for urgent regulatory reforms. These include judicial recognition of crypto as assets and the creation of standardized disposal mechanisms.

Some are even floating the idea of building a centralized national crypto reserve. This mirrors Trump’s administration’s proposals to manage seized assets more strategically.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Is Bitcoin the Solution to Managing US Debt? VanEck Explains

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Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, has proposed a new financial instrument, “BitBonds,” to help manage the US government’s looming $14 trillion refinancing debt requirement.

The 10-year financial instrument combines traditional US Treasury bonds with Bitcoin (BTC) exposure. This offers a potential solution to the nation’s fiscal concerns.

Can Bitcoin-Backed Bonds Help Solve the US Debt Crisis?

According to Sigel’s proposal, BitBonds’ investment structure allocates 90% of the funds to low-risk US Treasury securities and 10% to Bitcoin, combining stability with the potential for higher returns. Additionally, the government would purchase Bitcoin with proceeds from the bond sale.

bitbonds to tackle us debt
BitBonds’ Proposed Structure by VanEck. Source: X/Matthew Sigel

Investors would receive all Bitcoin gains up to a maximum annualized yield-to-maturity of 4.5%. Furthermore, the investor and the government would split any additional gains equally. 

“An aligned solution for mismatched incentives,” Sigel remarked.

From an investor perspective, Sigel highlighted that the bond offers a breakeven Bitcoin compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 8% and 17%, depending on the coupon rate. Additionally, investors’ returns could skyrocket if Bitcoin grows at a 30%–50% CAGR

“A convex bet—if you believe in Bitcoin,” he added.

However, the structure is not without risks: investors bear Bitcoin’s downside while only partially participating in its upside. Lower-coupon bonds may lose appeal if Bitcoin underperforms. 

Meanwhile, the Treasury’s downside is limited. Even a complete collapse of Bitcoin’s value would still result in cost savings compared to traditional bond issuance. Yet, this is contingent on the coupon remaining below the breakeven threshold.

“BTC upside just sweetens the deal. Worst case: cheap funding. Best case: long-vol exposure to the hardest asset on Earth,” Sigel stated.

Sigel claimed that this hybrid approach aligns the interests of the government and investors over a 10-year period. The government faces high interest rates and significant debt refinancing needs. Meanwhile, investors seek protection from inflation and asset debasement.

The proposal comes amid growing concerns over the US debt crisis, exacerbated by the recent increase in the debt ceiling to $36.2 trillion, as reported by BeInCrypto. Notably, the Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI) has also endorsed the concept. 

“Building on President Donald J. Trump’s March 6, 2025, Executive Order establishing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, this white paper proposes that the United States adopt Bitcoin-Enhanced US Treasury Bonds (“₿ Bonds” or “BitBonds”) as an innovative fiscal tool to address multiple critical objectives,” the brief read. 

In the paper, co-authors Andrew Hohns and Matthew Pines suggested that issuing $2 trillion in BitBonds at a 1% interest rate could cover 20% of the Treasury’s 2025 refinancing needs. 

“Over a ten-year period, this represents nominal savings of $700 billion and a present value of $554.4 billion,” the authors wrote.

BPI estimates that if Bitcoin achieves a CAGR of 36.6%, the upside could potentially defease up to $50.8 trillion of federal debt by 2045.

These recommendations are part of broader conversations regarding Bitcoin’s potential impact on national finance. Previously, Senator Cynthia Lummis argued that a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could halve the national debt. In fact, VanEck’s analysis indicated that such a reserve could help reduce $21 trillion of debt by 2049.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Bitcoin Adoption Grows As Public Firms Raise Holdings In Q1

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Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Public companies have added nearly 100,000 Bitcoin to their balance sheets during the first quarter of 2025, pushing total corporate Bitcoin holdings to a staggering 688,000 BTC worth $56.7 billion. According to data from crypto fund issuer Bitwise, this represents a 16% increase in total crypto holdings by publicly traded companies.

12 New Corporate Buyers Enter The Market

The Bitcoin buying spree wasn’t limited to existing crypto investors. Twelve public companies purchased Bitcoin for the first time during Q1, bringing the total number of Bitcoin-holding public firms to 79.

Hong Kong construction firm Ming Shing led new buyers, with its subsidiary Lead Benefit acquiring 833 BTC through two separate purchases – an initial 500 BTC buy in January followed by 333 BTC in February.

Video platform Rumble ranked as the second-largest new buyer, adding 188 BTC to its treasury in mid-March. In a move that stunned market watchers, Hong Kong investment firm HK Asia Holdings Limited purchased just one Bitcoin in February – a modest investment that still caused its share price to almost double in a single day of trading.

Japanese Firm Acquires At A Discount

While new entrants made headlines, existing Bitcoin holders also strengthened their positions. Japanese investment firm Metaplanet announced on April 14 that it had purchased an additional 319 BTC at an average price of 11.8 million yen (about $82,770) per coin.

BTC market cap currently at $1.71 trillion. Chart: TradingView

This latest purchase brings Metaplanet’s total Bitcoin holdings to 4,525 BTC, currently valued at approximately $383.2 million. The company has spent nearly $406 million (58.145 billion yen) building its crypto stack.

Based on current holdings, Metaplanet now ranks as the 10th largest public company crypto holder worldwide, sitting behind Jack Dorsey’s Block, Inc., which holds 8,480 BTC.

BTC reclaiming the green zone in the last week. Source: Coingecko

Bitcoin Price Recovers After Brief Slump

Bitcoin trades at around $85,787 as of April 15, showing a decent performance over the past 24 hours according to CoinGecko data. The cryptocurrency has gained roughly 2.5% since the end of Q1 on March 31.

The price has bounced back from a brief drop below $75,000 on April 7. That temporary decline came after a broader market selloff triggered by a new round of global tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump.

The growing corporate interest in the top crypto comes as more companies look to diversify their treasury holdings. The combined value of public companies’ Bitcoin rose about 2.3% during the first quarter, reaching nearly $57 billion with BTC priced at $82,400 by quarter’s end.

Featured image from Crews Bank, chart from TradingView

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