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Is Bitcoin (BTC) Bull Run Stalling? CryptoQuant CEO Expects A Rebound In Q4

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Bitcoin is currently facing a critical test, having retraced over 19% from local highs and holding above a key demand level around $54,000 that supports the market structure. This level represents the last line of defense for BTC, and if it breaks, a deeper correction could be in play. 

Analysts and investors are actively sharing their insights, with many looking at market data to assess Bitcoin’s next move. CryptoQuant CEO, Ki Young Ju, recently shared crucial data that sheds light on the current situation. His analysis highlights on-chain metrics that provide a clearer understanding of why Bitcoin is struggling to maintain its value. 

Additionally, he has made a prediction for Bitcoin’s performance in the final months of the year, outlining what investors should watch for as market conditions evolve. As the year progresses, these insights could help guide market participants as they navigate the volatility surrounding Bitcoin’s price action.

US Demand Crucial For Bitcoin Bull Run

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently experiencing significant selling pressure, largely attributed to a notable decline in demand. Recent data shared by Ju, reveals that Coinbase’s Bitcoin spot trading volume dominance has reverted to pre-spot ETF levels. This shift highlights a substantial dip in US demand, a crucial factor for sustaining the bullish momentum seen earlier this year.

Coinbase Bitcoin spot trading volume dominance is back to pre-spot ETF levels.
Coinbase BTC spot trading volume dominance is back to pre-spot ETF levels. | Source: Ki Young Ju on X

Ju emphasizes that for Bitcoin’s bull cycle to regain its strength, a rebound in US demand is essential. He projects that this recovery might occur in the fourth quarter of 2024, suggesting that we are currently in the midst of the market cycle without having reached the retail bubble phase. This perspective implies that there remains ample opportunity for growth as the market progresses.

The current phase reflects a consolidation period rather than a terminal decline, indicating that Bitcoin’s price dynamics are subject to fluctuations as demand trends shift. Investors should be aware that while short-term pressure is evident, the potential for a significant rebound exists if demand conditions improve as anticipated. As the market continues to evolve, keeping an eye on these demand metrics will be crucial for understanding Bitcoin’s future trajectory.

BTC Technical Details 

Bitcoin is currently trading at $54,404, maintaining a critical support level that is keeping its price within a reasonable accumulation pattern. This level is crucial for preventing further declines. If BTC fails to hold this support, a deeper correction could be on the horizon.

At present, BTC is trading below the 4-hour 200 moving average (MA), which stands at $59,263. Reclaiming and holding this level as support is essential for shifting market sentiment and reviving bullish momentum. A decisive break above $60,000 would likely spark renewed demand and potentially drive the price higher.

BTC trading below the 4H 200 MA.
BTC trading below the 4H 200 MA. | Source: BTCUSD chart on TradingView

Conversely, if Bitcoin loses its current support and falls below $54,404, it could signal a move towards lower demand zones, with $49,000 emerging as a key target for further testing. This scenario would indicate a bearish shift in the market, necessitating close monitoring of price movements to gauge future trends. The ability to hold above the $54,404 level and reclaim the 200 MA will be critical for determining BTC’s short-term outlook and potential for recovery.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView



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Trump and Lummis Unite on $76 Billion National Bitcoin Reserve

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Senator Cynthia Lummis is making a bold new proposal to establish a Bitcoin reserve in the US. This follows President-elect Donald Trump’s recent declarations in the run-up to the US elections.

Her bill, the BITCOIN Act of 2024, aims to have the US Treasury acquire 1 million Bitcoin (BTC) over five years, a massive move that would position the US as a leader in financial innovation.

Senator Cynthia Lummis Advocates Bitcoin Reserve

The Wyoming senator wants the plan spread across five years, with purchases of 200,000 BTC tokens every year to develop America’s Bitcoin reserve. At current rates, that translates to an investment of about $76 billion.

“We are going to build a strategic Bitcoin reserve,” Lummis shared on X (formerly Twitter).

Notably, Lummis’s side of the political divide now holds the majority in both the Senate and House committees. According to Stand With Crypto, 261 pro-crypto candidates have been elected to the House of Representatives against 116 anti-crypto candidates. On the other hand, there are 17 pro-crypto candidates in the Senate and 12 anti-crypto lawmakers.

Read more: How To Buy Bitcoin (BTC) and Everything You Need To Know

BTC Price Performance
BTC Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

With this, the chances of Senator Lummis’ Bitcoin Bill passing through Congress are far better. This is as opposed to the Biden administration, where efforts toward bipartisan bills were greatly stifled due to a divided Congress. 

This political alignment, along with Bitcoin’s recent surge to a new all-time high, adds momentum to Lummis’ initiative. Industry leaders, including Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy and Samson Mow, have shown support, stressing Bitcoin’s potential as a national asset.

Mow highlighted Bitcoin’s value at sub-$100,000, pointing out its potential strategic importance if prices soar above $500,000 in coming years.

“Good luck Senator Lummis. I suggest acting quickly. The difference between acquiring Bitcoin below $0.1 million vs. $0.5 million will have massive geopolitical ramifications,” Mow wrote.

Framework for Secure BTC Management

The BITCOIN Act does not stop at Bitcoin acquisition. It also introduces a framework for managing Bitcoin securely within Treasury vaults. It aims to reduce national debt by half by 2045. This would serve as a hedge against inflation and a potential powerhouse for US debt management.

President-elect Trump publicly endorsed the creation of a national Bitcoin reserve during the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville. His remarks continue to stir interest among crypto proponents and Republicans as the then-presidential aspirant emphasized Bitcoin as a “core of financial independence” for the US.

 “It will be the policy of my administration…to keep 100% of all the Bitcoin the US government currently holds or acquires into the future. This will serve in effect as the core of the strategic national bitcoin stockpile…It’s been taken away from you,” Trump said.

Meanwhile, state governments are also eyeing Bitcoin, with Florida’s Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis recently endorsing Bitcoin as a “strategic reserve” for state pensions. Florida’s pension fund, among other states like Wisconsin and Michigan, would benefit from Bitcoin’s long-term appreciation, diversifying investments amid economic uncertainty.

Nevertheless, while the plan has garnered support, it raises questions about economic risks and global impacts. Some economists warn of potential volatility in tying national debt management to cryptocurrency. However, advocates point to Bitcoin’s finite supply and growing international adoption as a hedge against inflation and market fluctuations.

Read more: Crypto Regulation: What Are the Benefits and Drawbacks?

With Trump’s support, a Republican-led Congress, and growing state-level backing, the plan has momentum. This makes the concept of a national Bitcoin reserve a closer reality than ever before. If implemented, the BITCOIN Act could place the US at the forefront of a global financial evolution.

“Other countries will follow,” another popular user on X added.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Bitcoin Price Might Never Dip Below $70,000 Again After The US Elections, Here’s Why

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The US presidential elections have come and gone, and the only thing left is the results. Interestingly, a snapshot of the Bitcoin price during the elections showed Bitcoin trading just above $70,000. This is a notable price to follow, as history shows this might be the price support for Bitcoin in the foreseeable future. Interestingly, this phenomenon goes back to the Bitcoin price levels in previous US elections.

Why Bitcoin Price Might Never Dip Below $70,000 Again

Bitcoin has largely been on an uptrend since Monday, when it kicked off a run after it rebounded to the upside from $67,000. This run continued, allowing the Bitcoin average price during the 2024 presidential elections to be around $70,110. 

Historically, U.S. election cycles have often been accompanied by shifts in Bitcoin’s value, marking crucial price points that tend to establish longer-term support levels. 

To understand this trend, we need to look at the past four election cycles. Back in 2012, during the early days of the crypto industry, the Bitcoin price traded at a modest $10 on the US presidential election day, a price point that now seems almost unimaginable. By 2016, Bitcoin’s election-day price had climbed to $710, setting a new baseline that it has never revisited since.

The most interesting one was what happened after the 2020 US presidential election, when the Bitcoin price was trading around $13,555. The Bitcoin price has never revisited this price point again since then up until the time of writing. What’s more interesting is that this price point even served as the lowest support level during the 2022 bear market price crash. 

If these historical trends are any indication, the 2024 election-day price of $70,110 could become a similar stronghold and a price floor for Bitcoin in the coming years.  This level might even serve as critical support should a bear market eventually take hold at any point.

Bitcoin price
Source: X

What’s Next For The Bitcoin Price?

As of now, Bitcoin is trading above $73,200 after experiencing an intense surge over the past 24 hours. This remarkable rally saw Bitcoin climb nearly 10% within a single day, reaching an intraday high of $75,358. This milestone has now become Bitcoin’s highest trading level, as it broke past its previous all-time high of $73,737 in March 2024.

Although the Bitcoin price has pulled back slightly likely due to some investors cashing in on recent profits, the rally is expected to resume anytime from now. Considering this momentum, Bitcoin remains well-positioned to challenge the $80,000 mark before the end of November, especially if buying interest continues to drive the current uptrend.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com
BTC price above $74,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com



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Bitcoin Price After US Presidential Elections: Here’s How BTC Reacted To Previous Winners

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Market analysts have continued to deliberate on how the Bitcoin price could react to a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris victory in the US presidential elections. History indicates that Bitcoin’s future trajectory is bullish, irrespective of who wins the elections. 

How The Bitcoin Price Has Reacted To Previous Winners

The Bitcoin price has always hit a new all-time high (ATH) regardless of the winners in the past US presidential elections. In 2012, after Barack Obama won the elections, Bitcoin rallied and reached a new ATH of $1,200 in 2013. Its price then consolidated until the next election in 2016. 

Bitcoin price 1
Source: X

The 2016 US presidential elections, which Donald Trump won, also sparked the beginning of another impressive rally for the Bitcoin price, which rose to a new ATH of $19,000 the following year. In 2020, following Joe Biden’s victory in the US presidential election, BTC rose to a new ATH of $69,000. 

The Bitcoin price rally after the US presidential elections is believed to be due to the market certainty that the election aftermath provides. Meanwhile, based on history, the BTC rally could begin as soon as December, with the flagship crypto hitting a new ATH as soon as January 2024. 

In 2016, the Bitcoin price rally began about three weeks before the election and went on to hit a new high in the first week of January 2017. In 2020, BTC had also consolidated for about six months before it began to rally from $11,000 just about three weeks before the US elections and then went on to reach a new high of $42,000 in January 2021.

Bitcoin’s recent price action also looks to be playing out the same way as BTC began rallying in mid-October and even came close to hitting its current ATH of $73,700 late last month. As such, there is the possibility that the flagship crypto could again retest this ATH and surpass it as soon as January 2024 or even before then. 

There Could Be Some Volatility In The Coming Days

In an X post, Crypto analyst Ali Martinez warned that the days following the last three US presidential elections have been volatile for the Bitcoin price. However, he added that the overall trend has stayed upward. 

Bitcoin price 2
Source: X

Economist and crypto analyst Alex Krüger also warned about the potential pullback the Bitcoin price could face after the US elections. He claimed that there is a 45% chance that BTC could drop to as low as $65,000 if Kamala Harris wins the elections. 

Due to his pro-crypto stance, Donald Trump looks to be the most preferred candidate in the crypto community. As such, the market could initially react negatively to a Harris win while taking in Trump’s loss. 

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $68,000, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. 

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com
BTC price pushes above $68,000 again | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com



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