Bitcoin (BTC) has gone through three previous halving cycles with a relatively clear price pattern. The supply decreased, demand surged, and Bitcoin’s price skyrocketed afterward. However, in the fourth halving cycle, there is a deviation.

Data suggests that Bitcoin’s growth trajectory no longer follows the historical range set by previous cycles. Many industry experts believe Bitcoin has entered a completely different phase compared to before.

What’s Different About Bitcoin’s Fourth Halving Cycle?

Observations from Ecoinometrics show that Bitcoin’s growth rate in this cycle is significantly lower than in previous ones. This indicates that the halving event no longer plays a central role in driving Bitcoin’s price as it did before.

If Bitcoin were to grow similarly to previous cycles, its price could range from $140,000 to $4,500,000, starting from $63,000. However, Bitcoin is currently trading at around $80,000.

“At this stage of the cycle, the lower bound of the historical range should be around $250,000.” – Ecoinometrics commented.

Another crucial factor is that Bitcoin demand has dropped to its lowest level in over a year, according to CryptoQuant data. The Bitcoin Apparent Demand metric compares new supply to inactive supply held for over a year, highlighting the true demand.

This means that even though the halving event reduces supply, Bitcoin’s price may struggle to rally without new capital inflows or strong investor interest.

Alongside Bitcoin Apparent Demand, Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, also analyzed the Bitcoin PnL Index Cyclical Signals. This metric applies a 365-day moving average to key on-chain data like MVRV, SOPR, and NUPL. It signals “Buy” or “Sell” at major turning points in a large cycle rather than short-term fluctuations.

Based on this data, Ki Young Ju predicted that Bitcoin’s bull cycle has ended.

“Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action,” Ki Young Ju predicted.

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, pointed out another key difference in this Bitcoin cycle. Unlike the previous one, which benefited from expansionary monetary policies by central banks, this time, central banks are either tightening or maintaining neutral policies.

During the last cycle, Bitcoin thrived as central banks injected liquidity into the economy, creating a favorable environment for risk assets like crypto. However, the current monetary stance lacks that same supportive force, making it harder for Bitcoin to sustain strong upward momentum.

Despite this, Charles Edwards remains somewhat optimistic. He noted that US liquidity is showing technical signs of a potential recovery.

“This Bitcoin cycle we have largely been battling a flat monetary cycle, versus last cycle’s strong uptrend (green). That may be about to change. We are now seeing the first signs of a potential major multi-year bottom in US Liquidity, with an eve/adam bottom forming today. It’s been almost 4 years since tightening began. 2025 would make sense for a monetary policy trend change amid tariff stressors. Let’s see if this new trend can stick,” Charles Edwards predicted.

The halving cycle was once the most important factor influencing Bitcoin’s price. However, current data paints a different picture. Weak demand, unfavorable monetary policies, and expert predictions suggest that Bitcoin has entered a new phase.

In this environment, macroeconomic factors and institutional capital flows will likely dictate Bitcoin’s price trends more than the halving event itself.

This week, the crypto market recorded several significant developments, ranging from key controversies within the Pi Network ecosystem to Trump’s crypto summit and revelations of Bitcoin’s role in the dark web.

The following is a roundup of crucial developments that happened this week but will continue shaping the sector.

Pi Network Criticized Over Mainnet Migration

The controversial Pi Network was criticized by its community of Pioneers, making it a headline topic this week in crypto. It came amid widespread issues where Pioneers could not transfer their Pi coins to the mainnet before the migration deadline.

“The whole process is a joke. ~80% of my balance shows as unverified, although all of my security circle has completed KYC. No additional actions are listed to be taken to clear this up. Furthermore, nobody got back to me on a support ticket I opened weeks ago. What gives?” remarked a user.

Many users, frustrated by prolonged lockup periods, have turned to selling their accounts, raising concerns about the ecosystem’s integrity. The failure to meet migration deadlines has heightened fears of a potential price drop once unrestricted trading begins.

Adding to the concerns, KYC (Know Your Customer) verification issues plague the Pi Network community. Pioneers who cannot verify their identities risk losing access to their Pi coins, creating uncertainty ahead of Pi Day.

These situations led to increasing dissatisfaction among users who questioned the project’s transparency. Meanwhile, centralization concerns have escalated, as reports indicate that Pi Network’s Core Team holds 82.8 billion Pi coins. This revelation has sparked debates about whether the network is truly decentralized or controlled by a select few.

Dark Web Drug Market Moves Millions in Bitcoin

Another headline topic this week in crypto entailed the resurfacing of an ancient and long-dormant Bitcoin wallet. The crypto wallet, associated with the Silk Road-era dark web drug trade, suddenly resurfaced, moving $77.5 million worth of Bitcoin (BTC) after nine years.

“Nucleus Marketplace was a darknet drug market, and it was believed that the founder had either been apprehended by law enforcement or had exit-scammed when the market went offline in 2016. The BTC held in their wallets has not been moved until today,” Arkham revealed.

The transfer raised questions about the potential for further illicit financial activity. It also begged queries on whether authorities are monitoring these funds.

The transaction serves as a reminder of cryptocurrency’s controversial past and ongoing use in underground markets.

SEC May Reclassify XRP as a Commodity

Rumors surfaced this week that the US SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) may reclassify XRP as a commodity rather than a security. This development follows recent legal victories for Ripple, which successfully argued that XRP sales on secondary markets do not constitute securities transactions.

“This speculation gained traction after Vermont state regulators announced they were dropping their case against Coinbase, citing the newly established SEC Crypto Task Force. This could set a major precedent for Ripple,” a user on X shared.

If true, this move could significantly affect Ripple’s longstanding legal battle with the SEC and redefine how cryptocurrencies are regulated. Specifically, if the SEC categorizes XRP as a commodity, this would place it under the jurisdiction of the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) rather than the SEC, potentially leading to a more favorable regulatory environment for Ripple and its investors.

Such a milestone could pave the way for an XRP ETF in the US. However, no official confirmation has been provided, and the crypto community remains divided on the implications.

Some believe it would provide much-needed clarity and regulatory relief. Others caution that a reclassification could result in additional oversight and compliance requirements.

Meanwhile, many draw similarities between Ethereum (ETH) and XRP. In their opinion, this merits XRP for a commodity status or classification.

Trump’s Crypto Summit Sparks Frustration

Also this week in crypto, US President Donald Trump hosted a much-anticipated crypto summit at the White House. The event aimed to further position Trump’s administration as an ally to the digital asset industry.

However, the event fell short of expectations, lacking clear policy proposals and tangible commitments. Instead of offering concrete regulatory guidance, the summit largely consisted of broad statements about innovation in the US, economic growth, and opposition to excessive government control over crypto.

“That Summit was the most embarrassing thing I’ve ever witnessed,” popular NFT trader Clemente lamented.

Additionally, the summit failed to address key issues such as stablecoin regulations, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and the future of Bitcoin and Ethereum in the US. Critics argue that if Trump truly wants to appeal to crypto investors, he must outline a comprehensive policy framework rather than relying on vague assurances.

Binance and Coinbase Traffic Drops Nearly 30%

Meanwhile, amid a broader market lull, Binance and Coinbase, two of the largest centralized exchanges (CEXs), saw a nearly 30% drop in traffic. Spot and derivatives trading volumes have also declined, reflecting skittishness from retail investors.

The downturn was caused by reduced trading activity, growing investor uncertainty, and declining retail interest in crypto. The decline in traffic suggests that fewer users are engaging with crypto trading platforms as market sentiment remains bearish.

Many analysts believe this trend is driven by lower volatility, reduced speculative activity, and regulatory concerns. President Trump’s tariffs, particularly in the US and Europe, fuel these concerns.

Additionally, the lack of major bullish catalysts, such as Bitcoin ETF (exchange-traded funds) inflows or institutional adoption, has kept many traders on the sidelines. BeInCrypto reported that US Bitcoin ETF holdings have since fallen below Satoshi’s BTC stash as outflows continue.

Another factor contributing to the reduced traffic is the growing competition from decentralized exchanges (DEXs) and alternative trading platforms that offer lower fees and fewer regulatory constraints.

James Howells, a Welsh man who lost 8,000 bitcoins to a landfill, has been fighting for years. He lost another appeal, trying to get the right to purchase and excavate the site, and plans to go to the European Court of Human Rights.

The city of Newport plans to seal off the landfill and turn it into a solar farm in 2026. It has a long-term economic vision for the site, and zero interest in Howells’ dogged efforts.

Howells’ Quest to Recover Landfill Bitcoin

The price of Bitcoin has shot up wildly in the last few years. There’s no shortage of anecdotes from people who purchased BTC long ago and lost or spent it all. Some people, however, go further than others with their regrets.

James Howells, a man who lost a hard drive with 8,000 bitcoins on it, has fought for years to excavate the landfill where it rests.

Despite British courts repeatedly refusing to let Howells dig up the landfill and recover his Bitcoin, the potential gain is too great to forget.

He offered the Newport local council $72 million in 2021 and tried to purchase the landfill this February. Today, his legal battle to force the issue met another setback, as another appeals petition was shut down:

“Appeal request to the Royal Court of Appeal: refused. The Great British Injustice System strikes again… The state always protects the state. Next stop: the European Court of Human Rights,” Howells posted on social media.

According to reports, the presiding judge dismissed Howells’ arguments. He said that the effort didn’t have “any real prospect of success” and that “there is no compelling reason” why the Court should consider his appeal.

Also, Newport’s city council is not interested in Bitcoin and plans to seal off and redevelop the landfill site in 2026.

Indeed, there are many sad cases of lost Bitcoin, though few are quite so flamboyant as Howells’ landfill saga.

In 2021, the British government estimated that $140 billion worth of Bitcoin had been lost. This number has shot up tremendously since then. Even if Howells could excavate the site, it’s very unlikely that his hard drive will remain functional.

In short, storing cryptoassets on a hard wallet is probably the safest method, but anything is possible. Freak accidents like Howells’ can and have destroyed vast sums of money all over the world.

Overall, he is still determined to get his Bitcoin back from the landfill, but it seems like an impossible task.