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Historical Data Points To Bitcoin Price Reaching $75,000 – Here’s Why

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The year 2025 has not exactly gone as planned for the crypto industry, as bearish pressure continues to envelop the market. Following the recent downturn that shook the crypto market, the Bitcoin price is now trading nearly 25% beneath its all-time high.

According to data from CoinGecko, the price of Bitcoin is down by roughly 12% in the past seven days. What’s worse is that the latest price data suggests that the decline might not yet be over for the premier cryptocurrency.

The Current Outlook For BTC Price

In a February 28 post on social media platform X, crypto analyst Ali Martinez put forward another bearish outlook for the Bitcoin price in the current market condition. According to the internet pundit, the price of BTC could fall towards $74,700 to find relief from the ongoing correction.

The rationale behind this prediction is the movement and the crucial nature of the 50-week moving average on the Bitcoin weekly chart. Martinez noted that the price of BTC historically tends to find support and bounce off above this long-term moving average.

Bitcoin price

Source: Ali_charts/X

As shown in the chart above, the Bitcoin price has experienced deep corrections in past cycles, which often bounces off the 50-week moving average. Most recently, the flagship cryptocurrency found support at the moving average in July 2021, rebounding to the then-all-time high of around $62,000 before reaching the $67,737 cycle top.

Going by this historical precedence, it appears that the Bitcoin price might be at risk of further downward movement, with the next support around $74,700. However, if this crucial support level holds strong, the market leader could bounce back to its previous all-time high price and even beyond.

On the flip side, if the price of BTC breaches the 50-week moving average to the underside, the premier cryptocurrency could be in for an extended correction period. Using previous cycles as a template in analyzing this bearish case, the Bitcoin price is at risk of commencing its bear market if it breaks the 50W moving average.

In the last cycle — after breaching the 50-week moving average, the price of Bitcoin declined from around $68,000 to beneath $17,000 — a 75% decline — in just about a year. However, it is worth mentioning that this downturn might have been exaggerated due to the collapse of Terra Luna and FTX exchange in 2022.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of BTC sits just above the $85,200 mark, reflecting no significant change in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin price

The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView



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Bitcoin ETFs Stop Bleeding, Post $95 Million Net Inflow To End 8-Day Streak

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In the past few days, the price of Bitcoin has been under significant bearish pressure, falling by more than 10% in the past week. The US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds) registered significant withdrawals in the same period, begging the question of whether the funds are responsible for the market downturn.

The spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds ended the run of significant daily outflows on Friday, February 28, with nearly $100 million added in value to close the week. However, it might be too early to tell whether this latest capital influx to these crypto-based products represents a shift in investor sentiment.

Bitcoin ETFs Lose $3.2 Billion In Eight Days

According to the latest market data, the US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total daily net inflow of $94.34 million on Friday. This latest capital inflow put an end to the funds’ eight-day streak of consecutive net outflows.

The ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (with the ticker ARKB) was responsible for a substantial portion of the day’s total inflow, posting  $193.7 million in capital influx. ARKB was followed by Fidelity Wise Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) on Friday, adding more than $176 million to its net assets to close the week.

Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) and Grayscale Mini Trust (BTC) were the only other exchange-traded funds that saw net inflows ($4.57 and $5.59 million, respectively) on Friday. BlackRock’s IBIT (the largest Bitcoin ETF by net asset) accounted for most of the total withdrawals ($244.5 million), continuing its recent trend of outflows.

Bitcoin ETFs

Source: SoSoValue

The $94.34 million single-day net influx did little to alleviate the US-based Bitcoin ETFs’ weekly performance, which stood at a record negative outflows of over $2.61 billion. Up until the past Friday, the last time the US Bitcoin ETF market saw a daily net positive inflow was on Friday, February 14.

More than $3.265 billion was withdrawn from the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds within these eight days. Most notably, the Bitcoin ETFs registered over $1.1 billion in its daily net outflow on Tuesday, February 25 — the first time withdrawals have ever crossed the billion-dollar mark since launch.

Bitcoin Price And The Spot ETFs

There is undeniably a relationship between the performance of the spot Bitcoin ETFs and the BTC price. According to CryptoQuant’s Head of Research Julio Moreno, exchange-traded funds have disappeared as a source of demand growth for Bitcoin so far in 2025 relative to 2024.

The net cumulative inflows into Bitcoin ETFs on day 58 of 2025 stand at 12,100 Bitcoin ($1.7 billion), which pales in comparison to 128,700 Bitcoin ($6.3 billion) in 2024. This trend somewhat explains the Bitcoin price struggles since the start of this year.

As of this writing, BTC is valued at around $85,400, reflecting a 1.5% price increase in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin ETFs

The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView



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Bitcoin’s Strongest Support Now At $83,440 – Will It Hold?

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Following a price crash to below $80,000 last week, Bitcoin has experienced some market recovery over the past 48 hours, rising by over 7.5% to trade above $86,000. Amid this market rebound, crypto market expert Ali Martinez has spotted the most critical support level for the premier cryptocurrency at the moment.

Bitcoin Faces ‘Air Gap’ Below $83K – A Breakdown Could Be Brutal

In an X post on Saturday, Martinez shared a puzzling insight on the Bitcoin market. Using the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) metric partitioned at all-time highs, the analyst has identified $83,440 as the most vital Bitcoin support zone.

Generally, the URPD is an on-chain metric that shows the price levels at which unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) last moved, thereby measuring how much Bitcoin was transacted at different price levels. Each bar on the URPD chart represents a price range, and the height of the bar indicates the number of BTC transacted at that level.

Therefore, the URPD can be used to identify potential support and resistance levels as it would show if a significant amount of BTC was acquired or sold at a specific price level.

Bitcoin
Source: @ali_charts on X

According to Martinez’s analysis, URPD data from Glassnode shows that investors acquired 171,693 BTC (0.87% of total supply) at $83,440.72, converting this price level into a strong support zone. This is because bitcoin bulls are likely to step in and acquire more BTC at this level in any case of a retest.

However, there is a notable air gap between $72,000 – $82,000 with low levels of UTXO recorded in this price range. Thus, a decisive fall below $83,440 will result in a further price decline due to the lack of demand in the immediate lower price ranges.

Bitcoin RSI Backs Rebound Quest – More Gains Ahead?

In another analysis post on the BTC market, Martinez has hinted at the potential for further price gains amidst the ongoing price recovery. According to the crypto expert, Bitcoin has historically recorded a price rebound after its Relative Strength Index( RSI) went below 30.

bitcoin
Source: @ali_charts on X

The RSI measures the momentum of price movements and determines if an asset is overbought (above 70) or oversold (below 30). Martinez states that Bitcoin’s RSI has recently touched 24 in the oversold zone suggesting a rebound to reclaim previous high price levels may occur according to historical data.

At press time, Bitcoin trades at $86,383 after rising by 2.32% in the past 24 hours. Following the price correction in the past week, BTC remains at 21.02% off from its all-time at $109,114.

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BTC trading at $86,302 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT chart on Tradingview.com

Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview



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Bitcoin Price Struggles Due To ‘Absence Of Positive Catalysts,’ Coinbase Analysts Reveal

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The Bitcoin price started 2025 with an uninspiring performance in January, moving mostly sideways throughout the month. The premier cryptocurrency’s negative start to February — dropping around $92,000 on the first day — was a sign of what’s to come later in the month.

The Bitcoin price has since slipped beneath $80,000, posting one of its worst February performances in recent years. While several experts have shared their thoughts and analysis on this market downturn, analysts at crypto exchange Coinbase are among the latest to weigh on the latest Bitcoin February record.

Bitcoin’s Weekly Decline: What’s Causing The Drop?

In the latest market report, Coinbase analysts David Han and David Duong revealed that the crypto and Bitcoin markets are in a somewhat uncertain state. This shift in the market condition follows the $1.4 billion Bybit hack and the decline in the macroeconomic environment.

According to Coinbase analysts, the latest trade tariff news and decline in the Consumer Sentiment Index impacted the crypto and United States stock markets earlier in the week. However, the equities market bounced back due to improved investor sentiment after the US House of Representatives approved the year’s budget during the week.

The Bitcoin price, on the other hand, didn’t show this same level of resilience in the last seven-day period, struggling to reclaim some of its crucial psychological levels above the $95,000 level. Now, the flagship cryptocurrency trades just above the $80,000 mark, reflecting an over 12% decline in the past week.

Han and Duong believe that the failure of the Bitcoin price from the early-week blues was due to the absence of positive near-term catalysts for the crypto space. Additionally, the analysts highlighted the lack of technical support within the $80,000 – $95,000 region.

Bitcoin price

Source: SoSoValue

The current weak investor sentiment is spotlighted by the heavy outflows suffered by the US-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, with over $2.9 billion withdrawn in the past week. “Concurrently, lending markets have echoed the risk-off sentiment as leverage diminished and funding rates declined across the board,” the analyst added.

According to the report, nearly $2 billion in perpetual futures were liquidated at the start of the week, significantly decreasing the leverage in the market. Meanwhile, the CME basis for both Bitcoin and Ethereum has dropped to 5%, the lowest since March 2023.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at around $85,200, reflecting a 0.3% decline in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin price

The price of BTC forms a doji candlestick on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView



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