Even though the third quarter was tough, Bitcoin has been very strong in 2024, continuing to be the best-performing currency. A new report from the New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG) says that Bitcoin made a small 2.5% gain in Q3, after going down in the previous three months. This makes the growth so far this year an amazing 49.2%. Bitcoin is still doing very well, even though the market is under a lot of pressure.

Market Dynamics And Challenges In Q3

This year was no exception to the common perception that the third quarter of the year is a challenging time for Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency encountered numerous obstacles, such as substantial sell-offs by significant holders.

It is important to note that the US and German governments sold off significant quantities of Bitcoin, which dramatically affected market sentiment. Furthermore, the resolution of long-standing bankruptcies, such as Mt. Gox, resulted in the return of billions of dollars in Bitcoin to creditors, which further influenced prices.

Despite all the difficulties Bitcoin faced—a month usually marked with decreases for the digital asset—it exceeded expectations in September with a 10% increase. Though other asset classes, such gold and equities, were performing well, Greg Cipolaro, the research director of NYDIG, pointed out that Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its position as the top asset is remarkable. The analysis underlined that during the past six months, Bitcoin’s price has moved between $65,000 and $54,000 with no clear pattern.

ETF Inflows Fostering Growth

The demand for US spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has been a substantial factor in the support of Bitcoin’s price during this period. In Q3, these ETFs received a total of $4.3 billion in inflows, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust taking the lead.

This injection of capital has allowed Bitcoin to find new means of supporting the price in periods of larger market volatility. Conversely, exchange-traded funds based on Ethereum have struggled to generate anywhere close to the same level of interest.

BTC market cap currently at $1.22 trillion. Chart: TradingView.com

The growth of ETF investment continues to be on an upward curve, showing confidence from investors in the growing potential of cryptocurrencies as a decent asset in light of somewhat fluid and volatile conditions within the economic setup. Mainstream markets are still sound although indices such as the S&P 500 have recently shown improvements. It is for this reason that Bitcoin’s position diverges uniquely and really helps multi-asset portfolios to provide diversification benefits.

Image: StormGain

Future Prospects: Potential Catalysts

As we head into Q4, analysts see great promise for Bitcoin. Historically, the top crypto has had a good run over this period. One of numerous possible triggers that can raise prices, Cipolaro noted is the approaching US presidential election on November 5. If former President Donald Trump, who has shown support for cryptocurrencies, wins, Bitcoin stands to gain greatly.

Moreover, global monetary easing and stimulus measures from countries like China could further influence Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming months. While some investors may feel frustrated with Bitcoin’s range-bound trading over recent months, Cipolaro reassured them that this is not unusual for this time of year.

Featured image from StormGain, chart from TradingView

The US Marshal Service can proceed to sell the 69,370 Bitcoin (BTC) that the Department of Justice (DOJ) confiscated from the underground online marketplace Silk Road. 

This comes after the Supreme Court turned down an appeal seeking to challenge the ownership of the seized assets.

US Marshall Service Gets Green Light To Sell Silk Road Bitcoin

In a Monday development, the Supreme Court decided not to give an audience to Battle Born Investments’ appeal. This decision effectively upholds the US District Court for the Northern District of California’s 2022 ruling. Then, the district court determined that the government liquidated the Bitcoin under existing laws.

In its appeal, Battle Born Investments pushed that it had acquired rights to the 69,370 Bitcoin in question via a bankruptcy estate involving Silk Road. Further, the Nevada-based hard moneylender argued that “Individual X,” an unnamed person, had stolen the BTC taken from Silk Road.

Read more: Who Owns the Most Bitcoin in 2024?

Following the court’s decision, the US government can proceed with the sale of the 69,370 BTC, valued at $4.4 billion. The USMS will handle the sale, which could go down in history as the largest sale of seized Bitcoin.

As BeInCrypto reported, the US government has already moved a significant portion of the Bitcoin it seized. In late July, $2 billion in DOJ-seized Bitcoin was transferred to new addresses, followed by another $593.5 million in BTC moved in mid-August, according to blockchain tracker Arkham.

All indications suggest that Coinbase Prime is serving as the custodian of the Bitcoin, given its custody agreement with the USMS. Some observers have linked the anticipated sale to the upcoming US elections, which are just weeks away.

“Trump pledged to never sell any of the US government’s bitcoin. Two days later, the Biden-Harris Administration moved $2 billion of Silk Road Bitcoin. Great look and a great way to reset with our industry,” Gemini founder Tyler Winklevoss said.

Similarly, economist Peter Schiff suggested that Donald Trump’s remarks may have prompted the Biden administration to act quickly. Schiff criticized Trump for revealing plans to halt the government’s Bitcoin sales before taking office, stating that this announcement may have accelerated the administration’s actions.

Finance lawyer Scott Johnsson also anticipated these sales, pointing to multiple transfers to custodial addresses as politically motivated preparations. He expects further details to emerge in the DOJ’s FY2024 report, as the USMS will disclose the sales at a time of its choosing.

“Whenever a transfer is ultimately made to Coinbase Prime (or other commingled exchange address), you can be sure USMS has already sold or is selling imminently,” Johnsson shared.

Read more: How To Buy Bitcoin (BTC) and Everything You Need To Know

Meanwhile, markets are bracing for the impact of these expected sales, especially following the Supreme Court’s decision. A sudden influx of Bitcoin could create a supply shock, potentially limiting Bitcoin’s price gains. However, if the sale is conducted over-the-counter (OTC) or spread over a longer period, the market impact might be reduced.

As of writing, BeInCrypto data shows BTC trading at $62,461, down nearly 2% in the past 24 hours.

According to latest reports, El Salvador Bitcoin’s dream is now under scrutiny by The International Monetary Fund (IMF). Particularly, the IMF has urged El Salvador to reconsider its approach to its Bitcoin law, recommending “narrowing” the law’s scope and reducing the public sector’s exposure to Bitcoin.

Notably, BTC became a legal tender in El Salvador in September 2021, and ever since, the country has been actively working to integrate the crypto asset within the region.

The Push To Tame Bitcoin Law, Why?

The IMF’s call for El Salvador to limit its Bitcoin policy comes from ongoing discussions with Salvadoran authorities about “macroeconomic stabilization and reform policies.” Julie Kozack, IMF’s communications director, addressed the organization’s concerns at a recent press briefing.

She emphasized the need to address risks associated with Bitcoin adoption in El Salvador, stating that regulatory oversight and the overall framework governing the country’s BTC ecosystem require strengthening.

The briefing revealed that the IMF is in talks with El Salvador to establish a program to stabilize the economy, support growth reforms, and tackle issues tied to BTC’s legal status.

Specifically, they disclosed that their push for El Salvador to make a policy change on its Bitcoin laws is due to the “potential risks” involved in El Salvador’s comprehensive embrace of the asset, concerning “fiscal policies and financial stability.”

What is Next for El Salvador?

Despite the legal integration of BTC as an alternative currency, the IMF believes that many of the associated risk are yet to be materialized completely. The IMF noted in a statement published in August:

There is joint recognition that further efforts are needed to enhance transparency and mitigate potential fiscal and financial stability risks from the Bitcoin project. Additional discussions in this and other key areas remain necessary,

Notably, the IMF plan, as disclosed, is to ensure that El Salvador’s public sector does not become “overly exposed” to BTC’s volatility and that the digital currency is “well-regulated” within the broader financial system. They added in the statement:

Progress has been made in the negotiations toward a Fund-supported program, focused on policies to strengthen public finances, boost bank reserve buffers, improve governance and transparency, and mitigate the risks from Bitcoin

Meanwhile, it is worth noting that the Salvadoran government’s bold move to recognize Bitcoin as a legal tender marked a global first and has positioned the country at the forefront of crypto innovation.

The region has made several developments concerning crypto to cement it as a crypto hub further. El Salvador added 162 BTC to its national holdings in August this year.

Additionally, in February, the country launched a BTC educational project to empower its young citizens with the skills needed to run a node on the BTC network.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView