Bitcoin
Here’s What’s Next This Week
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As the last week of September commences, financial markets look out for multiple US economic events. However, a handful of them will influence the portfolio and investment strategies of crypto investors, either directly or indirectly.
Bitcoin (BTC) is off to a good start this week, holding well above the $63,000 threshold in the early hours of the Asian session.
Manufacturing and Services PMI
The business survey committees will release data about the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for manufacturing and services on Monday. The report will shed light on the health of these sectors.
With a previous index of 55.7 and a median forecast of 55.4, a higher PMI above 50 would suggest expansion in the manufacturing and services sectors. This could be positive for risk assets like Bitcoin, especially if the report signals economic growth.
Consumer Confidence and Consumer Sentiment
The consumer confidence report, set to release on Tuesday, September 24, will be followed closely by the consumer sentiment report on Friday. These two surveys, though from different sources, gauge how optimistic or pessimistic consumers feel about the economy’s future.
Both reports reflect consumer attitudes toward their financial outlook and their perception of business conditions and the job market for the next six months. Essentially, they offer a snapshot of how people feel about the economy today and in the near future.
As inflation eases in the US, optimism among consumers is growing. This positive shift is largely due to expectations that inflation will continue to decline through the end of the year, making it easier for households to manage their finances.
If these reports show increased confidence and sentiment, it could suggest a greater willingness among consumers to spend. This improved outlook could also have a ripple effect, potentially benefiting speculative assets like Bitcoin. A more confident consumer base typically means greater risk tolerance, which bodes well for investments perceived as high risk but high reward.
Q2 GDP
The second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report, set for release on Thursday, is one of the week’s key economic indicators. This will be the second revision following July’s initial report, which showed a 2.8% increase quarter-over-quarter. That figure significantly surpassed the prior quarter’s 1.4% growth.
The rise in domestic spending has been the main driver behind GDP growth. Increased consumer spending often boosts the economy and inflation while strengthening the US dollar. Conversely, a slowdown in spending could reduce these effects.
A strong GDP report could bolster US citizens’ confidence in the economy’s stability. This positive sentiment may also benefit Bitcoin’s price, as many investors view it as an alternative investment or hedge. Additionally, robust economic data could reinforce the Federal Reserve’s more measured approach to monetary policy. Crypto investors are particularly attuned to Fed policies, as they directly influence market liquidity and conditions.
Fed Speaks: Jerome Powell and Michelle Bowman
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver his opening remarks on Thursday, with markets eagerly awaiting his commentary following recent inflation data and the Federal Open Market Committee’s 50 basis-point interest rate cut. Powell’s statements could have a significant impact on market sentiment.
In addition to Powell’s address, several other Fed officials will speak throughout the week. Crypto investors are expected to closely monitor these comments between Monday and Friday, especially following last week’s unexpected rate cut. Of particular interest is Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, who is slated to speak on both Tuesday and Thursday.
“The committee’s larger policy action could be interpreted as a premature declaration of victory on our price stability mandate. I believe that moving at a measured pace toward a more neutral policy stance will ensure further progress in bringing inflation down to our 2% target,” Bowman said in a statement on Friday.
Bowman has become a focal point due to her dissenting stance on the recent policy decision, marking the first Fed governor to hold a variant view since 2005. Given her unique position, Bowman’s upcoming remarks will be closely watched, as investors seek clarity on her concerns about the speed of rate reductions.
Core PCE Inflation
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, due on Friday, will be a key economic indicator to watch this week. The core PCE, which excludes volatile categories like food and energy, is one of the critical data points the Federal Reserve uses to assess inflation trends and guide future monetary policy decisions.
Analysts predict a 0.2% month-over-month rise in core PCE and a 2.7% year-on-year increase. Meanwhile, headline inflation is expected to slow to 2.3%.
If PCE inflation comes in lower than expected for August, it could boost the likelihood of additional interest rate cuts, a development that would be favorable for Bitcoin. Lower rates tend to encourage borrowing, leading to increased liquidity in the financial markets.
Read more: How to Protect Yourself From Inflation Using Cryptocurrency
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For Bitcoin, an environment of lower rates and more liquidity is typically positive, as investors often turn to riskier assets during such periods. BeInCrypto data shows Bitcoin is trading for $63,882 at the time of writing, up by 1.51% since the Monday session started.
Disclaimer
In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s aSOPR Resets To 1.01 — Here’s Why It Could Spark A Rally?
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Following a brief ascent above $99,000 on Friday, the Bitcoin market experienced a negative end to the past trading week as prices crashed below $96,000 in a sharp descent. Based on these happenings, the premier cryptocurrency remains in consolidation with little indication of its long-term price movement. Notably, blockchain analytics firm Glassnode has shared a recent network development hinting at a possible price rally.
Bitcoin At A Crossroads: Key Metric Set Could Decide Next Move
In an X post on Friday, Glassnode reports that Bitcoin’s aSOPR is at 1.01, a critical metric level that places the crypto asset in a delicate market position. Generally, an adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) is an on-chain metric that measures the profitability of Bitcoin transactions by comparing the selling price of coins to their acquisition price.
When the aSOPR is above 1, it indicates that the average Bitcoin holder is selling at a profit. Conversely, a value below one indicates that BTC is being sold at a loss. Therefore, Bitcoin’s aSOPR at 1.01 suggests that market participants are barely making profits on their transactions.
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According to Glassnode, the BTC market is historically a breakeven point where further movement of the aSOPR in either direction could significantly impact price trajectory. In 2021, Bitcoin’s aSOPR reset to around 1.01 preceded a strong bull run that eventually resulted in the then new-all time of $64,800. A similar reset was also seen in late 2023 resulting in a price surge to around $69,000.
Going by these past events, if Bitcoin’s aSOPR holds above 1.01, it would suggest buyer absorption indicating a renewed market confidence in anticipation of an incoming price rally. On the other hand, if the aSOPR decline continues a break below 1.0, this development would mean sellers are offloading BTC at a loss which can signal further downward pressure.
BTC Price Outlook
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $96,300 following a significant 1.98% loss in the past day. Meanwhile, its daily trading volume has gained by 51.28% indicating an increased market interest. This increased market interest amidst price decline could be indicative of either a panic selling by concerned investors or strong accumulation by market bulls.
Based on the BTCUSDT daily chart, breaking and holding above $99,000 could mark an end to the current consolidation phase leading to a sustained price uptrend. However, a price fall below $95,000 could pave the way for all bearish possibilities with certain analysts hinting at a potential return to $76,000.
Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview
Bitcoin
VanEck Tool Shows Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Can Trim US Debt
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Asset manager VanEck has stated that a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could help mitigate the US’ growing debt, which currently stands at $36 trillion.
To explore the potential effects of this idea, the firm has developed an interactive tool inspired by the BITCOIN Act.
How Will a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Reduce US Debt?
The BITCOIN Act, introduced by Senator Cynthia Lummis, outlines a plan for the US government to acquire up to 1 million Bitcoins (BTC) over five years, purchasing no more than 200,000 BTC per year.
These assets would be held in a dedicated reserve for at least 20 years. Lummis believes such a reserve could substantially reduce the nation’s debt.
Notably, VanEck’s new calculator lets users know the impact of such a reserve. The tool allows the simulation of a variety of hypothetical scenarios by adjusting different variables.
These include the debt and BTC’s growth rates, the average purchase price of Bitcoin, and the total quantity of Bitcoin held in reserve. Meanwhile, VanEck has also included their own “optimistic projection.”
“If the US government follows the BITCOIN Act’s proposed path – accumulating 1 million BTC by 2029 – our analysis suggests this reserve could offset around $21 trillion of national debt by 2049. That would amount to 18% of total US debt at that time,” VanEck noted.
The analysis is based on assumptions regarding the future growth rates of both US debt and Bitcoin. VanEck has supposed a 5% annual growth rate for the national debt. This would see it rise from $36 trillion in 2025 to around $116 trillion by 2049.
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Similarly, Bitcoin is presumed to appreciate at a compounded rate of 25% per year. Its acquisition price is predicted to start at $100,000 per Bitcoin in 2025. Thus, by 2049, the price could potentially be $21 million per Bitcoin.
While the federal government considers the potential of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, interest is also rising at the state level. At least 20 US states have introduced bills to create digital asset reserves.
According to Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, state-level bills could collectively drive as much as $23 billion in Bitcoin purchases.
President Trump’s Crypto Promise
VanEck’s move comes as Bitcoin is receiving increasing political support. US President Donald Trump has reiterated his commitment to positioning the US as a global leader in cryptocurrency.
Speaking at the Future Investment Initiative Institute summit in Miami, Trump emphasized the economic growth driven by crypto-friendly policies.
“Bitcoin has set multiple all-time record highs because everyone knows that I’m committed to making America the crypto capital,” Trump said.
Since returning to office, Trump has signed an executive order to establish a national “digital asset stockpile.” He has also nominated pro-crypto leaders to head major regulatory bodies. However, whether a Bitcoin reserve will actually be established remains to be seen.
Disclaimer
In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
Bitcoin
$2 Billion Bitcoin, Ethereum Options Expiry Signals Market Volatility
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Today, approximately $2.04 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options are set to expire, creating significant anticipation in the crypto market.
Expiring crypto options often leads to notable price volatility. Therefore, traders and investors closely monitor the developments of today’s expiration.
Options Expiry: $2.04 Billion BTC and ETH Contracts Expire
Today’s expiring Bitcoin options have a notional value of $1.62 billion. These 16,561 expiring contracts have a put-to-call ratio of 0.76 and a maximum pain point of $98,000.
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On the other hand, Ethereum has 153,608 contracts with a notional value of $421.97 million. These expiring contracts have a put-to-call ratio of 0.48 and a max pain point of $2,700.
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At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $98,215, a 1.12% increase since Friday’s session opened. Ethereum trades at $2,746, marking a 0.20% decrease. In the context of options trading, the put-to-call ratio below 1 for BTC and ETH suggests a prevalence of purchase options (calls) over sales options (puts).
However, according to the max pain theory, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices could gravitate toward their respective strike prices as the expiration time nears. Doing so would cause most of the options to expire worthless and thus inflict “max pain”. This means that BTC and ETH prices could register a minor correction as the options near expiration at 8:00 AM UTC on Deribit.
It explains why analysts at Greeks.live noted a cautiously bearish sentiment in the market, with low volatility frustrating traders. They suggest ongoing concern among traders and investors, particularly around Bitcoin, with traders closely monitoring key price points.
“The group sentiment is cautiously bearish with low volatility frustrating traders. Participants are watching $96,500 level with skepticism about upward momentum, while discussing possibilities of volatility clustering at low levels around 40%,” the analysts wrote.
Elsewhere, Deribit warns that while low volatility feels safe, this sense of safety is only momentary, as markets tend not to wait long.
Bitcoin Price Outlook: Key Levels and Market Outlook
Bitcoin trades around $98,243, hovering above a critical demand zone between $93,700 and $91,000. This area has previously acted as strong support, indicating buyers may step in to defend these levels.
On the other hand, a key supply zone is positioned at around $103,991, where selling pressure has historically been significant. BTC has struggled to break past this level, making it a major resistance to watch.
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From a price action perspective, BTC has been forming lower highs and lower lows, suggesting a short-term bearish trend. However, the recent price movement hints at a possible reversal, as BTC is attempting to bounce off its demand zone.
The volume profile also shows significant trading activity near $103,991, reinforcing the resistance level. Meanwhile, a noticeable low volume area near $91,000 suggests that if BTC breaks below this level, a sharp drop could follow due to the lack of strong support.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 50.84, indicating neutral momentum. While BTC is not overbought or oversold, the RSI’s slight upward trend could signal growing buying interest.
If Bitcoin holds above the $93,700 support zone, it may attempt a push towards the $100,000 milestone. However, a breakdown below $91,000 could trigger a move lower, potentially testing the $88,000 to $85,000 range.
Disclaimer
In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
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