Following a brief ascent above $99,000 on Friday, the Bitcoin market experienced a negative end to the past trading week as prices crashed below $96,000 in a sharp descent. Based on these happenings, the premier cryptocurrency remains in consolidation with little indication of its long-term price movement. Notably, blockchain analytics firm Glassnode has shared a recent network development hinting at a possible price rally.

Bitcoin At A Crossroads: Key Metric Set Could Decide Next Move

In an X post on Friday, Glassnode reports that Bitcoin’s aSOPR is at 1.01, a critical metric level that places the crypto asset in a delicate market position. Generally, an adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) is an on-chain metric that measures the profitability of Bitcoin transactions by comparing the selling price of coins to their acquisition price.

When the aSOPR is above 1, it indicates that the average Bitcoin holder is selling at a profit. Conversely, a value below one indicates that BTC is being sold at a loss. Therefore, Bitcoin’s aSOPR at 1.01 suggests that market participants are barely making profits on their transactions.

According to Glassnode, the BTC market is historically a breakeven point where further movement of the aSOPR in either direction could significantly impact price trajectory. In 2021, Bitcoin’s aSOPR reset to around 1.01 preceded a strong bull run that eventually resulted in the then new-all time of $64,800. A similar reset was also seen in late 2023 resulting in a price surge to around $69,000.

Going by these past events, if Bitcoin’s aSOPR holds above 1.01, it would suggest buyer absorption indicating a renewed market confidence in anticipation of an incoming price rally. On the other hand, if the aSOPR decline continues a break below 1.0, this development would mean sellers are offloading BTC at a loss which can signal further downward pressure.

BTC Price Outlook

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $96,300 following a significant 1.98% loss in the past day. Meanwhile, its daily trading volume has gained by 51.28% indicating an increased market interest. This increased market interest amidst price decline could be indicative of either a panic selling by concerned investors or strong accumulation by market bulls.

Based on the BTCUSDT daily chart, breaking and holding above $99,000 could mark an end to the current consolidation phase leading to a sustained price uptrend. However, a price fall below $95,000 could pave the way for all bearish possibilities with certain analysts hinting at a potential return to $76,000.

Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview

Asset manager VanEck has stated that a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could help mitigate the US’ growing debt, which currently stands at $36 trillion.

To explore the potential effects of this idea, the firm has developed an interactive tool inspired by the BITCOIN Act.

How Will a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Reduce US Debt?

The BITCOIN Act, introduced by Senator Cynthia Lummis, outlines a plan for the US government to acquire up to 1 million Bitcoins (BTC) over five years, purchasing no more than 200,000 BTC per year.

These assets would be held in a dedicated reserve for at least 20 years. Lummis believes such a reserve could substantially reduce the nation’s debt.

Notably, VanEck’s new calculator lets users know the impact of such a reserve. The tool allows the simulation of a variety of hypothetical scenarios by adjusting different variables. 

These include the debt and BTC’s growth rates, the average purchase price of Bitcoin, and the total quantity of Bitcoin held in reserve. Meanwhile, VanEck has also included their own “optimistic projection.”

“If the US government follows the BITCOIN Act’s proposed path – accumulating 1 million BTC by 2029 – our analysis suggests this reserve could offset around $21 trillion of national debt by 2049. That would amount to 18% of total US debt at that time,” VanEck noted.

The analysis is based on assumptions regarding the future growth rates of both US debt and Bitcoin. VanEck has supposed a 5% annual growth rate for the national debt. This would see it rise from $36 trillion in 2025 to around $116 trillion by 2049. 

Similarly, Bitcoin is presumed to appreciate at a compounded rate of 25% per year. Its acquisition price is predicted to start at $100,000 per Bitcoin in 2025. Thus, by 2049, the price could potentially be $21 million per Bitcoin.

While the federal government considers the potential of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, interest is also rising at the state level. At least 20 US states have introduced bills to create digital asset reserves. 

According to Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, state-level bills could collectively drive as much as $23 billion in Bitcoin purchases. 

President Trump’s Crypto Promise

VanEck’s move comes as Bitcoin is receiving increasing political support. US President Donald Trump has reiterated his commitment to positioning the US as a global leader in cryptocurrency. 

Speaking at the Future Investment Initiative Institute summit in Miami, Trump emphasized the economic growth driven by crypto-friendly policies.

“Bitcoin has set multiple all-time record highs because everyone knows that I’m committed to making America the crypto capital,” Trump said.

Since returning to office, Trump has signed an executive order to establish a national “digital asset stockpile.” He has also nominated pro-crypto leaders to head major regulatory bodies. However, whether a Bitcoin reserve will actually be established remains to be seen.

Today, approximately $2.04 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options are set to expire, creating significant anticipation in the crypto market.

Expiring crypto options often leads to notable price volatility. Therefore, traders and investors closely monitor the developments of today’s expiration.

Options Expiry: $2.04 Billion BTC and ETH Contracts Expire

Today’s expiring Bitcoin options have a notional value of $1.62 billion. These 16,561 expiring contracts have a put-to-call ratio of 0.76 and a maximum pain point of $98,000.

On the other hand, Ethereum has 153,608 contracts with a notional value of $421.97 million. These expiring contracts have a put-to-call ratio of 0.48 and a max pain point of $2,700.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $98,215, a 1.12% increase since Friday’s session opened. Ethereum trades at $2,746, marking a 0.20% decrease. In the context of options trading, the put-to-call ratio below 1 for BTC and ETH suggests a prevalence of purchase options (calls) over sales options (puts).

However, according to the max pain theory, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices could gravitate toward their respective strike prices as the expiration time nears. Doing so would cause most of the options to expire worthless and thus inflict “max pain”. This means that BTC and ETH prices could register a minor correction as the options near expiration at 8:00 AM UTC on Deribit.

It explains why analysts at Greeks.live noted a cautiously bearish sentiment in the market, with low volatility frustrating traders. They suggest ongoing concern among traders and investors, particularly around Bitcoin, with traders closely monitoring key price points.

“The group sentiment is cautiously bearish with low volatility frustrating traders. Participants are watching $96,500 level with skepticism about upward momentum, while discussing possibilities of volatility clustering at low levels around 40%,” the analysts wrote.

Elsewhere, Deribit warns that while low volatility feels safe, this sense of safety is only momentary, as markets tend not to wait long.

Bitcoin Price Outlook: Key Levels and Market Outlook

Bitcoin trades around $98,243, hovering above a critical demand zone between $93,700 and $91,000. This area has previously acted as strong support, indicating buyers may step in to defend these levels.

On the other hand, a key supply zone is positioned at around $103,991, where selling pressure has historically been significant. BTC has struggled to break past this level, making it a major resistance to watch.

From a price action perspective, BTC has been forming lower highs and lower lows, suggesting a short-term bearish trend. However, the recent price movement hints at a possible reversal, as BTC is attempting to bounce off its demand zone.

The volume profile also shows significant trading activity near $103,991, reinforcing the resistance level. Meanwhile, a noticeable low volume area near $91,000 suggests that if BTC breaks below this level, a sharp drop could follow due to the lack of strong support.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 50.84, indicating neutral momentum. While BTC is not overbought or oversold, the RSI’s slight upward trend could signal growing buying interest.

If Bitcoin holds above the $93,700 support zone, it may attempt a push towards the $100,000 milestone. However, a breakdown below $91,000 could trigger a move lower, potentially testing the $88,000 to $85,000 range.