The Bitcoin (BTC) market has been highly volatile in the last week and under a strong bearish influence. In this period, Bitcoin has crashed by over 15% falling as low as $80,000. Interestingly, blockchain analytics firm Glassnode has provided an in-depth analysis of investors’ behavior amidst this price decline highlighting the cohort with the largest realized losses.

BTC 1-Day To 1-Week Holders Lead Market Liquidation Pressure

On Friday, February 28, Bitcoin dipped below $80,000 reaching a price level last seen in November 2024. In response, the BTC market recorded $685 million in realized losses in addition to the initial $2.16 billion between February 25-27. In a recent X post, Glassnode analysts dived into the market sell-off on Friday, indicating that this recent capitulation is primarily concentrated among short-term holders (STH) who are realizing losses at a much higher rate than long-term holders.

From Glassnode’s report, the most affected cohort of STH has been new market entrants over the past week as indicated in the following data: 1-day to 1-week holders with $238.8 million in losses,1-week to 1-month holders ($187.6 million), 1-month to 3-month holders ($132.4 million) and 24-hour buyers ($104.9 million). However, it’s worth noting that holders from the past 3-6 months also experienced a significant spike in realized losses. This group recorded $ 12.7 million in realized losses on Friday, representing a 95.4% gain from the previous day.

Looking further, Glassnode’s report also realized the price dip on Friday also pushed the Bitcoin loss realization average rate to $57.1 million per hour.  The realization speed per cohort of the STH – who account for the majority of the market losses is as follows: 1-day to 1-week holders with $19.9 million/hour, 1-week to 1-month holders ($13.9 million/hour), 1-month to 3-month holders ($14.2 million/hour) and 24-hour buyers ($8.04 million/hour).

As expected, the 1-day to 1-week cohort is the dominant force in driving liquidity pressure with a loss realization rate almost double the next largest group.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Stay Resolute

According to more data from  Glassnode’s report, Bitcoin long-term holders from the last 6-12 months have shown minimal, negligible loss realization despite a widespread market capitulation.

This development indicates that the longer-term investors are largely unbothered by the recent sell-off and price correction with strong confidence for a market rebound. At press time, Bitcoin trades at $85,200 following some price recovery on Friday. However, its weekly losses remain at 11.34% indicating the current bearish move in the market.

Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview

Metaplanet, the Japanese company that has established itself as a prominent corporate adopter of Bitcoin, is starting to experience modest losses on its investments. 

This comes as the cryptocurrency’s price has fallen to its lowest levels in over three months.

Over the past week, Bitcoin has been undergoing a sharp downturn, with weekly losses extending to 18.2%. In fact, today, its price dropped to intra-day lows below $80,000, marking price levels last seen in November 2024.

At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $80,462 after a 6.5% decrease in the past 24 hours. The broader crypto market was also down, with the total market capitalization depreciating by 7.7%.

For Metaplanet, which has an average cost of $81,458 per Bitcoin, these fluctuations spell trouble. According to the latest data from BitcoinTreasuries, Metaplanet is grappling with a 2.0% loss on its Bitcoin investments.

The company currently holds 2,235 BTC, valued at $179.54 million. This represents a substantial 20.9% of the firm’s total market capitalization.

The financial challenges extend beyond its cryptocurrency holdings. Metaplanet’s stock has also taken a notable hit. 

“Metaplanet (3350 JP) is now down 54% since the peak,” BitMex Research noted.

However, BitMex highlighted that Metaplanet’s stock price is still significantly higher than the value of the Bitcoin it holds. Meanwhile, according to Yahoo Finance, Metaplanet shares declined 17.4% today, closing at ¥3,310 (approximately $22).

Despite the dip, Metaplanet has remained steadfast in its commitment to Bitcoin. On February 27, the company issued ¥2 billion (approximately $13.3 million) in zero-interest bonds to purchase Bitcoin. This marked its seventh bond issuance for the same purpose. These bonds are scheduled for redemption on August 26, at face value. 

The move is in line with Metaplanet’s 2025 roadmap. The company aims to accumulate 10,000 Bitcoins by the end of the year.

“The market has recognized Metaplanet as Tokyo’s preeminent Bitcoin company, and we are seizing this momentum to solidify our position as a global leader. Our vision is to lead the Bitcoin renaissance in Japan and emerge as one of the largest corporate Bitcoin holders globally. This plan is our commitment to that future,” Metaplanet’s CEO Simon Gerovich said.

Metaplanet’s ambitious strategy extends beyond 2025, with a target of accumulating 21,000 Bitcoins by the end of 2026. The company calls it the “21 Million Plan.”

This initiative involves the issuance of 21 million shares through moving strike warrants. It represents Asia’s largest-ever equity capital raise for Bitcoin, with a funding target of ¥116.65 billion ($785 million).

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has hit a three-month low, reversing its post-election gains following Donald Trump’s victory.

While initial market sentiment blamed the downturn on US President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the recent Bybit hack, analysts are now pointing to a more structural cause.

Why Bitcoin Is Crashing, Analyst Offers New Perspective

Crypto analyst Kyle Chasse ascribes the ongoing crypto market crash to unwinding the cash and carry trade that has been suppressing BTC’s price for months. He explains that hedge funds have exploited a low-risk arbitrage trade involving Bitcoin spot ETFs (exchange-traded funds) and CME futures.

“Bitcoin is crashing. Wondering why? The cash & carry trade that’s been suppressing BTC’s price is now unwinding,” he stated.

The strategy involved buying Bitcoin spot ETFs such as those from BlackRock (IBIT) and Fidelity (FBTC). It also involved shorting BTC futures on the CME and farming the spread for an annualized return of approximately 5.68%.

According to the analyst, some funds used leverage to boost double-digit returns. However, this trade is now collapsing, causing massive liquidity withdrawals from the market and sending Bitcoin’s price into free fall.

The collapse of the cash and carry trade has led to over $1.9 billion in Bitcoin sold in the past week. This marks a significant decline in CME open interest as hedge funds unwind positions. It has also caused a double-digit percentage drop in Bitcoin’s price within days.

According to Chasse, hedge funds never bet on Bitcoin’s long-term price appreciation. Instead, they were farming a risk-free yield using arbitrage. Now that the trade is dead, they are rapidly pulling liquidity, intensifying Bitcoin’s sell-off.

“Why is this happening? Because hedge funds don’t care about Bitcoin. They weren’t betting on BTC mooning. They were farming low-risk yield. Now that the trade is dead, they’re pulling liquidity—leaving the market in free fall,” the analyst added.

Before the cash and carry unwind was identified, many traders blamed Trump’s aggressive tariffs. More recently, tariffs against the European Union sparked market fears. The recent Bybit hack also contributed to soured investor sentiment.

While Bitcoin remains under pressure, Kyle Chasse sees a path forward. More cash and carry unwinding is expected, meaning forced selling will continue until all hedge fund positions are cleared. Volatility will likely increase as leveraged positions get liquidated, leading to sharp swings in Bitcoin’s price.

If the analyst’s perspective is true, Bitcoin would need real, long-term holders to step in and absorb the selling pressure. According to technical analysis, Bitcoin’s next target could be around $70,000, a key support level that might stabilize the market.

Around this level, 6.76 million addresses hold approximately 2.64 million BTC tokens acquired at an average price of $65,296. Therefore, this zone may offer significant support for Bitcoin price, as holders prevent further losses.

The analyst acknowledges that ETF-driven demand was partly real but heavily influenced by arbitrage players looking for quick profits. For now, the market is undergoing a painful but necessary reset. With it, traders and investors should brace for volatility in what could lay the groundwork for Bitcoin’s next directional bias.