As the crypto market gears up for a potential bull run in 2025, analyst IonicXBT has shared his comprehensive guide on how to identify the Bitcoin market top in this cycle. The analysts’ guide is based upon the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), one of the lesser-known but highly useful metrics for analyzing Bitcoin.

IonicXBT Detailed SOPR Metric Guide

IonicXBT on X (formerly twitter) told his 125,000 followers that the SOPR metric has consistently accurately predicted the tops of previous crypto market cycles, citing instances of 2018 and 2021. The SOPR is a metric that tells us whether the average investor in the Bitcoin market is selling their coins at a profit or at a loss right now. 

When the indicator has a value greater than 1, it means that the average holder in the sector is selling their coins at some profit right now. On the other hand, a value under this threshold implies that loss-selling is dominant among the participants. According to the chart he dropped, he seemed to think that Bitcoin’s moving average SOPR has fallen below 1.0, indicating that most spent outputs are being sold at a loss.

He further highlighted that the current drop in SOPR indicates that the bottom of the correction is near, suggesting that the market is not yet close. 

Interestingly he urged his followers to remain calm as he emphasized on the significance of SOPR spikes, noting that they often signal market tops as long-term holders lock in profits. He further assured them of his commitment to providing accurate signals for identifying the market top which focuses on real strategies backed by data rather than hype or speculation. 

“But don’t worry, I’ll be the first to give you the signal of the top. No hype, no nonsense, Just real strategies backed by data,” the analyst said.

Alternative Guide To Know The Bitcoin Market Top Cycle

While IonicXBT has highlighted the SOPR metric as a valuable tool for predicting market tops, other analysts, such as Kaleo, have shared alternative indicators. Kaleo has presented an inverse Bitcoin chart suggesting that BTC could reach the trendline of his logarithmic growth curve by next year, potentially soaring to a massive price target of around $220,000.

In a recent post, Kaleo expressed growing bullishness, stating, “Alright, I’m giving in. Be more bullish.” Analyzing the inverse chart, he suggests that Bitcoin tends to experience steep rallies a few months after its halving event, when BTC miner rewards are slashed in half.

Kaleo believes that Bitcoin will consolidate for a few more days before initiating surges that break through multiple resistance levels. Based on the chart, he appears to predict that Bitcoin will reach new all-time highs by early next month. At the time of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at $62,092, up over 3% for the day. 

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market have been trading sideways for the better part of the year now. However, the tide is starting to turn as there could be a recovery trend for the crypto market very soon. To this end, a crypto founder has identified the best and worst times to be an investor in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Going by his prediction, the worst could be over for Bitcoin, and the market could be for a great time soon.

Best And Worst Time To Be In Bitcoin

Charles Edwards, founder of digital assets-focused hedge fund Capriole Investments, took to X (formerly Twitter), to share when he thinks is the best a worst time to be in Bitcoin. In the post, Edwards attached a screenshot of quarterly returns for Bitcoin, showing the best and worst-performing quarters.

According to the information, the best quarter for Bitcoin is the last quarter of the year, and the worst is the third quarter of the year. Going by this, it means that the Bitcoin price is currently going through its worst-performing quarter. However, this also means that the downtrend could be nearing its end since the month of September is almost over.

The average returns for the third quarter is shown to be +5.39%, the worst of any quarter. The second worst-performing quarter is the second quarter, but even that remains high at +26.89%, while the median returns for the fourth quarter is actually in the negative at -4.64%, an is the only quarter with a negative median return.

In contrast, the fourth quarter has always been bullish, with average returns of +88.84% and median returns of +56.90%. With less than two weeks left to go in the third quarter, Edwards believes that the worst is over. “If you are still here, congratulations. You made it through the worst time to be in Bitcoin. The best lies ahead,” the post read.

BTC Could Jump To New All-Time High In October

Going by the monthly returns for Bitcoin, as depicted on the Coinglass website, Edwards’ forecast that the decline is almost over looks to be correct. The months of October, November, and December have been some of the most bullish months for the coin in history, and this year could be the exact same.

If this trend holds, then the Bitcoin price could be looking at an average increase of around 20% in October. Such a price increase could set the BTC price on a path to a new all-time high. A continuation of the bullish trend would see the Bitcoin price hit a new all-time high by the time the year 2024 is over.

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

The Federal Reserve instituted a 50-point rate cut, with promising liquidity conditions for a Bitcoin price spike. However, risks abound with cuts this severe, and crypto profits are far from guaranteed.

Global liquidity is very likely to increase, but this might not equal Bitcoin inflows.

Rate Cuts, Liquidity and Bitcoin

The Federal Reserve has decided on a 50-point rate cut, and Bitcoin’s price has been soaring. Given these and broader market trends, many in the community expect a Bitcoin bull market.

However, rate cuts alone cannot guarantee such favorable market conditions; other factors are also crucial. The key to understanding all of this is global liquidity.

At first glance, Bitcoin’s price over the last few weeks has seemed ponderous, sluggish, and indecisive. Upon a closer look, though, it is actually trending closer than ever before. Raoul Pal, CEO and founder of Global Macro Investor, noted that this correlation was “close, very close” throughout 2024.

Compared to previous years’ data on Global Liquidity (L2) and the price of Bitcoin, this year’s proximity is staggering.

In an exclusive interview with BeInCrypto, Adrian Fritz, Head of Research at 21Shares, described the relationship between cuts and liquidity.

“The upcoming Fed rate cut could lead to short-term Bitcoin price volatility. However, the extent of the cut will play a crucial role in shaping market reactions. A more aggressive 50 bps cut could offer short-term liquidity relief,” he added, with obvious importance for Bitcoin,” Fritz said.

The “more aggressive” rate cut has taken place, and Bitcoin has already responded in kind. The dollar is the global reserve currency, and US rate cuts have well-established impacts on liquidity and market risks. Crypto provides an invaluable reservoir of liquidity for international markets, and this dynamic has only increased.

Quinten Francois, co-founder of WeRate, has noted a trend pointing towards a liquidity spike, and Bitcoin will surely benefit from it. Seems simple, right?

Read More: Bitcoin Halving History: Everything You Need To Know

Dangers in a Volatile Market

Rob Viglione, CEO of Horizen Labs, also discussed these dynamics with BeInCrypto. Like Fritz, he also expected a 25-point rate cut:

“Since a 25 basis point cut is largely expected, major price swings are unlikely, but the direction of travel in the short term will likely be positive as investors move to more volatile assets. In the longer term, lower interest rates will continue to favor risk-on assets like Bitcoin, as investors continue to seek higher returns outside of traditional investments,” Viglione claimed.

However, both underestimated the extent of these cuts. Viglione said that major price swings were unlikely in a 25-point scenario, but cuts are much more severe.

In other words, the market could be set up for a major spike. There are hazards, too, though, that may stand between Bitcoin and a big score.

“A 50-point cut may also heighten concerns about deeper economic challenges or the risk of an impending recession, which could trigger a price pullback. This is especially relevant considering Bitcoin’s recent failure to break through the $60,000 mark and September’s historically poor performance for both Bitcoin and broader markets,” Fritz concluded.

Thankfully, Bitcoin has already broken through $60,000. Bitcoin is viewed, perhaps incorrectly, as a risk-on asset, and lowered interest rates do benefit these. For now, all the conitions seem reasonable to expect a price spike, provided that investor confidence remains high. Nobody can know the future, but we may indeed see $100,000 Bitcoin sooner than we think.