Dan Patrick, Lieutenant Governor for the State of Texas, listed Bitcoin Reserve as a top priority for 2025. Other industry-adjacent priorities include “Texas D.O.G.E.” and electrical grid upgrades.

However, Patrick did not give any clear indications of pro-crypto sentiments before today and actually criticized the mining industry in Texas last year. It is unclear how deep his newfound commitment to the industry will go.

A Texas Bitcoin Reserve

The movement to create a US national Bitcoin Reserve has been growing in strength for months now. Around 15 states are crafting legislation for state-level Bitcoin reserves, and Texas has been an early and persistent member of this coalition.

Today, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick listed the establishment of a Texas Reserve as a “top priority” for 2025.

Although the push for a national-level reserve is apparently growing, it has received a few setbacks. President Trump issued an executive order to create a “digital stockpile,” which is neither Bitcoin-exclusive nor integrated with the Federal Reserve.

Some have feared that this half-measure may sap energy for a national reserve, but Texas is still trying to stockpile Bitcoin.

Initially, Patrick announced the names of 25 bills with the “top priority” designation and will follow up with 15 more. However, only a few of these directly or indirectly benefit crypto. The Texas Bitcoin Reserve proposal is an obvious help, as is the “Texas D.O.G.E.” proposal.

However, the governor preemptively addressed these concerns, saying he limited his initial set of goals:

“Senators like having a low bill number since it shows their bill is a priority of the Lt. Governor and has a high probability of passage. Just because a bill is not included in the top 40 does not mean it is not a priority for me or the Senate. There will be hundreds of bills that pass the Senate, all of which are important to Texas,” Governor Patrick claimed.

Additionally, several other priority bills would clearly help Texas’ Bitcoin industry through one avenue: crypto mining. The state has become a hub for mining, with several leading companies relocating to Texas in the last year.

Some of Patrick’s other priorities, like investing in the electrical grid or water supply, would likely benefit this industry.

“A US state moving to hold BTC on the books? That’s next-level adoption. If this passes, Texas wouldn’t just be mining-friendly – it’d be holding hard money on a state balance sheet,” wrote Mario Nawfal.

Ultimately, though, it may be too early to get particularly excited. Patrick has occupied this position for a decade, and he hasn’t made any substantial pro-crypto statements or policies before this.

In fact, he publicly criticized the mining sector last year. In short, the governor may have placed a top priority on a Texas Bitcoin Reserve, but the bill still needs to pass.

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% on Wednesday.  This marks a ‘hawkish pause’ as inflation remains elevated and economic activity grows at a steady pace. 

The decision follows three consecutive rate cuts in late 2024 but signals that policymakers remain cautious about premature monetary easing.

Steady Interest Rates Likely to be Bullish for Crypto 

There haven’t been any major market movements following the announcement. Usually, steady rates are bearish for the crypto market. Fed’s stance suggests that capital will not flow into high-risk assets as quickly. 

However, major cryptocurrencies saw a modest uptick. Bitcoin, Solana, and XRP each gained nearly 2% in the hour after the news. 

So, there’s likely a market optimism over continued liquidity stability. A pause in rate hikes is generally viewed as bullish for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. 

Lower interest rates—or expectations of stable rates—make traditional fixed-income investments less attractive. This drives investors toward higher-yielding assets like equities and crypto. 

“Trump’s out here begging for a cut, but the Fed’s like ‘nah.’ It’s bad news for crypto, cause when interest rates stay high, investors chill out and avoid risk. But if Powell flips the script and gets all dovish, we could see some action,” Mario Nawfal wrote on X (formerly Twitter).

Additionally, a ‘Hawkish Pause,’ suggests that economic conditions are stable enough to avoid aggressive tightening. This creates a favorable environment for crypto markets, which thrive on liquidity and investor confidence.

Fed’s Policy Stance and Market Expectations

Despite keeping rates steady, the Fed’s statement indicated that inflation remains elevated and removed previous references to progress toward its 2% goal. This suggests that further rate cuts may not be imminent. 

However, steady employment levels and economic resilience reduce recession fears, supporting speculative assets like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. 

President Trump had urged the Fed to continue cutting rates, but central bank officials chose to maintain their current stance.

Overall, the crypto market will closely monitor any signals of future liquidity expansion. Until the Fed shifts toward rate cuts or implements measures that increase monetary stimulus, altcoins are expected to underperform Bitcoin. 

Bitcoin, with its stronger institutional appeal and macro resilience, remains the safer bet in a hawkish monetary environment.

Recent data from Glassnode shows that new buyers, who have held their assets for 24 hours to three months, now own 50% of the market’s value.

This figure tells an important story about the current state of the crypto market, especially as Bitcoin fluctuates around $100,000. The top cryptocurrency experienced big price changes, going up over $105,000 on Sunday, dropping below $98,000 on Monday, and then increasing by 2.04% on Tuesday.

New Whales Make Waves In The Cryptocurrency Ocean

Since mid-2024, the entry of new Bitcoin whales (see CryptoQuant graph below) has significantly changed the market landscape. These heavyweight investors, defined as entities that have held more than 1,000 BTC for less than 155 days, have increased their market share from 17% in July 2024 to 60%.

This increase in whale accumulation, which occurred while Bitcoin was trading at $55,000, demonstrates strong institutional confidence despite market volatility.

At 50.2%, the proportion of wealth held by new #Bitcoin investors (24H to 3 months), is still well below the levels seen during previous ATH cycle tops:

🔺2018 peak: 85%
🔺2021 peak: 74%https://t.co/hkTSpFVAPG pic.twitter.com/6gcOgIIlvM

— glassnode (@glassnode) January 28, 2025

Historical Patterns Indicate Potential Upside

Previous market cycle analysis shows that we still have a long way to go till peak euphoria. New investors owned a far larger share of market wealth in the 2018 and 2021 market peaks—85% and 74% respectively.

Today’s more modest 50.2% figure indicates substantial room for growth before matching historical patterns. The Realized Cap HODL Waves metric reinforces this view, suggesting current accumulation levels remain relatively conservative compared to previous bull markets.

Market Structure Demonstrates Surprising Resilience

Cryptocurrency experts say that Bitcoin is currently in a crucial trade area. The digital asset faces strong obstacles near $109,000, but it has solid support at $91,700.

Traders are focusing on these numbers to try to guess the market’s next big change. Market analysts think Bitcoin needs to rise by 70% to reach an overbought level of about $180,000, a goal that has caught the attention of both regular and big investors.

Critical Support Levels Shape Trading Strategy

The way the market is set presents an interesting duality. Bitcoin stays above vital support levels, but rejection at upper resistance bands has created a turbulent trading zone.

Technical specialist Ali Martinez emphasizes the importance of the $91,700 support level since it can decide the near-term price stability of Bitcoin.

#Bitcoin $BTC was rejected at the upper red pricing band at $109,400. Failing to reclaim this level shifts focus to the next critical support at the orange MVRV pricing band, currently sitting at $91,700. pic.twitter.com/h0EgU11fWO

— Ali (@ali_charts) January 28, 2025

One unique quality of current market phase is short-term volatility; Bitcoin shows significant profits and losses rapidly one after the other.

This unique wealth distribution pattern along with more institutional involvement point to a different course for the present bull market than past cycles.

Compared to past highs, the lesser amount of wealth under control by new investors could suggest a maturing market with better foundations and maybe more sustainable development patterns.

The proportion between new and experienced investors could be crucial in deciding the next major movement of the market as Bitcoin keeps crossing unexplored areas.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView