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Bitcoin Price Support At $54,450: Four Factors To Watch

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Bitcoin’s (BTC) price is down 24% since topping out at $71,758 in early June. As sentiment remains soar, the next directional bias for the pioneer cryptocurrency hinges on four critical narratives that continue to unfold.

Retail traders adjust their trading strategies based on market sentiment, which explains the highly volatile nature of crypto.

Critical Factors Impacting Bitcoin Price Now

The $54,450 level has presented as a possible support for Bitcoin price. Two failed breakdowns after the Relative Strength Index (RSI) tested the critical threshold of 30 suggest that BTC may have bottomed out.

Bitcoin price performance
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: TradingView

Nevertheless, whether a recovery is sustainable will depend on how the four macro market movers play out.

  1. Ethereum ETFs Launch Could Inspire Positive Market Sentiment

Crypto supporters join Ethereum token holders to see whether Spot Ethereum ETFs (Exchange-traded funds) will begin trading this week. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) collected final S-1 Forms from prospective ETH ETF issuers on Monday. This suggests progress in the approval process for these financial instruments.

Crypto financial services platform Matrixport shares the optimism. The firm anticipates possible launches this week as the deadline for issuers to submit amended S-1 filings reaches.

According to the report, progress could be as swift as in May, when the regulator green-lit the 19b-4 forms only three days after submissions.

Ethereum ETF Approval
Ethereum ETF Approval. Source: Matrixort

Along with the expected launch, the Matrixport report anticipates a 12% recovery in the Ethereum price to $3,400. This speculation comes as ETH jumped 20% in May after approval of 19-b filings. Bullish sentiment from an approval is expected to spill over to Bitcoin, supporting a recovery.

Also Read: Ethereum ETF Explained: What It Is and How It Works

2. Mt. Gox Impact May Already Be Priced In

Anxiety around Mt. Gox repayments continues to fade as the market has already accounted for or priced in the impact. Mt. Gox Rehabilitation Trustee initiated repayments in Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) last week.

Bitstamp exchange, in agreement with Mt. Gox, indicated that it will ensure that investors are compensated as soon as possible. It highlighted a 60-day timeline for token distribution, with some creditors already confirming receipt. Kraken, one of the five exchanges the trustee will use for reimbursement, has a 90-day timeline.

Japan’s Bitbank and SBI VC Trade exchanges have already received and reportedly distributed their allocated funds. In so doing, they effectively beat their 14-day timeline. As creditor reimbursement by the defunct exchange’s trustee continues, optimism continues to be restored in the market.

This could bode well for Bitcoin price, especially if creditors do not cash in upon reception.

“Many of these creditors are long-term Bitcoiners, early adopters who are technologically adept and have previously rejected aggressive offers to liquidate their claims for cash,” Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of research opined.

3. German Government’s Bitcoin Sell-off

Since June 19, the German government has moved more than 10,000 BTC. This is worth almost $1 billion in Bitcoin moved to various crypto wallets and exchanges. This catalyzed the recent Bitcoin sell-off as investors front-run a possible supply shock.

However, based on Arkham data, token balances are depleting in the govenment’s reserve.

German government BTC Transactions,
German government BTC Transactions, Source: Arkham

There is speculation that the German government will eventually slow down on Bitcoin transactions, which could play in favor of the flagship crypto asset. One of the country’s MPs, Joana Cotar, who is a renowned crypto activist, said German’s local media had captured the call out, with investors in the country expressing anger.

“The German press picks it up,” Cotar wrote.

Read more: Who Owns the Most Bitcoin in 2024?

4. Federal Reserve Chair Testimony This Week

Inflation is steadily decelerating in the US, and the country’s economy is showing strength but is still far away from satisfactory levels. With these, a soft landing seems likely, especially after the July 5 positive payroll data. The Federal Reserve’s long-awaited pivot in monetary policy now looks like a possibility.

“Fed’s latest projections are keeping investors cautious. Fewer rate cuts than hoped for are putting pressure on riskier assets. Political uncertainty in Europe and a stronger USD are pushing BTC down,” a popular account on X wrote.

Crypto markets continue to feel the heat of these macro events. This week is critical as Fed Chair Jerome Powell prepares to address Congress on July 9 and 10.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Bitcoin Price Might Never Dip Below $70,000 Again After The US Elections, Here’s Why

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The US presidential elections have come and gone, and the only thing left is the results. Interestingly, a snapshot of the Bitcoin price during the elections showed Bitcoin trading just above $70,000. This is a notable price to follow, as history shows this might be the price support for Bitcoin in the foreseeable future. Interestingly, this phenomenon goes back to the Bitcoin price levels in previous US elections.

Why Bitcoin Price Might Never Dip Below $70,000 Again

Bitcoin has largely been on an uptrend since Monday, when it kicked off a run after it rebounded to the upside from $67,000. This run continued, allowing the Bitcoin average price during the 2024 presidential elections to be around $70,110. 

Historically, U.S. election cycles have often been accompanied by shifts in Bitcoin’s value, marking crucial price points that tend to establish longer-term support levels. 

To understand this trend, we need to look at the past four election cycles. Back in 2012, during the early days of the crypto industry, the Bitcoin price traded at a modest $10 on the US presidential election day, a price point that now seems almost unimaginable. By 2016, Bitcoin’s election-day price had climbed to $710, setting a new baseline that it has never revisited since.

The most interesting one was what happened after the 2020 US presidential election, when the Bitcoin price was trading around $13,555. The Bitcoin price has never revisited this price point again since then up until the time of writing. What’s more interesting is that this price point even served as the lowest support level during the 2022 bear market price crash. 

If these historical trends are any indication, the 2024 election-day price of $70,110 could become a similar stronghold and a price floor for Bitcoin in the coming years.  This level might even serve as critical support should a bear market eventually take hold at any point.

Bitcoin price
Source: X

What’s Next For The Bitcoin Price?

As of now, Bitcoin is trading above $73,200 after experiencing an intense surge over the past 24 hours. This remarkable rally saw Bitcoin climb nearly 10% within a single day, reaching an intraday high of $75,358. This milestone has now become Bitcoin’s highest trading level, as it broke past its previous all-time high of $73,737 in March 2024.

Although the Bitcoin price has pulled back slightly likely due to some investors cashing in on recent profits, the rally is expected to resume anytime from now. Considering this momentum, Bitcoin remains well-positioned to challenge the $80,000 mark before the end of November, especially if buying interest continues to drive the current uptrend.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com
BTC price above $74,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com



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Bitcoin Price After US Presidential Elections: Here’s How BTC Reacted To Previous Winners

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Market analysts have continued to deliberate on how the Bitcoin price could react to a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris victory in the US presidential elections. History indicates that Bitcoin’s future trajectory is bullish, irrespective of who wins the elections. 

How The Bitcoin Price Has Reacted To Previous Winners

The Bitcoin price has always hit a new all-time high (ATH) regardless of the winners in the past US presidential elections. In 2012, after Barack Obama won the elections, Bitcoin rallied and reached a new ATH of $1,200 in 2013. Its price then consolidated until the next election in 2016. 

Bitcoin price 1
Source: X

The 2016 US presidential elections, which Donald Trump won, also sparked the beginning of another impressive rally for the Bitcoin price, which rose to a new ATH of $19,000 the following year. In 2020, following Joe Biden’s victory in the US presidential election, BTC rose to a new ATH of $69,000. 

The Bitcoin price rally after the US presidential elections is believed to be due to the market certainty that the election aftermath provides. Meanwhile, based on history, the BTC rally could begin as soon as December, with the flagship crypto hitting a new ATH as soon as January 2024. 

In 2016, the Bitcoin price rally began about three weeks before the election and went on to hit a new high in the first week of January 2017. In 2020, BTC had also consolidated for about six months before it began to rally from $11,000 just about three weeks before the US elections and then went on to reach a new high of $42,000 in January 2021.

Bitcoin’s recent price action also looks to be playing out the same way as BTC began rallying in mid-October and even came close to hitting its current ATH of $73,700 late last month. As such, there is the possibility that the flagship crypto could again retest this ATH and surpass it as soon as January 2024 or even before then. 

There Could Be Some Volatility In The Coming Days

In an X post, Crypto analyst Ali Martinez warned that the days following the last three US presidential elections have been volatile for the Bitcoin price. However, he added that the overall trend has stayed upward. 

Bitcoin price 2
Source: X

Economist and crypto analyst Alex Krüger also warned about the potential pullback the Bitcoin price could face after the US elections. He claimed that there is a 45% chance that BTC could drop to as low as $65,000 if Kamala Harris wins the elections. 

Due to his pro-crypto stance, Donald Trump looks to be the most preferred candidate in the crypto community. As such, the market could initially react negatively to a Harris win while taking in Trump’s loss. 

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $68,000, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. 

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com
BTC price pushes above $68,000 again | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com



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What $2.2 Billion Means for Market

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Defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox, once the most significant player in Bitcoin trading, moved $2.2 billion worth of Bitcoin on Monday. The transaction marked one of its largest transactions since its infamous 2014 collapse.

Blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence identified the movement of 32,371 BTC, a transaction that has sent waves through the crypto market.

Mt. Gox Moves 32,371 Bitcoin

Arkham Intelligence’s analysis revealed that a prominent wallet address labeled “1FG2C…Rveoy,” moved 30,371 BTC, while an additional 2,000 BTC initially went to a Mt. Gox cold wallet before being moved to a different, unmarked address.

Spotonchain confirms the report, indicating that over the last four days, Mt. Gox has moved Bitcoin worth $2.22 billion. Among these tokens, 296 BTC valued at $20.13 million was moved to B2C2 and OKX. Such significant transfers are noteworthy because they often signal preparations for creditor distributions.

Read more: Top Crypto Bankruptcies: What You Need To Know

Mt. Gox BTC Transfers
Mt. Gox BTC Transfers. Source: Arkham Intelligence

As BeInCrypto reported, Mt. Gox has already funneled smaller amounts to creditors using exchanges like Bitstamp and Kraken. The exchanges helped facilitate smooth transfers for those affected by the exchange’s collapse a decade ago. Meanwhile, analysts predict continued volatility, especially as the US election cycle adds a layer of uncertainty to global markets.

“The recent $2.2 billion Bitcoin movement and extended repayment timeline from Mt. Gox will likely inject some volatility into the market in the short term. With such a large amount of Bitcoin potentially entering circulation, there’s bound to be short-term price swings as recipients decide whether to hold or sell,” Peter Watson, Chief Market Officer at Velar, told BeInCrypto.  

Indeed, following the transfer, Bitcoin prices momentarily dipped below $68,000 during Asian market trading, briefly rattling investor confidence. However, the asset quickly rebounded to trade for $68,810 as of writing.

BTC Price Performance
BTC Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

However, Watson says the impact may be less severe than some fear, especially as many creditors have had years to consider their strategies. Further, he observes that this could benefit market confidence.

“For many, seeing the Mt. Gox saga finally come to a close may reinforce the belief that Bitcoin is better equipped for sustained growth and stability.. ultimately strengthening confidence in its future,”  Watson added.

An Ongoing Saga of Repayment and Recovery

The transfer occurred just a week after Mt. Gox extended its repayment deadline for creditors by another year, much to their frustration. The decision was partly due to the logistical and technical hurdles of coordinating payments to thousands of creditors.

“Many rehabilitation creditors still have not received their repayments because they have not completed the necessary procedures for receiving repayments. Additionally, a considerable number of rehabilitation creditors have not received their repayments due to various reasons, such as issues arising during the repayments process,” Mt. Gox explained.

This process has been an agonizing journey for creditors, filled with delays, legal complications, and financial uncertainty. The repayment saga continues, fueling concerns over market volatility. However, analysts suggest that the postponement could be delaying a potential sell-off.

“$4 billion payment selling pressure now shifted to 2025,” one user shared on X.

Read more: Who Owns the Most Bitcoin in 2024?

According to data on Arkham, Mt. Gox still holds 44,378 BTC, which is valued at approximately $3.05 billion. As the market continues to advance, events like Mt. Gox’s transfers serve as reminders of the industry’s turbulent past. For creditors, however, the wait remains, extending a wait that has already spanned nearly a decade.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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