Bitcoin
Bitcoin Faces 25% Correction Risk Amid Global Liquidity Tightening
Bitcoin (BTC) price action continues to come under focus as analysts consider its correlation with the global M2 money supply.
A notable projection suggests the pioneer cryptocurrency may be at the cusp of a 20–25% correction, aligning with a recent contraction in M2 liquidity.
Why Bitcoin May Be Due for a 25% Correction
Bitcoin custody firm Theya’s head of growth, Joe Consorti, has highlighted Bitcoin’s close tracking of the global M2 with an approximately 70-day lag since September 2023. In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Consorti warned of a potential BTC pullback by 25% as it continues to track the global M2,
“I don’t want to alarm anyone, but if this trend continues, Bitcoin could experience a 20-25% correction,” Consorti said.
His analysis sets M2 data 70 days forward compared to Bitcoin’s price, revealing a worrying trajectory as global liquidity tightens. Consorti’s observations come amid a rare dislocation from the M2 trend, which historically aligns with Bitcoin prices.
He attributes past divergences, such as during the 2022 FTX collapse, to market-specific events. In hindsight, on September 30, Consorti predicted Bitcoin could hit $90,000 by year-end if it continued mirroring M2 trends. That forecast played out accurately during BTC’s recent rally, bolstering his credibility.
Another proponent of this correlation, user Joseph Scioscia, reiterated that Bitcoin acts as a reliable proxy for M2 money supply trends. He advised investors to adopt a long-term dollar-cost-averaging (DCA) strategy, citing BTC’s historical resilience.
“Bitcoin is the best proxy for M2 money supply. The trend in M2 reveals the potential direction in BTC, especially with Bitcoin’s approximate 70-day lag behind M2. DCA in Bitcoin and adopt a long-term strategy,” Scioscia stated.
However, skepticism remains. An X user known as Spicez criticized the focus on short-term data. They argue that a broader five-year chart would offer more insight into Bitcoin’s behavior during election cycles and post-halving periods.
“It would be nice to see this chart for the last 5 years. It would give us an indication of BTC’s behavior towards M2 during the election cycle and how it behaved after the last halving. This 2-year chart doesn’t tell us much at all,” Spicez challenged.
Crucial Link Between M2 Money Supply and BTC
The global M2 supply measures the total liquidity in the economy, including checking accounts, savings accounts, and other liquid assets that can be quickly converted into cash. It has been a key driver for Bitcoin’s price movements.
Risk assets, including Bitcoin, typically correlate with rising liquidity. The relationship between Bitcoin’s price and M2 expansion reflects broader market sentiment and economic conditions.
A higher M2 expansion indicates a loose monetary policy and an increased money supply, which often boosts risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Historically, increases in M2 correspond with bullish trends for Bitcoin as liquidity flows into risk assets. Conversely, declines often signal impending corrections.
In a recent analysis, BeInCrypto echoed this link, suggesting that global liquidity could help Bitcoin reach $100,000. As reported, factors like the 2024 Bitcoin halving and broader macroeconomic recoveries often act as tailwinds for BTC’s price.
The rising interest in Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds), particularly from institutions like BlackRock, could counteract M2-related pressures. Structural buying from ETFs, coupled with corporate acquisitions, may provide a cushion against liquidity-driven sell-offs.
“It [Bitcoin] could buck this 2-month bout of M2 deflation thanks to structural ETF inflows + corporate buying pressure,” Consorti added.
While Bitcoin’s price faces potential headwinds from shrinking global liquidity, the market remains divided on its next move. Structural inflows and long-term adoption strategies may temper any downside. However, traders should brace for volatility as macroeconomic factors play out this week.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $94,395. BeInCrypto data shows it has been down 3.37% since the Tuesday session opened.
Disclaimer
In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
Bitcoin
Roger Ver Supporters Call for Clemency after Ulbricht’s Pardon
Elon Musk, who leads President Donald Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E), has committed to exploring the pardon of ‘Bitcoin Jesus’ Roger Ver.
It comes after US President Trump recently granted Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the Silk Road, clemency.
Elon Musk to “Inquire” on Roger Ver’s Pardon
Ross Ulbricht’s presidential pardon has ignited a spirited online campaign for the pardon of Roger Ver, another high-profile figure in the crypto arena. As BeInCrypto reported, Ulbricht’s full and unconditional pardon on Tuesday was widely celebrated. Trump called his previous sentence of two life terms “ridiculous.”
Amid the celebratory discussions, however, attention quickly shifted to Bitcoin Jesus. Ray Youssef, an executive at the crypto platform Noonesapp, was among the first to call for Ver’s release.
“Ross is free. A full unconditional pardon has been signed. Thank God. Don’t forget Roger Ver and all the builders who have been through hell,” Youssef said.
Roger Ver was a vocal proponent of Bitcoin Cash and an early adopter of cryptocurrency. He faced legal troubles over tax evasion allegations. Nine months ago, US authorities accused Ver of owing $48 million in taxes, allegedly stemming from his expatriation process.
Ver challenged these charges two months ago, asserting that he relied on expert advice to ensure compliance with the law. His defense also cited constitutional violations, including claims that privileged communications with his legal team were subpoenaed. Critics have argued that this represents overreach and a troubling precedent for attorney-client privilege.
“Please look into a pardon for Roger Ver. That privileged communications with his lawyers were subpoenaed is a terrible precedent for privacy and the ability to defend oneself,” said Naomi Brockwell, founder of Ludlow Institute.
They also say potentially exculpatory evidence was withheld during grand jury proceedings. Meanwhile. Angela McArdle, chair of the Libertarian National Committee, also expressed her support for Ver’s release. Following these calls, Elon Musk said he would inquire about it.
“Will inquire,” Musk tweeted.
Ver’s supporters argue that a pardon would correct a perceived injustice and reinforce the principles of privacy and due process. The parallels with Ulbricht’s case highlight the dangers of excessive sentencing and systemic government overreach. Taken together, these have strengthened the calls for Ver’s pardon.
Elon Musk’s acknowledgment of the issue has brought renewed attention to the case, potentially amplifying the push for clemency. Many hope that his platform, D.O.G.E, and influence will pressure leaders to address what they see as an unjust precedent. This is amidst a broader campaign for freedoms essential to innovation and prosperity in the cryptocurrency space.
“Roger Ver deserves a pardon to liberate him from the malicious prosecution he still faces–lawfare that threatens to take his freedom for 109 years for an exotic crime he *clearly* did not commit. Pardoning Roger is the strongest signal the President could send that Biden’s war on crypto is over. Please, President Trump, Free Roger Ver,” Bret Weinstein lamented.
Meanwhile, others see Bitcoin Jesus’ case as emblematic of the tension between individual liberties and state power.
“Also (preemptively) Roman Storm while you’re at it please Elon Musk. Publishing open-source privacy tools is an act of free speech — not an act in furtherance of a conspiracy. Whatever crimes committed with the software — developers should not be held vicariously liable for them,” another user added.
Disclaimer
In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
Bitcoin
Brian Armstrong’s Bold Bitcoin Prediction: Multi-Millions Ahead
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has expressed the belief that Bitcoin could eventually reach a price in the multi-million dollar range. This comes as BTC peaked at a new all-time high just hours before Donald Trump returned to the Oval Office for a second term.
Armstrong attributed Bitcoin’s impressive growth to increasing institutional interest and rising national-level adoption.
Coinbase CEO’s $1 million Bitcoin vision
Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Armstrong described Trump’s presidency as the “dawn of a new day” for cryptocurrency.
Although the first round of executive orders under Trump’s new term did not directly mention crypto, the CEO remained optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term potential.
“I think over time we’ll see Bitcoin get into the multiple millions price range,” Armstrong predicted.
He attributed this confidence to the growing demand from institutional players. For instance, on January 21, MicroStrategy purchased 11,000 BTC worth $1.1 billion in Bitcoin. This acquisition increased the company’s total reserves to a staggering 461,000 BTC.
Armstrong also pointed to Bitcoin ETFs as a significant factor contributing to the asset’s growth. Approved in January 2024, these ETFs have attracted substantial inflows. According to data from Farside Investors, Bitcoin ETFs have seen cumulative net inflows of $38.9 billion so far.
Additionally, the ETFs recorded four consecutive days of inflows, with the daily net inflow reaching $802.6 million as of January 21.
US Bitcoin Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: A Possibility?
Armstrong explained that Trump’s campaign promise to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve could further accelerate the adoption of cryptocurrency on a national scale. It could also act as a catalyst for other G20 nations, which have already shown interest, to follow suit.
“Bitcoin has a long way to go. It’s going to become the new gold standard, and crypto is much bigger than that too,” noted the Coinbase CEO.
Notably, Trump has already fulfilled one of his initial promises by pardoning Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht, effectively ending his life sentence. This move has sparked renewed hope that the President may deliver on other promises, including creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
“If Ross Ulbricht got the pardon, we are definitely getting the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,” CEO of Professional Capital Management, Anthony Pompliano, said in an X post.
Prediction platform Polymarket corroborated this sentiment, showing a 37% probability that Trump would create a Bitcoin reserve within his first 100 days in office. This was a noticeable recovery from the previous day’s low of 29%.
As these developments unfold, Bitcoin continues to soar. At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency was trading at $105,366. This marked a 3.0% increase over the past 24 hours.
With increasing institutional involvement, rising ETF inflows, and potential national-level initiatives, Armstrong’s multi-million-dollar Bitcoin prediction may not be far-fetched.
Disclaimer
In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
Bitcoin
Polymarket Under Fire in Thailand, But Bitcoin ETF is a Possibility
Thailand’s Technology Crime Suppression Division (TCSD) announced its proposal to block Polymarket, a global prediction market platform that facilitates betting on major world events using cryptocurrency.
Despite the country’s clampdown against Polymarket, it is making headway with Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds).
Polymarket Legal Woes Reach Thailand
Local media reported that Pol. Lt. Gen. Trairong Phiwpaen, commander of the TCSD, revealed the news at a press conference on January 14. He said that the platform’s operations violate Thailand’s gambling laws and pose risks to economic and social stability. According to Pol. Lt. Gen. Trairong, the rise of Web 3.0 and cryptocurrency has complicated enforcement efforts.
“The use of cryptocurrency for transactions increases the difficulty of inspection and tracking,” he stated.
He also emphasized the need for international cooperation in monitoring and shutting down such platforms. Against this backdrop, the TCSD has set up a specialized task force to collect data and collaborate with both domestic and international agencies to tackle illegal crypto-based activities effectively.
“This action is crucial to protecting the public and preventing the misuse of cryptocurrencies in illegal activities,” Lt. Gen. Trairong added.
Polymarket’s legal issues extend far beyond Thailand. In France, the platform has faced a gambling probe, resulting in restrictions on French traders. The situation escalated further when the FBI seized electronic devices from Polymarket’s CEO as part of an investigation. Similarly, Singapore has imposed stringent limitations on the platform, reflecting the global regulatory push to oversee crypto-based betting platforms.
Adding to the mounting pressure, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) subpoenaed Coinbase amid an ongoing investigation into Polymarket. These developments highlight the growing efforts by regulators worldwide to impose oversight on decentralized platforms that operate in legal gray areas.
Thailand Considers Approving Bitcoin ETFs
Despite its crackdown on Polymarket, Thailand remains a prominent player in the crypto space. According to Bloomberg, the country’s Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is reportedly considering allowing Thailand’s first Bitcoin ETF (exchange-traded funds).
“Like it or not, we have to move along with more adoption of cryptocurrencies worldwide,” Bloomberg reported, citing Thailand’s SEC Secretary-General Pornanong Budsaratragoon.
She noted that the regulator is exploring ways to offer more crypto investment options while ensuring proper investor protection. Thailand’s efforts to foster innovation in digital finance also include proposals for stablecoins backed by government bonds and a sandbox for Bitcoin transactions in tourism-centric regions like Phuket.
If approved, this move could bolster Thailand’s position as a digital assets hub in the Asia-Pacific region. Specifically, it could see it compete with crypto-friendly jurisdictions like Singapore and Hong Kong. Thailand’s regulatory tightening aims to strike a balance between fostering innovation and ensuring financial stability.
Disclaimer
In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
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