The crypto market will witness $3.98 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options contracts expire today. This massive expiration could impact short-term price action, especially as both assets have recently declined.

With Bitcoin options valued at $3.4 billion and Ethereum at $581.57 million, traders are bracing for potential volatility.

High-Stakes Crypto Options Expirations: What Traders Should Watch Today

According to Deribit data, Bitcoin options expiration involves 38,566 contracts, compared to 48,794 contracts last week. Similarly, Ethereum’s expiring options total 189,018 contracts, down from 294,380 contracts the previous week.

For Bitcoin, the expiring options have a maximum pain price of $79,500 and a put-to-call ratio of 0.85. This indicates a generally bullish sentiment despite the asset’s recent pullback. In comparison, their Ethereum counterparts have a maximum pain price of $3,000 and a put-to-call ratio of 0.92, reflecting a similar market outlook.

The maximum pain point is a crucial metric that often guides market behavior. It represents the price level at which most options expire worthless, inflicting maximum financial “pain” on traders.

Meanwhile, the put-to-call ratios below 1 for both Bitcoin and Ethereum suggest optimism in the market, with more traders betting on price increases. While the put options represent bets on price declines, call options point to bets on price increases. Taken together, this metric (put-to-call ratio) gauges market sentiment.

Traders and investors should brace for volatility, as options expirations often cause short-term price fluctuations, which create market uncertainty.

“The market could be very volatile, so trade with caution,” top Asian crypto influencer Wise Advice warned.

However, markets usually stabilize soon after as traders adapt to the new price environment. With today’s high-volume expiration, traders and investors can expect a similar outcome, potentially influencing future crypto market trends. As Bitcoin and Ethereum options near expiration, both assets could approach their respective strike prices.

This is a result of the Max Pain theory, which predicts that options prices will converge around the strike prices where the largest number of contracts — both calls and puts — expire worthless.

More Headwinds With Year-End Crypto Options Expiry

With markets still optimistic, the general sentiment is that Bitcoin’s upside potential remains viable, potentially reaching $100,000 before year-end. Nevertheless, bigger problems lie ahead, with many crypto options due for expiry at the end of the month and, potentially, even more (around $11.8 billion for BTC) on December 27. 

These dates are significant given Bitcoin bull runs tend to end precisely at the end of the year, between November and December. However, considering they only started between October and November, they have often extended into the early months of the new year. 

The expiration of these Bitcoin options at the end of the year may present as a major catalyst. It could influence immediate price action as well as the trajectory into the new year, 2025. With bulls looking at the year’s end expiration as a unique opportunity to foray into unchartered territory beyond $100,000, bears commit to limiting the price discovery to defend their positions.

“Looking at the options market, the market is clearly polarized and trading is very fragmented, with some of the larger traders heading for the sky to go long, while more traders are currently on the short side of the market,” Greeks.live shared.

Should the positioning battle intensify towards the end of the year, the fallout from these options expiring could ripple beyond December, setting new standards for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The latest data shows that Bitcoin’s trading value has dropped by 2.46% to $87,813. Similarly, Ethereum has fallen by 5.43%, now trading at $3,053.

The Royal Government of Bhutan recently sold 367 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $33.5 million, via Binance.

Data from Arkham Intelligence shows the transaction occurred on Thursday morning when Bitcoin’s price exceeded $90,000. Since then, Bitcoin has dropped over 3% to $87,000.

Bhutan Is Still the First-largest Government Bitcoin Holder 

This sale follows a $66 million Bitcoin transaction two weeks ago, executed when BTC reached $70,000. Combined, Bhutan has liquidated nearly $100 million worth of Bitcoin in the past month.

Arkham data shows that Bhutan still holds 12,206 Bitcoin, currently worth nearly $1.11 billion. These assets are managed by Druk Holding & Investments. The government appears to capitalize on price surges, selling portions of its holdings during market rallies.

Bhutan ranks as the fifth-largest government holder of Bitcoin, trailing the United States, China, the United Kingdom, and Ukraine. Unlike other nations, which often acquire Bitcoin through asset seizures, Bhutan mines its Bitcoin, leveraging its hydroelectric resources.

Governments Continue to Benefit From the Market Rally

Much like Bhutan, several governments are looking to reap economic benefits from their Bitcoin reserves in the current market rally. El Salvador is leveraging the Bitcoin surge to buy back its national debt. 

In 2021, El Salvador became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender. Since then, the country’s BTC reserve has grown to over $515 million. The country even recently raised $1.6 billion in funding to build the first Bitcoin City. 

Bitcoin has been rapidly progressing towards mainstream adoption throughout this year. The approval of Bitcoin ETFs back in January drove significant retail investment in the cryptocurrency. There’s also a prominent regulatory shift in the US after Donald Trump’s re-election. 

Earlier today, US Republican senator Lummis proposed a bill to sell the Federal Reserve’s gold and buy 1 million BTC to boost the government’s Bitcoin reserves. 

The state of Pennsylvania also introduced a bill to allocate 10% of state funds to buying BTC. The state proposes to use Bitcoin as a hedge to combat inflation and diversify its investments.

The Bitcoin price has soared to a new all-time high, driven by the bullish sentiment generated by the Donald Trump effect following the just-concluded US Presidential elections. The last time Trump won the US election in 2016, Bitcoin experienced a similar bullish reaction, surging to new ATHs around that time. 

The Trump Effect On The Bitcoin Price

Crypto analyst Mags has taken to X (formerly Twitter) to discuss Bitcoin’s bullish reaction to Trump’s recent Presidential victory in the US elections. According to the analyst, the last time Trump won the Presidential election in 2016, the Bitcoin price jumped 2,700% and peaked in just 400 days. 

This historic run not only solidified Bitcoin’s stance in the mainstream market but also highlighted the massive influence specific political changes have had on a cryptocurrency’s value. Based on Mag’s analysis, Trump’s return to the White House after winning the recent US Presidential elections could catalyze another bullish wave for Bitcoin.

The pioneer cryptocurrency is already seeing a massive price increase after Trump’s win. However, the analyst is projecting an even higher bullish outlook for Bitcoin. Mags has revealed that if history repeats itself in this cycle, then Bitcoin could hit a peak around December 2025 or sometime in Q4 of next year. 

In 2026, Bitcoin’s price was around $145 to $215. However, after its Trump-induced rally in 2018, the cryptocurrency skyrocketed to $16,000. Unlike this historic 2,700% surge, Mags has projected a less excessive price increase for Bitcoin this cycle. 

The analyst forecasts that if Bitcoin experiences a modest 240% run this cycle, the cryptocurrency could see its price hitting a peak of around $250,000. Mags highlighted an even higher price leap in his price chart, suggesting a potential rally towards the $420,000 mark. 

Following the analyst’s bullish prediction and analysis of Bitcoin’s future price movements, many crypto community members shared varying perspectives. One member disclosed that if Bitcoin could see half of the growth it experienced after the Trump win in 2016, the cryptocurrency’s next price top would be “huge.” This would represent a 1,350% increase, pushing Bitcoin’s price to approximately $1,215,000 from its current value. 

Another crypto member took a more realistic approach, revealing that a 2,400% rally for Bitcoin was impossible at its current level. However, a $250,000 price surge was a more plausible macro target for the cryptocurrency. 

BTC Tops Out At ATH Above $93,000

According to market intelligence platform Santiment, the Bitcoin price has topped out at a new ATH of around $93,490. This massive price increase has been attributed to the growing hype across various social media platforms following Trump’s win in the concluded US Presidential elections. 

Given how fast and strong Bitcoin’s bullish momentum is growing, Santiment has revealed that the most significant indicators hint at future price surges above $100,000. As of writing, the Bitcoin price has dropped slightly to $89,763 after increasing by approximately 20% this past week.