Market analysts have continued to deliberate on how the Bitcoin price could react to a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris victory in the US presidential elections. History indicates that Bitcoin’s future trajectory is bullish, irrespective of who wins the elections. 

How The Bitcoin Price Has Reacted To Previous Winners

The Bitcoin price has always hit a new all-time high (ATH) regardless of the winners in the past US presidential elections. In 2012, after Barack Obama won the elections, Bitcoin rallied and reached a new ATH of $1,200 in 2013. Its price then consolidated until the next election in 2016. 

The 2016 US presidential elections, which Donald Trump won, also sparked the beginning of another impressive rally for the Bitcoin price, which rose to a new ATH of $19,000 the following year. In 2020, following Joe Biden’s victory in the US presidential election, BTC rose to a new ATH of $69,000. 

The Bitcoin price rally after the US presidential elections is believed to be due to the market certainty that the election aftermath provides. Meanwhile, based on history, the BTC rally could begin as soon as December, with the flagship crypto hitting a new ATH as soon as January 2024. 

In 2016, the Bitcoin price rally began about three weeks before the election and went on to hit a new high in the first week of January 2017. In 2020, BTC had also consolidated for about six months before it began to rally from $11,000 just about three weeks before the US elections and then went on to reach a new high of $42,000 in January 2021.

Bitcoin’s recent price action also looks to be playing out the same way as BTC began rallying in mid-October and even came close to hitting its current ATH of $73,700 late last month. As such, there is the possibility that the flagship crypto could again retest this ATH and surpass it as soon as January 2024 or even before then. 

There Could Be Some Volatility In The Coming Days

In an X post, Crypto analyst Ali Martinez warned that the days following the last three US presidential elections have been volatile for the Bitcoin price. However, he added that the overall trend has stayed upward. 

Economist and crypto analyst Alex Krüger also warned about the potential pullback the Bitcoin price could face after the US elections. He claimed that there is a 45% chance that BTC could drop to as low as $65,000 if Kamala Harris wins the elections. 

Due to his pro-crypto stance, Donald Trump looks to be the most preferred candidate in the crypto community. As such, the market could initially react negatively to a Harris win while taking in Trump’s loss. 

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $68,000, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. 

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox, once the most significant player in Bitcoin trading, moved $2.2 billion worth of Bitcoin on Monday. The transaction marked one of its largest transactions since its infamous 2014 collapse.

Blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence identified the movement of 32,371 BTC, a transaction that has sent waves through the crypto market.

Mt. Gox Moves 32,371 Bitcoin

Arkham Intelligence’s analysis revealed that a prominent wallet address labeled “1FG2C…Rveoy,” moved 30,371 BTC, while an additional 2,000 BTC initially went to a Mt. Gox cold wallet before being moved to a different, unmarked address.

Spotonchain confirms the report, indicating that over the last four days, Mt. Gox has moved Bitcoin worth $2.22 billion. Among these tokens, 296 BTC valued at $20.13 million was moved to B2C2 and OKX. Such significant transfers are noteworthy because they often signal preparations for creditor distributions.

Read more: Top Crypto Bankruptcies: What You Need To Know

As BeInCrypto reported, Mt. Gox has already funneled smaller amounts to creditors using exchanges like Bitstamp and Kraken. The exchanges helped facilitate smooth transfers for those affected by the exchange’s collapse a decade ago. Meanwhile, analysts predict continued volatility, especially as the US election cycle adds a layer of uncertainty to global markets.

“The recent $2.2 billion Bitcoin movement and extended repayment timeline from Mt. Gox will likely inject some volatility into the market in the short term. With such a large amount of Bitcoin potentially entering circulation, there’s bound to be short-term price swings as recipients decide whether to hold or sell,” Peter Watson, Chief Market Officer at Velar, told BeInCrypto.  

Indeed, following the transfer, Bitcoin prices momentarily dipped below $68,000 during Asian market trading, briefly rattling investor confidence. However, the asset quickly rebounded to trade for $68,810 as of writing.

However, Watson says the impact may be less severe than some fear, especially as many creditors have had years to consider their strategies. Further, he observes that this could benefit market confidence.

“For many, seeing the Mt. Gox saga finally come to a close may reinforce the belief that Bitcoin is better equipped for sustained growth and stability.. ultimately strengthening confidence in its future,”  Watson added.

An Ongoing Saga of Repayment and Recovery

The transfer occurred just a week after Mt. Gox extended its repayment deadline for creditors by another year, much to their frustration. The decision was partly due to the logistical and technical hurdles of coordinating payments to thousands of creditors.

“Many rehabilitation creditors still have not received their repayments because they have not completed the necessary procedures for receiving repayments. Additionally, a considerable number of rehabilitation creditors have not received their repayments due to various reasons, such as issues arising during the repayments process,” Mt. Gox explained.

This process has been an agonizing journey for creditors, filled with delays, legal complications, and financial uncertainty. The repayment saga continues, fueling concerns over market volatility. However, analysts suggest that the postponement could be delaying a potential sell-off.

“$4 billion payment selling pressure now shifted to 2025,” one user shared on X.

Read more: Who Owns the Most Bitcoin in 2024?

According to data on Arkham, Mt. Gox still holds 44,378 BTC, which is valued at approximately $3.05 billion. As the market continues to advance, events like Mt. Gox’s transfers serve as reminders of the industry’s turbulent past. For creditors, however, the wait remains, extending a wait that has already spanned nearly a decade.

Crypto investment inflows surged to $2.17 billion last week, reaching an unprecedented $29.2 billion in year-to-date inflows. This influx elevated the total assets under management (AUM) in digital assets to over $100 billion, a level previously reached only in June 2024.

The rise comes amid renewed interest in Bitcoin, which captured the majority of these investments, with trading volumes up by 67% to $19.2 billion. This activity represented a significant 35% of Bitcoin’s trading volume on trusted exchanges.

Inflows To Digital Asset Investment Products Reach $2.2 Billion

The latest CoinShares report attributes recent crypto inflows to the upcoming US elections on November 5. Anticipation of a potential Republican victory appears to be fueling interesthttps://beincrypto.com/donald-trump-to-overhaul-us-crypto-rules/, as the GOP is often viewed as more favorable toward relaxed regulations on digital assets.

“We believe euphoria around the prospect of a Republican victory was the likely reason for these inflows as they were in the first few days of last week, as polls have turned, we saw minor outflows on Friday, highlighting how sensitive Bitcoin is to the US elections at present,” the report read.

Read more: How To Buy Bitcoin (BTC) and Everything You Need To Know

Bitcoin dominated last week’s inflows, with $2.15 billion reflecting investor confidence. A minor yet notable $8.9 million also flowed into short-Bitcoin products, hinting at some hedging among investors amidst Bitcoin’s strong price movement.

Meanwhile, Ethereum saw modest inflows totaling $9.5 million, displaying a marked difference in sentiment compared to Bitcoin and Solana, which received $5.7 million. Other altcoins, including Polkadot and Arbitrum, saw smaller investments, with $670,000 and $200,000 respectively.

This development is unsurprising given how the run-up to the US elections has catalyzed substantial interest in digital assets over the past few weeks. As BeInCrypto reported, October already saw inflows reaching $901 million in the last week after recording up to $2.2 billion in positive flows the week prior and $407 million in the first week of October.  

During these weeks, CoinShares’ James Butterfill credited the positive flows to a Republican victory potentially favoring regulatory policies for digital assets.

Fate of Crypto Investment Inflows After US Elections

The record-breaking inflows coincide with a broader surge in US-based investments in crypto, as American investors account for the bulk of this year’s $29.2 billion inflow. Meanwhile, Germany saw a modest $5.1 million in new investments. This reflects Europe’s more conservative engagement with crypto amid regulatory uncertainties.

While Bitcoin remains the primary beneficiary of these investments, US elections could further intensify volatility in the crypto market this week. Investors are monitoring key battleground states, where recent polls indicate a favorable swing for Republicans. This has raised speculation of a shift in Congress that could bring a friendlier stance on crypto.

Political analysts note that GOP control of Congress might ease regulatory pressures on digital assets. This could enhance investor confidence and attract further inflows into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the days following the elections. Nevertheless, others like Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong say a more “pro-crypto Congress” is likely to emerge regardless of the election’s outcome.

The election results will likely signal the short-term direction for crypto investments. A Republican win could boost inflows, potentially sparking a new Bitcoin rally, while a Democratic victory might dampen expectations if stricter regulations are anticipated.

Read More: What is Polymarket? A Guide to The Popular Prediction Market

With election day approaching, crypto markets are expected to stay volatile, as Bitcoin and other digital assets respond to shifts in polling data and policy outlooks.

“Going to be an exciting week ahead, that’s one thing that’s for certain. Be careful on leverage, recommend not touching it at all this week. You’re likely to just get chopped up,” crypto analyst Daan Crypto warned.