Metaplanet, the Japanese company that has established itself as a prominent corporate adopter of Bitcoin, is starting to experience modest losses on its investments. 

This comes as the cryptocurrency’s price has fallen to its lowest levels in over three months.

Over the past week, Bitcoin has been undergoing a sharp downturn, with weekly losses extending to 18.2%. In fact, today, its price dropped to intra-day lows below $80,000, marking price levels last seen in November 2024.

At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $80,462 after a 6.5% decrease in the past 24 hours. The broader crypto market was also down, with the total market capitalization depreciating by 7.7%.

For Metaplanet, which has an average cost of $81,458 per Bitcoin, these fluctuations spell trouble. According to the latest data from BitcoinTreasuries, Metaplanet is grappling with a 2.0% loss on its Bitcoin investments.

The company currently holds 2,235 BTC, valued at $179.54 million. This represents a substantial 20.9% of the firm’s total market capitalization.

The financial challenges extend beyond its cryptocurrency holdings. Metaplanet’s stock has also taken a notable hit. 

“Metaplanet (3350 JP) is now down 54% since the peak,” BitMex Research noted.

However, BitMex highlighted that Metaplanet’s stock price is still significantly higher than the value of the Bitcoin it holds. Meanwhile, according to Yahoo Finance, Metaplanet shares declined 17.4% today, closing at ¥3,310 (approximately $22).

Despite the dip, Metaplanet has remained steadfast in its commitment to Bitcoin. On February 27, the company issued ¥2 billion (approximately $13.3 million) in zero-interest bonds to purchase Bitcoin. This marked its seventh bond issuance for the same purpose. These bonds are scheduled for redemption on August 26, at face value. 

The move is in line with Metaplanet’s 2025 roadmap. The company aims to accumulate 10,000 Bitcoins by the end of the year.

“The market has recognized Metaplanet as Tokyo’s preeminent Bitcoin company, and we are seizing this momentum to solidify our position as a global leader. Our vision is to lead the Bitcoin renaissance in Japan and emerge as one of the largest corporate Bitcoin holders globally. This plan is our commitment to that future,” Metaplanet’s CEO Simon Gerovich said.

Metaplanet’s ambitious strategy extends beyond 2025, with a target of accumulating 21,000 Bitcoins by the end of 2026. The company calls it the “21 Million Plan.”

This initiative involves the issuance of 21 million shares through moving strike warrants. It represents Asia’s largest-ever equity capital raise for Bitcoin, with a funding target of ¥116.65 billion ($785 million).

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has hit a three-month low, reversing its post-election gains following Donald Trump’s victory.

While initial market sentiment blamed the downturn on US President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the recent Bybit hack, analysts are now pointing to a more structural cause.

Why Bitcoin Is Crashing, Analyst Offers New Perspective

Crypto analyst Kyle Chasse ascribes the ongoing crypto market crash to unwinding the cash and carry trade that has been suppressing BTC’s price for months. He explains that hedge funds have exploited a low-risk arbitrage trade involving Bitcoin spot ETFs (exchange-traded funds) and CME futures.

“Bitcoin is crashing. Wondering why? The cash & carry trade that’s been suppressing BTC’s price is now unwinding,” he stated.

The strategy involved buying Bitcoin spot ETFs such as those from BlackRock (IBIT) and Fidelity (FBTC). It also involved shorting BTC futures on the CME and farming the spread for an annualized return of approximately 5.68%.

According to the analyst, some funds used leverage to boost double-digit returns. However, this trade is now collapsing, causing massive liquidity withdrawals from the market and sending Bitcoin’s price into free fall.

The collapse of the cash and carry trade has led to over $1.9 billion in Bitcoin sold in the past week. This marks a significant decline in CME open interest as hedge funds unwind positions. It has also caused a double-digit percentage drop in Bitcoin’s price within days.

According to Chasse, hedge funds never bet on Bitcoin’s long-term price appreciation. Instead, they were farming a risk-free yield using arbitrage. Now that the trade is dead, they are rapidly pulling liquidity, intensifying Bitcoin’s sell-off.

“Why is this happening? Because hedge funds don’t care about Bitcoin. They weren’t betting on BTC mooning. They were farming low-risk yield. Now that the trade is dead, they’re pulling liquidity—leaving the market in free fall,” the analyst added.

Before the cash and carry unwind was identified, many traders blamed Trump’s aggressive tariffs. More recently, tariffs against the European Union sparked market fears. The recent Bybit hack also contributed to soured investor sentiment.

While Bitcoin remains under pressure, Kyle Chasse sees a path forward. More cash and carry unwinding is expected, meaning forced selling will continue until all hedge fund positions are cleared. Volatility will likely increase as leveraged positions get liquidated, leading to sharp swings in Bitcoin’s price.

If the analyst’s perspective is true, Bitcoin would need real, long-term holders to step in and absorb the selling pressure. According to technical analysis, Bitcoin’s next target could be around $70,000, a key support level that might stabilize the market.

Around this level, 6.76 million addresses hold approximately 2.64 million BTC tokens acquired at an average price of $65,296. Therefore, this zone may offer significant support for Bitcoin price, as holders prevent further losses.

The analyst acknowledges that ETF-driven demand was partly real but heavily influenced by arbitrage players looking for quick profits. For now, the market is undergoing a painful but necessary reset. With it, traders and investors should brace for volatility in what could lay the groundwork for Bitcoin’s next directional bias.

Today, approximately $5.79 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options are due to expire.

Market watchers are particularly attentive to this event due to its potential to influence short-term trends through the volume of contracts and their notional value. Examining the put-to-call ratios and maximum pain points can provide insights into traders’ expectations and possible market directions.

Insights on Today’s Expiring Bitcoin and Ethereum Options

The notional value of today’s expiring BTC options is $4.68 billion. According to Deribit’s data, these 58,633 expiring Bitcoin options have a put-to-call ratio 0.71. This ratio suggests a prevalence of purchase options (calls) over sales options (puts).

The data also reveals that the maximum pain point for these expiring options is $96,000. The maximum pain point is the price at which the asset will cause the greatest number of holders’ financial losses.

In addition to Bitcoin options, 527,277 Ethereum options contracts are set to expire today. These expiring options have a notional value of $1.109 billion, a put-to-call ratio of 0.52, and a maximum pain point of $3,000.

The number of today’s expiring options is significantly higher than last week. BeInCrypto reported that last week’s options expiry amounted to $2.04 billion, comprising 16,561 BTC and 153,608 ETH contracts.

This notable difference comes as this week’s expiring options are for the month. Notably, many institutional traders and funds trade options monthly rather than weekly. Additionally, large funds and market makers often roll over or close their positions at the end of the month to adjust portfolios.

Market makers and traders also focus on monthly expiries because they provide better liquidity and tighter spreads as they accumulate more open interest over time than weekly expiries.

Ahead of the expiration, options trading tool provider Greeks.live shared its insights into the options market. It observed the overall market sentiment is predominantly bearish, with significant concern about further downside potential.

“Overall Market Sentiment: The group is predominantly bearish with traders watching $82,000 as a critical support level that must hold to maintain the HTF (high timeframe) trend. There is significant concern about the continued downside, with many members discussing the rapid 17% decline over three days and debating whether recent selling is controlled or indicative of a broader market shift,” read the post.

Implication of Today’s Options Expiry on BTC and ETH Prices

Against this backdrop, some traders are reportedly repositioning to call ratio spreads as a more defensive strategy. This move is based on the belief that after this drawdown, Bitcoin price action may become choppy, with the potential for a retest of $88,000 before determining further direction.

Deribit says traders are bracing for more volatility, hedging against declining crypto prices to levels last seen just after election day. The dampened outlook comes following US President Donald Trump’s tariffs against Mexico, Canada, China, and Europe.

As BeInCrypto reported, Trump’s surprise announcement of EU tariffs devastated Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. It remains to be seen how Trump’s tariffs could affect crypto and Bitcoin’s potential in the longer term.

For now, however, the max pain prices for both Bitcoin and Ethereum are well above their respective market values. As of this writing, Bitcoin traded for $79,890, whereas ETH exchanged hands for $2,137.

As the max pain price is well above the spot price, this could incentivize options sellers to push Bitcoin and Ethereum prices higher closer to the pain level.

“With the end of the month approaching, BTC options traders should take note: Max Pain for Feb 28 sits at $98,000, with a massive $5 billion notional value. This means the highest open interest is clustered here, incentivizing market makers to keep BTC close to this price. Expect increased volatility and potential price gravitation toward this level,” altcoin options exchange PowerTrade stated.