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In the usual style of the high market uncertainty and volatility associated with the current bull cycle, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell to around $77,000 in the past week before rising by over 10% to successfully reclaim the $85,000 price zone.

Despite this price recovery, the heavy market corrections in recent weeks have drawn intense doubts about the viability of the current bull run. Interestingly, on-chain analytics firm IntoTheBlock believes the market peak may have yet to occur based on historical data.

Bitcoin Halving Cycles Reveal Diminishing Returns But Market Could Peak By 150%

In its most recent weekly newsletter, IntoTheBlock analysts have explored historical metrics to evaluate the current status of the Bitcoin market. Notably, this insightful report indicates that BTC is still far from its projected returns based on previous cycles, suggesting the crypto bull run is potentially active.

According to IntoTheBlock, Bitcoin has continuously experienced a decline in post-halving returns with each subsequent cycle yielding lower peak gains compared to its predecessors. The halving is a crucial blockchain event during the block reward for Bitcoin miners is reduced by half, thereby slowing the release of new tokens to maintain scarcity.

The halving occurs every four years and is a major checkpoint in the market cycle. Following the first halving in November 2012, the Bitcoin market recorded staggering market gains peaking at around 6,000% – 8,000% before finding stability at around 1,600% – 4,000%.

The market surge post-second halving was notably still strong reaching around 2,000% and settling at 600%. After the third halving in May 2020, BTC experienced some modest gains not more than 600%.

Clearly, the BTC market displays a diminishing returns pattern following successive halving, which suggests the premier cryptocurrency’s growth potential tends to reduce alongside price growth. This trend is characteristic of a market reaching maturation as Bitcoin now ranks as the eighth largest asset in the world.

Presently, the current Bitcoin cycle has only reached peak gains of 60% post-halving. While this fourth cycle is expected to maintain the pattern of diminishing returns, IntoTheBlock analysts are projecting maximum market gains between 50%-150%, indicating more room for price growth at the moment.

BTC Price Peak To Come In H2 2025?

According to more analysis from IntoTheBlock, Bitcoin is shown to typically attain its market peak 12-18 months post-halving. Following this pattern, the premier cryptocurrency is expected to experience some significant appreciation between mid-2025 to late 2025.

However, it is worth noting that market conditions are currently different especially considering the growth of institutional interest and the recent tariff policies of the US government. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $84,391, reflecting a decline of 1.64% in the past seven days.

Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview

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After a torrid start to the week, the price of Bitcoin appears to be finally stabilizing and building some bullish momentum. On Friday, March 14, the flagship cryptocurrency demonstrated this growing momentum, as it steadily climbed the charts and briefly crossed the $85,000 mark to close the week.

Interestingly, the BTC open interest (OI) has also been moving in a similar direction as the price over the past few days. With the rising open interest, the pressing question that demands a quick answer is — is the Bitcoin bull run back on track?

BTC Open Interest Jumps To $27.9 Billion — What Does It Mean?

In a new post on the X platform, a CryptoQuant community analyst with the pseudonym Maartunn revealed that the Bitcoin open interest is on the rise. For context, the open interest metric tracks the total amount of money poured into BTC derivatives at any given time. 

According to data from CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin OI witnessed a notable upswing on Friday, rising to $27.9 billion. Maartunn noted that this significant move marked an over 13% jump (more than $3.3 billion) from the metric’s most recent low.

Source: @JA_Maartun

Typically, an increase in the Bitcoin open interest suggests that investors are opening up new positions in the futures and options market. It implies that investors are pouring money into BTC derivatives at the time. Conversely, a falling OI value indicates that derivatives traders are leaving their positions or getting liquidated in the market.

A growing open interest could be a healthy bullish sign for the premier cryptocurrency — especially if historical precedence is anything to go by. The influx of fresh capital into the market suggests surging investor sentiment (typically confidence) or speculation on the Bitcoin price trajectory.

As more investors flood the derivatives market and continue to bet on BTC’s price, the rising open interest could further heighten volatility in the Bitcoin market. Increased volatility signals that the flagship cryptocurrency could potentially experience large price movements soon.

What Next For Bitcoin Price?

BTC’s price does appear to be gearing for a significant move to the upside. Chartered Market Technician Tony Severino shared on the X platform that the market leader could make a run to around $95,000 over the next few days.

Source: @tonythebullBTC

As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin stands at around $84,500, reflecting an almost 5% increase in the past 24 hours.

The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Featured image created by DALL-E, chart from TradingView

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A Democrat lawmaker has opposed US President Donald Trump’s plan to increase the government’s Bitcoin holdings by creating a strategic reserve.

House Rep. Gerald E. Connolly of Virginia urged the US Department of the Treasury to halt the proposed Bitcoin reserve, suggesting that Trump has a conflict of interest in pushing for it.

Lawmaker: Stop BTC Reserve

Connolly wrote a letter to US Department of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urging the Secretary to “cease all attempts” that push for the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, claiming that it will only enrich Trump and his allies.

“The creation of a strategic cryptocurrency reserve is poised to enrich the President and his closest allies at the expense of American taxpayers,” Connolly said. “I urge you to cease all plans to create a strategic cryptocurrency reserve.”

The Virginia lawmaker criticized the cryptocurrency proposal because only Trump and his donors will benefit from it.

Rep. Connolly urges U.S. Treasury to scrap plans for strategic crypto reserve

Virginia Rep. Gerry Connolly sent a letter to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on March 13, urging the department to halt plans for establishing a strategic crypto reserve. According to a press…

— CoinNess Global (@CoinnessGL) March 14, 2025

Major Crypto Holders

Connolly said that Trump, his family, and his closest allies are owners of cryptocurrencies, citing that the President’s family owned The Trump Organization, which maintains “significant ownership in World Liberty Financial.”

The lawmaker described it as a cryptocurrency venture that “aspires to be a sort of digital asset bank, where customers will be encouraged to borrow, lend and invest in digital coins” with even the President claiming World Liberty Financial as “the future of finance.”

He added that the President’s sons, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., have advocated several cryptocurrencies, pointing out the connection between the Trump family and cryptocurrencies.  

The Democrat legislator mentioned that the American President even introduced a new meme coin in January called TRUMP, saying, “Entities related to President Trump have reportedly made as much as $100 million in trading fees alone for this venture, which has been called his “most lucrative get-rich scheme yet.”

He noted that a crypto strategic reserve has “no discernible benefit to the American people.”

Unsound Fiscal Policy?

Connolly argued that the Bitcoin reserve is an “unsound fiscal policy” because the selection of winning currencies will be done through social media, adding that it will only waste “taxpayer dollars on a plan that one federal reserve official described as ‘the dumbest idea’ ever.”

“The United States has historically, through acts of Congress, created reserves of certain commodities of strategic value, such as petroleum, particularly during times of economic crisis. However, no strategic need has arisen that would necessitate investment in the volatile and speculative cryptocurrency market,” the lawmaker said.

He described the Bitcoin reserve as “nothing more than a highly speculative taxpayer-backed hedge,” saying that if crypto crashes, “the State will deploy this fund to rescue it.”

Featured image from The Independent, chart from TradingView

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.