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The Bitcoin and crypto markets suffered severe price downturns at the beginning of the week, with the premier cryptocurrency falling to a low of $76,500. Interestingly, the digital assets market was not alone in the misery, as the United States equities market also lost a significant portion of its value to kick off the week.

Several experts have weighed in on this widespread market downturn triggered by the economic uncertainty, as United States President Donald Trump continues to roll out trade tariffs at will. Prominent crypto pundit Burak Kesmeci is one of the latest to comment on this scenario, predicting which market will recover first.

BTC And ETH Exhibit High Correlation With US Stock Market

In a March 15 post on the X platform, Kesmeci explained why it is almost impossible for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to recover before the US traditional markets. The reasoning behind the expert’s assertion is based on the high correlation between cryptocurrency and the US stock market.

Proving this direct relationship, Kesmeci revealed Bitcoin’s and Ethereum’s correlation with the S&P 500 index (regarded as the best gauge of US equities market performance) stands at 0.85 and 0.95, respectively. As highlighted in the chart below, the two largest cryptocurrencies also exhibit a high correlation with other US stock market indices, including the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) Average and Russell 2000.

Source: @burak_kesmeci/X

According to Kesmeci, this trend suggests that investors view digital assets, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum, in a similar light as stocks in the United States. This explains why the crypto market experiences profound selling pressure whenever Trump announces new trade tariffs.

Contrarily, an opposite trend can be seen with gold, which has reached a new high in recent days. Kesmeci noted that the VIX (fear) index is strongly negatively correlated with Bitcoin, which explains why the flagship cryptocurrency is falling as the former is rising.

Finally, the analyst revealed that the DJI and S&P 500 indices are below the 200-day simple moving average (used for long-term trend tracking) for the first time since October 2023. According to Kesmeci, these US stock market indices would need to move above the SMA200 again before the crypto market would recover.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin stands at around $84,050, reflecting a 0.3% increase in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the market leader is down by more than 2% in the past week.

The price of BTC hovering around $84,000 on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

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With over $10 billion in open interest wiped out in just two months, the Bitcoin landscape has experienced a significant reboot, and analysts are predicting that the price of the flagship crypto will soon recover.

The abrupt change has prompted discussions regarding the cryptocurrency’s future price trajectory. While some market experts see this as an opportunity for a fresh start, others caution that there is still a heavy degree of uncertainty.

Bitcoin Open Interest Down

Reports show that Bitcoin’s open interest hit a peak of $33 billion on January 17. However, by early March, more than $10 billion had been wiped out. This massive liquidation wave was fueled by various factors, including widespread political noise and broader market conditions.

The $BTC market is deleveraging : A Natural Reset ?

On January 17th, Bitcoin’s open interest reached an all-time high of over $33B, indicating that leverage in the market had never been this high.

Following the recent panic triggered by political instability linked to… pic.twitter.com/KPLQ63SHx3

— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) March 16, 2025

The figure shows that the open interest of Bitcoin’s 90-day futures was down by 14% from February 20 to March 4. As a result of the forced withdrawal of many traders, the market had to change gears. Others worry that more volatility might come next, while others see this as a positive adjustment.

Traders Watching For Signs Of Stability

Traders are now looking for stability since open interest has dropped significantly. Some people claim that right now the market is more suited for long-term expansion. Others remain cautious, seeing that more market swings could come before Bitcoin sets up a strong foundation.

Caution Required

The founder of Into The Cryptoverse, Benjamin Cowen, cautions that the current bull cycle may be in danger if prices fall below the lower $70,000s. He suggests that a close in the low $60,000s could be a warning that the bull market is coming to an end, drawing comparisons to the 2017 cycle. On the other hand, keeping prices over $70,000–$73,000 would protect the market’s structure.

At the moment, Bitcoin is staying around $82,900. Cowen says that a macro lower high could happen later this year if the price falls below key support levels. This would mean that the picture for the market is more bearish by Q3. If past trends are accurate, though, this phase of consolidation could lead to another big rise in the next few months.

Optimism In The Air

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s long-term prognosis remains hopeful. According to Josh Mandell, a well-known analyst and millionaire who has over 79,000 followers on X, if the price of Bitcoin closes above $84,000 at the end of the month, it might reach $100,000.

Bitcoin’s Price Action Remains Uncertain

Recent liquidations highlight how quickly things can change, and the Bitcoin market has seen sharp price swings in the past. While some investors see this as a chance to get assets at lowered rates, others would rather see how the market responds.

For now, everything is a blend of uncertainty and optimism — a wait-and-see atmosphere. As they say, anything can happen in the cryptoverse.

Featured image from Gemini Imagen, chart from TradingView

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In the usual style of the high market uncertainty and volatility associated with the current bull cycle, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell to around $77,000 in the past week before rising by over 10% to successfully reclaim the $85,000 price zone.

Despite this price recovery, the heavy market corrections in recent weeks have drawn intense doubts about the viability of the current bull run. Interestingly, on-chain analytics firm IntoTheBlock believes the market peak may have yet to occur based on historical data.

Bitcoin Halving Cycles Reveal Diminishing Returns But Market Could Peak By 150%

In its most recent weekly newsletter, IntoTheBlock analysts have explored historical metrics to evaluate the current status of the Bitcoin market. Notably, this insightful report indicates that BTC is still far from its projected returns based on previous cycles, suggesting the crypto bull run is potentially active.

According to IntoTheBlock, Bitcoin has continuously experienced a decline in post-halving returns with each subsequent cycle yielding lower peak gains compared to its predecessors. The halving is a crucial blockchain event during the block reward for Bitcoin miners is reduced by half, thereby slowing the release of new tokens to maintain scarcity.

The halving occurs every four years and is a major checkpoint in the market cycle. Following the first halving in November 2012, the Bitcoin market recorded staggering market gains peaking at around 6,000% – 8,000% before finding stability at around 1,600% – 4,000%.

The market surge post-second halving was notably still strong reaching around 2,000% and settling at 600%. After the third halving in May 2020, BTC experienced some modest gains not more than 600%.

Clearly, the BTC market displays a diminishing returns pattern following successive halving, which suggests the premier cryptocurrency’s growth potential tends to reduce alongside price growth. This trend is characteristic of a market reaching maturation as Bitcoin now ranks as the eighth largest asset in the world.

Presently, the current Bitcoin cycle has only reached peak gains of 60% post-halving. While this fourth cycle is expected to maintain the pattern of diminishing returns, IntoTheBlock analysts are projecting maximum market gains between 50%-150%, indicating more room for price growth at the moment.

BTC Price Peak To Come In H2 2025?

According to more analysis from IntoTheBlock, Bitcoin is shown to typically attain its market peak 12-18 months post-halving. Following this pattern, the premier cryptocurrency is expected to experience some significant appreciation between mid-2025 to late 2025.

However, it is worth noting that market conditions are currently different especially considering the growth of institutional interest and the recent tariff policies of the US government. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $84,391, reflecting a decline of 1.64% in the past seven days.

Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.