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Bitcoin: Analyzing Divergence In Investor Behavior – Who’s Buying And Selling BTC?

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The Bitcoin price started the week on a strong footing, jumping back above $90,000 following the announcement of a strategic crypto reserve by US President Donald Trump. However, the flagship cryptocurrency barely sustained this momentum, dropping back beneath the $90,000 level before midweek.

The recent market uncertainty is mirrored in the Bitcoin action, as the price has moved mostly sideways (after the initial pump) within the $82,000 – $92,000 range. The question now is — who is behind the constant price retracement and consolidation? 

Short-Term Sell-Offs Meet Long-Term Confidence: Analyst

In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, an analyst with the pseudonym ShayanBTC discussed the divergence in investor behavior while using on-chain data to evaluate current market sentiment. The relevant on-chain indicator here is the Spent Output Age Bands (SOAB) metric, which sorts spent coins into categories depending on their age and as a proportion of total coins moved.

ShayanBTC specifically analyzed the bags of investors between the 1-week and 6-month cohorts (short-term holders) using the Spent Output Age Bands. Data from CryptoQuant shows that the selling activity of short-term investors drove the recent Bitcoin downturn. 

These investors, known for their rapid reactions to market fluctuations, have been actively depositing BTC onto exchanges — which can be associated with selling pressure. Considering the sensitive nature of short-term holders to market sentiment and technical resistance levels, their selling behavior aligns with Bitcoin’s recent struggle to sustain any bullish momentum.

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Source: CryptoQuant

On the other hand, long-term investors (those holding BTC for more than 6 months) have shown no signs of capitulation. While some level of profit-taking can be seen among this group of Bitcoin holders, it seems to be rather gradual and consistent with the behavior seen in healthy bull markets rather than mass liquidations.

The activity of long-term Bitcoin investors suggests that they anticipate future price appreciation before offloading larger portions of their holdings, thereby reducing the BTC supply in the open market. ShayanBTC added that “if sufficient demand enters the market, this supply shrinkage could fuel further price appreciation.”

Interestingly, the latest on-chain data shows that Bitcoin’s long-term investors are not the only market participants refraining from offloading their assets. Crypto pundit Ali Martinez revealed in a post on X that the BTC miners have recorded zero selling activity since February 28.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the premier cryptocurrency is valued at around $86,200, reflecting a mere 0.5% price decline in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin

The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

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Bitcoin Holders are More Profitable Than Ethereum Since 2023

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New data from Glassnode suggests that Bitcoin’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) has been higher than Ethereum’s for 812 consecutive days. This means that the average BTC investor has accumulated much larger profits than their ETH counterpart since 2023.

Due to recent losses, Ethereum’s MVRV actually fell below 1.0, suggesting that the average investor has lost money. It may be undervalued and well-posed for a resurgence, but this will take time.

Bitcoin vs Ethereum: Which is More Profitable?

Despite a few recent market turmoils, the price of Bitcoin is doing reasonably well right now. Although much of its gains since Trump’s election have been wiped out, its pre-election value spent most of 2024 at a shelf near its previous all-time high.

According to new data from Glassnode, Bitcoin’s investor profitability is far above Ethereum’s.

“Since November 2022 (FTX collapse), Bitcoin’s realized cap has grown by $468 billion (+117%), while Ethereum’s increased by just $61 billion (+32%). Bitcoin investors have held consistently larger unrealized profits than #Ethereum holders since January 2023. BTC investor profitability has exceeded ETH for 812 consecutive days – an all-time record,” Glassnode said.

Glassnode came to these conclusions by analyzing both tokens’ MVRV and their ratio of market value to realized value. This metric compares the listed price of Bitcoin and Ethereum to the actual price at which these tokens were most recently traded.

Despite maintaining similar MVRVs for a prolonged period, Bitcoin is plowing well ahead today:

Bitcoin and Ethereum MVRV
Bitcoin and Ethereum MVRV. Source: Glassnode

While Bitcoin has been more volatile than Ethereum, the altcoin has seen a much smaller uptick during bullish cycles. For instance, in the latest bull run between October and December 2024, Bitcoin surged by nearly 70%.

In the same period, Ethereum’s price increase was less than 50%. Yet, if we look at the drop during the current market downturn, BTC lost 3% in the first week of April, while ETH lost over 15%.

Meanwhile, the altcoin’s investor sentiment is also dropping. Major whales who HODL’ed the token for many years are now selling their ETH holdings.

Also, the average Bitcoin holder enjoys an MVRV of around 2.0, meaning that they have huge unrealized gains. Most of their counterparts have an MVRV below 1.0, signifying that they have lost money. These data points are concerning, especially for the median ETH holder.

However, there’s a silver lining. Ethereum recently fell to a yearly low, but there’s also a strong uptick of new investors. New developments, like the SEC approving ETH ETF options trading, could spur a recovery.

In other words, Ethereum may be highly undervalued and, therefore, an attractive investment.

Still, for the time being, Bitcoin holders are in a much better position than ETH holders. Ethereum is still the second-largest cryptoasset by market cap, and it can always make a comeback. This will almost certainly pose a significant challenge.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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This is Why Hoskinson Thinks Bitcoin Will Hit $250,000 in 2025

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Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson believes that Bitcoin can reach $250,000 by the end of the year. He thinks that tariffs are already priced in and future annoucements will be a ‘dud’ for the crypto market.

In the short term, he claimed that crypto markets will stall for three to five months as TradFi finds a new normal. Afterward, Bitcoin’s ability to transcend borders will give it a leg up over trade organizations and legacy banks.

Why Is Hoskinson Betting on Bitcoin?

The threat of Trump’s tariffs has caused a lot of turmoil in the crypto markets lately. The crypto market was always volatile, but the on-and-off tariffs introduced a new level of chaotic volatility for digital assets.

However, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson is staking out a bold claim, stating that Bitcoin could rise to $250,000:

“Crypto benefits in the long term. Your only option for globalization is crypto. If you want to business with countries the US, Russia, [or] China doesn’t like… you can no longer do that through trade organizations or legacy banks. You can only do that through crypto. I think Bitcoin will be over $250,000 by the end of this year or next year,” Hoskinson predicted.

Essentially, Hoskinson’s bullish case for Bitcoin’s price gains is tied to the industry’s roots, which are decentralization and anonymity. Bitcoin was created in the aftermath of the 2008 crash, and it was intended to circumvent the often unfair overreach of traditional financial institutions.

If Trump’s tariffs lead to a breakdown in the global system of trade, Bitcoin could fill that void.

Naturally, Bitcoin already has a major use case in helping countries avoid US sanctions, but that doesn’t represent the entirety of Hoskinson’s argument. Ironically, in the short term, he believes that the tariffs will be a “dud.”

The Cardano founder thinks that markets will adjust to the new state of affairs, pouring cheap money into crypto. US stablecoin regulation will also help this process.

However, these short-term gains are just one piece of the puzzle. Hoskinson believes that tariffs, the Russo-Ukraine War, and other factors are all major contributors to this global breakdown that will help Bitcoin.

Crypto is currently more well-integrated into TradFi than ever, making it vulnerable to a wide array of macroeconomic concerns.

The industry is also gaining users quickly, with the total number of holders increasing 13% year over year. Bitcoin’s user base can take advantage of what Hoskinson calls “a huge wave of speculative interest” towards the end of the year.

The asset’s international positioning will keep it from being too reliant on this speculation forever.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Florida Bitcoin Reserve Bill Passes House With Zero Votes Against

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Florida’s Insurance and Banking Subcommittee unanimously passed a bill supporting a state-level Bitcoin Reserve. It will now head to the legislature. This is the first state Bitcoin reserve bill to pass the House committee with zero votes against it.

Although most of the initial comments were highly skeptical due to recent market chaos and fiscal conservatism, state sponsor Webster Barnaby and other supporters won them over.

Florida Advances in the State Race for a Bitcoin Reserve

Over the last few months, a spate of Bitcoin Reserve bills has swept through US state legislatures. Although these initiatives have seen setbacks due to funding concerns, they have also had noteworthy successes.

Today, the US crypto industry can count on another win, as Florida’s Insurance and Banking Subcommittee unanimously voted to approve a Bitcoin Reserve:

“Bitcoin Strategic Bill Passes House Committee unanimously. Today’s remarks was a historical moment, and I am proud to have been a part of it with Samuel Armes and Florida. Bitcoin is the PEOPLES currency,” claimed Joshua Jake, who spoke in favor of the initiative.

Florida’s Bitcoin Reserve bill also marks a new milestone, even if it’s only a Subcommittee vote. This bill passed with complete bipartisan support, without a single Democrat siding against the bill.

One of the Representatives either abstained or was absent, but everyone present was swayed by the argument.

The bill proposes that the Flordia state government invest $1.5 billion in public funds to build a strategic BTC reserve.

Although the Subcommittee hearing was initially skeptical, partially due to recent tariff-imposed chaos, sponsor Webster Barnaby maintained an impassioned defense.

By the end, he and the Bitcoin Reserve bill’s other supporters had wholly won over this Florida Subcommittee. From here, it will head to the legislature.

Over 30 states have proposed reserve bills so far. Arizona is currently leading the race, with both of its Bitcoin bills reaching the final stage and waiting for a decision from the Senate.

Active Bitcoin Reserve Bills Across US States
Active Bitcoin Reserve Bills Across US States. Source: Bitcoin Laws

Meanwhile, similar bills have already failed in five states, including Montana and Wyoming. The fact that Florida’s House Committee showed unanimous support could provide the state with an edge in this race.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.





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