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Analyst Says Bitcoin 4-Year Cycles Are Over, Here’s Why

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Popular analyst Justin Bennett has explained why the Bitcoin four-year cycle might be over for the foreseeable future. He indicated that the crypto’s projected price surge in this market cycle might not happen as planned and that Bitcoin could suffer a severe price crash soon enough. 

Why The Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Might Be Over

In an X (formerly Twitter) post, Bennett asserted that Bitcoin follows business cycles while explaining why the leading crypto might be on the verge of a new era. He noted that the leading crypto has been following the perfect four-year cycles since its inception, witnessing two years of a bear market and a bull market. 

However, he suggested that this could be set to change since Bitcoin’s correlation with business cycles means that a contraction would end these four-year cycles. To prove that Bitcoin follows business cycles, Bennett highlighted how Bitcoin has tracked the US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) from the start. 

Bitcoin 4-year cycle
Source: X

This index measures an economy’s health using the manufacturing and service sectors. The accompanying chart shows that BTC’s price has risen whenever the PMI does and drops whenever the index declines. In line with this, Bennett claimed that the correlation will still exist during the next short-term or long-term contraction. 

Interestingly, this contraction might already be imminent, which is why Bitcoin’s four-year cycle could be over. The US PMI is at a current price level of 47.20, representing a contraction. A contraction is when a country’s economy is declining, which could be said of the US at the moment as the Federal Reserve struggles to bring inflation down to its desired target while avoiding a recession. 

It is also worth mentioning that the US’s economic situation has majorly contributed to BTC’s stagnant price action since it reached a new all-time high (ATH) in March. Bitcoin investors have remained cautious as the US inflation data and job reports have shown how frail the US economy is. 

What This Means For BTC’s Price

Bennett noted that Bitcoin’s correlation with business cycles doesn’t mean its price cannot move higher. However, he remarked that people need to understand that BTC is a risk asset fueled by the economic conditions of post-2008. He added that it is not “programmed to go up” as crypto analysts have projected, neither is it destined to follow a “rainbow chart or stock-to-flow model.” 

The analyst’s perspective has undoubtedly cast doubt on bullish predictions based on halving cycles. Historically, Bitcoin hits new highs 16 to 18 months after the halving event. However, with Bennett suggesting that this perfect cycle might be over, this might not be the case this time. This cycle has already proven to be different, considering the flagship crypto hit a new ATH before the halving, which has never happened before. 

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $57,900, down almost 1% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. 

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com
BTC price struggling to hold $58,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com



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BlackRock CEO Says ‘I Was Wrong About Bitcoin’, Here’s Why

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Larry Fink, the founder and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has admitted to being wrong about his previous views on Bitcoin. While reversing his former stance on the pioneer cryptocurrency, the renowned CEO lauded praises for the cryptocurrency, underscoring its incredible growth over the years. 

BlackRock CEO Confesses Misjudgment On Bitcoin

In a recent interview with CNBC TV, Fink publicly disclosed that he was once a “proud skeptic” of Bitcoin, doubting the cryptocurrency’s value and long-term role in the financial sector. Like many in the financial sector who underestimate BTC’s potential, Fink had also misjudged the cryptocurrency.

He revealed that his perspectives on BTC have evolved significantly over the past five years. By dedicating time to studying cryptocurrency, Fink emphasized that he has come to appreciate and understand its importance and value

Acknowledging that he was wrong about Bitcoin in his past years, Fink has disclosed that he is now a firm believer in the cryptocurrency. He further declared that BTC is a legitimate digital currency and financial instrument that allows investors to have uncorrelated financial returns. 

Moving on, the BlackRock CEO noted Bitcoin’s crucial role in the economy of various global countries. He stated that Bitcoin is a financial instrument that has helped when countries have debased their fiat currencies by excess deficits. He also disclosed that in countries with poor economic and financial systems, BTC serves as an important payment method and investment asset outside the control of the country’s governance. 

Fink also called Bitcoin “digital gold,” emphasizing that the cryptocurrency is a vehicle in which investors can express their financial acumen. Moreover, Fink believes that there is a great industrial use for BTC, underscoring its technological and innovative potential in diverse sectors. 

For many crypto enthusiasts, Fink’s admission of once being a BTC skeptic may come as a surprise, considering his current role as the CEO of BlackRock, the top provider of Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Fink’s former stance on BTC has transformed in such a profound way that he now manages a company that is presently the world’s largest Bitcoin fund with over $21 billion in Assets Under Management (AUM)

BTC Critics Still Not Convinced

While Fink’s past skepticism of Bitcoin has undergone a dramatic shift, other critics of the cryptocurrency still remain firm in their doubts. Peter Schiff, a renowned BTC hater, recently shared another bearish price forecast for Bitcoin on X (formerly Twitter). 

Sharing a price chart, Schiff forecasted that Bitcoin is headed toward a downtrend at $42,000, with possibilities of even dropping lower to long-term support between $15,000 to $20,00. The Chief economist has constantly issued bearish predictions for the cryptocurrency. This skepticism likely stems from his personal aversion to the asset. 

Bitcoin BlackRock
Source: X

Furthermore, Schiff has regularly compared BTC to gold, announcing on September 16 that “Bitcoin is not digital gold, and it’s not even digital silver.” He has also criticized the cryptocurrency, stating that it lacked intrinsic value and is destined to fail.  

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com
BTC price loses $60,000 support | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com



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Analyst Uses Bitcoin Past Cycles To Pinpoint Start Of Bull Market – The Timeline Will Shock You

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Renowned analyst Lark Davis is forecasting a bullish trajectory for Bitcoin by the summer of 2025. This optimistic outlook is grounded in historical patterns observed in BTC’s previous price cycles, in which BTC has experienced three major bull runs, each spanning approximately four years and culminating in a significant price peak within a year of a Bitcoin halving event

Analyst Data Shows Bullish Fourth Quarter for Bitcoin

In a recent post on X, Lark Davis pointed to impressive quarterly returns in previous halving years—2016 and 2020. He emphasized that the fourth quarter following halving events has consistently been bullish. Furthermore, in the years after the halving, such as 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin saw bullish price action from the first to the third quarter.

Davis further added, “If history repeats itself, it could unleash mind-blowing gains that most people can’t even fathom,” forecasting significant growth opportunities in 2025.

Adding to this bullish sentiment is Rekt Capital, who recently told his 501,200 followers on X (formerly Twitter) that Bitcoin could see a strong fourth quarter. Rekt Capital highlighted that Bitcoin has historically averaged a 22.9% return in October since its inception, with only two instances where it closed lower than it opened in October. 

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has averaged a -5% return in September. The only two times BTC saw a decline in October were in 2014 (-12.95%) and 2018 (-3.83%), both during bear markets. He also noted that BTC is currently in a halving year, adding to the potential for positive price movement.

Bitcoin 2
Source: X

Rekt Capital further predicts that Bitcoin could reach its cycle peak in the second half of 2025, assuming it follows the traditional halving cycle. He explained, “In the 2015-2017 cycle, BTC peaked 518 days post halving. In the 2019-2021 cycle, Bitcoin peaked 546 days post halving.” If history repeats, and the next bull market peak occurs 518-546 days post halving, BTC could peak in mid-September to mid-October 2025.”

BTC’s Last Resistance Before The Bull Run

Bitcoin’s price experienced a significant uptick from September 8, reaching a high of $60,771 on September 14, according to Geckoterminal. This surge marked a return above the $60,000 psychological level for the first time since August 30.

However, following this rally, Bitcoin’s price underwent a corrective phase, forming a rounding top pattern. This bearish formation suggests that sellers might attempt to push the price lower towards the $55,137 support zone. 

Bitcoin 3
Source: GeckoTerminal

With the RSI now on a downward trend, there is a possibility that buyers might capitalize on the perceived undervaluation of the asset. A surge in demand at this level could lead to a bullish reversal, propelling Bitcoin towards the $64,000 monthly high and potentially igniting a broader bull run into 2025.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com
BTC price recovers toward $59,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com



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The Reason BlackRock Has Backed Crypto for Nearly a Decade

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Robbie Mitchnick, Head of Digital Assets at BlackRock, shared insights into the firm’s crypto strategy. BlackRock has been developing its approach for much longer than many might realize.

Mitchnick discussed BlackRock’s journey, Bitcoin’s role as an asset, ETFs, and the future of digital assets.

A Long Road to Public Adoption

Mitchnick revealed that BlackRock’s interest in crypto began as early as 2016, although the firm didn’t consider the asset class “ready for prime time” at the time. This marked the beginning of BlackRock’s crypto journey, quietly building capabilities before making larger public moves.

“The evolution really started to accelerate in the 2021-2022 timeframe. There were three key drivers behind this shift: The infrastructure around the system started to mature; A growing recognition that crypto was here to stay; A durable trend of clients showing increasing interest in the space,” Mitchnick noted.

Since this turning point, BlackRock’s involvement in crypto has increased, especially with the launch of its Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which Ryan Sean Adams described as a “Christmas miracle.” Education has played a crucial role in BlackRock’s strategy, as the firm aims to introduce a largely crypto-naive audience to the space.

BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF Inflows
BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Inflows. Source: CryptoQuant

Mitchnick emphasized the need to combat misunderstandings, such as the notion that Bitcoin is a “risk-on” asset. While Bitcoin is considered risky, risk-on assets are typically favored during bull markets. The confusion around Bitcoin being pitched as “digital gold” has led to misconceptions among newcomers.

“If you look at the Silicon Valley Bank and regional banking crisis in March 2023, that was probably the clearest example of Bitcoin acting as a hedge. The main reason it stood out was that the crypto research community didn’t have time to overcomplicate it,” Mitchnick explained.

BlackRock’s focus on education is essential in shifting these perceptions. In fast-moving markets, vague beliefs can quickly shape market behavior.

Mitchnick also mentioned that BlackRock would soon release an explainer on risk for their broader client base, while noting that Bitcoin tends to be favored by traders and Ethereum by developers. As for the possibility of a third ETF approval, he didn’t see a clear frontrunner at the moment.

A Future in Tokenization?

Mitchnick also touched on BlackRock’s view of tokenization, noting that while the idea of “blockchain, not Bitcoin” is fading, “tokenization, not Bitcoin” is gaining traction. Although the long-term viability of tokenization remains uncertain, BlackRock is working on the necessary infrastructure to support it.

“Our strategy is to provide clients with cheap and easy access to these markets and to offer technological capabilities. It would be strange if, 10 years from now, we only had seven tokenized funds. It’s more likely we’ll have none, or many,” Mitchnick stated.

BlackRock’s methodical approach to crypto demonstrates the firm’s commitment to both long-term viability and education. As more clients express interest, BlackRock is positioning itself as a leader in providing accessible digital asset investments.

While the future of tokenization and ETFs remains uncertain, BlackRock’s strategy suggests that the firm will remain a significant player in the industry, no matter how it shifts.

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