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Is Another ‘Black Monday’ Type Market Crash In The Making?

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Japanese yen carry trade that crashed stock and crypto markets globally is making a comeback. Hedge funds and corporate clients are gradually getting back to using popular Japanese yen-focused carry trade to invest proceeds into high-yield assets. Are these early signs of another Black Monday?

Black Monday Prospects As Yen Carry Trades Making A Comeback

Japanese yen has weakened to 149 per US dollar today, hitting a two-week low as the US dollar strengthened on better-than-expected US economic data.

Japan’s biggest brokerage firm Nomura Holdings disclosed that investors have started borrowing the Japanese yen again to invest these funds elsewhere in higher-yielding assets. Especially, corporate clients and hedge funds are making a comeback into these deals, Bloomberg reported on August 16.

“There has been a notable move back” into carry trades after US retail sales data beat estimates, said Antony Foster, head of Group-of-10 spot trading at Nomura in London. He also added that multiple accounts sold yen to buy the Australian dollar and sterling.

US bond yields rose as the retail sales data eased economic concerns and fueled Fed rate cut expectations. This led to carry trades mounting as investors look for quick profits. Traders bets billions of dollars that the yen would weaken, before the currency jumped last month.

Australian online forex broker ATFX Global Markets witnessed a nearly 30% to 40% rise in yen shorts in the past week, with bets majorly driven by hedge funds and high-net-worth investor clients.

BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida indicated that the central bank won’t raise interest rates currently as financial markets are unstable. However, it’s still unclear if BOJ plans to raise rates next year. Traders will get clarity as BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda is due to speak before parliament on Aug 23.

If Ueda remains dovish while Fed Chair Jerome Powell appears hawkish, that should keep interest rate differences between the US and Japan elevated, attracting more investors to enter carry trades. However, it also risks another Black Monday market crash.

“Global central banks are now shifting toward easing, barring the BOJ which will still keep rates low relative to peers. That means the carry trade is poised to make a comeback, provided that equity markets and the Chinese currency remain stable,” said Mary Nicola, Markets Live Strategist.

Arthur Hayes on How Crypto Market May React

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes warns that the market will focus on high-leverage trades if the BOJ and FED won’t allow the dollar-yen interest rate differential to narrow. High-leverage trades can make markets volatile and vulnerable to another stock and crypto market crash similar to Black Monday.

He says that Bitcoin price will increase in case either the currency system collapses or fiat liquidity chases assets with finite supplies. Meanwhile, hedge funds will continue to take carry trade benefits as long as the USD-Yen interest rate difference lasts. The crypto market today also relies heavily on leverage for trading.

BTC price paints a short-term bearish outlook after a 5% drop in a week, with the price currently trading at $58,324. The 24-hour low and high are $56,161 and $59,838, respectively. Furthermore, the trading volume has increased by 10% in the last 24 hours, indicating interest among traders. Bitcoin price risks falling to $54,000.

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Varinder Singh

Varinder has 10 years of experience in the Fintech sector, with over 5 years dedicated to blockchain, crypto, and Web3 developments. Being a technology enthusiast and analytical thinker, he has shared his knowledge of disruptive technologies in over 5000+ news, articles, and papers. With CoinGape Media, Varinder believes in the huge potential of these innovative future technologies. He is currently covering all the latest updates and developments in the crypto industry.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Ethereum Foundation Launches Pectra Tesnet ‘Mekong’, ETH Price Set For $4000

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Ethereum Foundation on Thursday announced launch of its first short-lived Pectra testnet ‘Mekong.’ This testnet includes all the EIPs proposed for the upcoming Pectra upgrade on the Ethereum network. Will this trigger ETH price rally to $4000 as the price jumped 8% in the last 24 hours?

Ethereum Foundation Introduces Mekong Tesnet for Pectra

In an official announcement by Ethereum Foundation on November 7, the first short-lived Mekong testnet was introduced after scoping the Pectra fork and four DevNet events

The foundation said the Mekong testnet consists of all the EIPs proposed for the next major Pectra upgrade. It includes changes such as UX changes via EIP-7702, staking changes via EIP-7251, changes to the deposits and exit mechanisms via EIP-6110 and EIP-7002.

The Mekong testnet is focused on wallet developers to engage with UX changes and for stakers to gain confidence in the upcoming changes. This is a short-lived testnet but the features included will make it into existing public testnets and finally the mainnet.

In addition, Ethereum developer Tim Beiko reveals ethPandaOps has introduced this short-lived Pectra testnet Mekong to introduce major changes in mainnet. Also, this helps the crypto community try out EIP-7702, MaxEB consolidations, and more.

Moreover, Ethereum Foundation developer Parithosh recommended wallet teams to try Mekong testnet at the DevCon Week, which will run the entire week of November 9-17.

ETH Price to Hit $4000

Bullish sentiment surrounding Donald Trump’s win and DevCon event has triggered the rally. Moreover, the launch of the Mekong testnet to fuel ETH price further. Notably, analyst Benjamin Cowen predicted Ethereum price rally after a bottom formation confirmation in the ETH/BTC pair above the 50 DMA.

Popular analysts Michael van de Poppe and Ali Martinez said Ethereum is in the early bull run stage. With the Pectra upgrade expected to take place in early 2025, whales are likely to buy the dip. Michael van de Poppe suggested that the markets are rotating and ETH will see a massive pump. Notably, a higher-low formation will bring much-awaited upward momentum.

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Also, Ali Martinez added that MVRV Momentum crossing its 180-day has historically signaled a period of outperformance for ETH price. The cross hasn’t happened yet and gives an opportunity to buy the dip for more upside ahead for the $4000 psychological level.

ETH price today jumped 8% to a 3-month high, with the price currently trading at $2,800. The 24-hour low and high are $2,611 and $2,878, respectively. However, the trading volume has decreased by 6% over the last day.

MVRV momentumMVRV momentum
MVRV momentum

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Varinder Singh

Varinder has 10 years of experience in the Fintech sector, with over 5 years dedicated to blockchain, crypto, and Web3 developments. Being a technology enthusiast and analytical thinker, he has shared his knowledge of disruptive technologies in over 5000+ news, articles, and papers. With CoinGape Media, Varinder believes in the huge potential of these innovative future technologies. He is currently covering all the latest updates and developments in the crypto industry.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Why Bitcoin Users Are Moving to Altcoins? As Ethereum Price Jumps 11%

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Although the Bitcoin price rally has paused above $75,000 a day after Donald Trump’s victory, altcoins have continued their strong show with the Ethereum price taking the lead with 11% gains all the way to $2,850 levels. Investors have a lot of questions as to does this mark the beginning of the much-awaited altseason moving ahead.

Altcoins Steal the Limelight from Bitcoin?

On the day of Donald Trump’s victory on November 6, the Bitcoin price touched its all-time high levels surging all the way to $75,000. While the bulls try to defend these levels, altcoins seem to grabbing the investors’ focus.

The Ethereum price has managed to pull off 12% gains moving all the way to the $2,850 level and eying further rally to its all-time high levels. This comes despite strong selling pressure from Ethereum whales. Popular crypto analyst IncomeSharks noted that the ETH price has given a crucial breakout from the downward trendline slope, which opens the gates for a 75% rally from here to new all-time highs.

Furthermore, after hitting the lower lows over the past few months, the ETH/BTC trading pair has notched up a bit. “With ETH/BTC at 0.035 it definitely makes sense to start hedging,” added Cowen. However, he added that for the bottom formation confirmation, the ETH/BTC pair must end above the 50 DMA.

Apart from Ethereum price surge, other altcoins like Solana made strong gains on Donald Trump’s victory. The Solana price has surged to $188 once again as talks about the approval of spot Solana ETF in the Trump presidency gain traction. As a result, analysts predict an SOL surge to $300 levels from here.

Will BTC Lose the Grip Over the Market?

Some market analysts state that it is still early to call the altseason and expect Bitcoin dominance to grow even further. Also, this could just be the beginning of the next major Bitcoin bull run.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt shared an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin, suggesting it has entered a “sweet spot” in the current bull market halving cycle. According to Brandt, Bitcoin is on track to peak between $130,000 and $150,000 by August or September of next year, marking a potential new high for the cryptocurrency.

Echoing similar thoughts, crypto analyst Ali Martinez noted that the next BTC top usually happens after 8 to 12 months following a monthly close above the previous all-time highs. Thus, he expects the next BTC top to happen anywhere between July to November 2025.

According to blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s recent all-time high doesn’t signal an overvaluation relative to its cost basis. The firm’s data on the MVRV ratio suggests that BTC remains well below peak levels. Additionally, Bitcoin’s price is close to traders’ average purchase cost, indicating that the market is not currently overheated. These insights point to the potential for continued growth in Bitcoin’s value.

Courtesy: CryptoQuant

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Bhushan Akolkar

Bhushan is a FinTech enthusiast with a keen understanding of financial markets. His interest in economics and finance has led him to focus on emerging Blockchain technology and cryptocurrency markets. He is committed to continuous learning and stays motivated by sharing the knowledge he acquires. In his free time, Bhushan enjoys reading thriller fiction novels and occasionally explores his culinary skills.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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XRP Price At Risk As Ripple Moves $250M?

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The XRP price has come under the spotlight following Ripple’s recent $250 million XRP transfer. This comes amid bullish predictions for the coin, with analysts saying that its price could enjoy a parabolic rally following Donald Trump’s win.

The XRP Price At Risk With Ripple’s $250 Million Transfer

The XRP price is at risk of a decline following Ripple’s transfer of $250 million worth of XRP to an unknown wallet. Onchain data shows that the crypto firm transferred 470 million XRP to this wallet (rP4X2…sKxv3). This unknown wallet has since transferred 100 million XRP to another wallet (rhWt2…E32hk).

The purpose of the $250 million transfer remains unclear. However, it could relate to Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) services or the ongoing SEC appeal case.

This development comes just a day after XRP whales moved $814 million, indicating whale accumulation. While the Ripple transfer is unlikely to impact the XRP price since it will likely be done over the counter (OTC) if it is a potential sale, it could still create a bearish sentiment among XRP investors.

However, crypto analysts are confident that XRP is currently in bullish territory following Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential elections. The coin could surge up to 3,336% as crypto analyst StephIsCrypto predicted a major above $2 following Trump’s victory.

A Price Surge Above $20 By Year-End

In an X post, Crypto analyst Amonyx made a bold prediction, stating that the XRP price will rise above $20 by year-end. In another X post, the analyst suggested that he was confident that this price surge would happen with the US SEC chair Gary Gensler set to be removed following Donald Trump’s victory.

Gensler’s removal is bullish for the XRP price because he has spearheaded the long-running legal battle against Ripple. The legal battle could have negatively impacted XRP all this time, creating doubts in investors’ minds.

However, with Gensler gone and the Ripple SEC lawsuit likely to end, investors could again become bullish on XRP and look to invest more in the crypto. Crypto analyst Ross Vandermeer also predicted that the XRP price could eventually rise to $1,000 thanks to Donald Trump’s US election victory.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently called on the US president-elect to fire Gary Gensler on day 1, just like he promised. Meanwhile, Ripple chief legal officer (CLO) Stuart Alderoty urged Trump to end the regulation-by-enforcement approach to position the US as the crypto capital.

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Boluwatife Adeyemi

Boluwatife Adeyemi is a well-experienced crypto news writer and editor who has covered topics that cut across DeFi, NFTs, smart contracts, and blockchain interoperability, among others. Boluwatife has a knack for simplifying the most technical concepts and making it easy for crypto newbies to understand. Away from writing, He is an avid basketball lover and a part-time degen.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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