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Is Another ‘Black Monday’ Type Market Crash In The Making?

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8 months ago

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Japanese yen carry trade that crashed stock and crypto markets globally is making a comeback. Hedge funds and corporate clients are gradually getting back to using popular Japanese yen-focused carry trade to invest proceeds into high-yield assets. Are these early signs of another Black Monday?

Black Monday Prospects As Yen Carry Trades Making A Comeback

Japanese yen has weakened to 149 per US dollar today, hitting a two-week low as the US dollar strengthened on better-than-expected US economic data.

Japan’s biggest brokerage firm Nomura Holdings disclosed that investors have started borrowing the Japanese yen again to invest these funds elsewhere in higher-yielding assets. Especially, corporate clients and hedge funds are making a comeback into these deals, Bloomberg reported on August 16.

“There has been a notable move back” into carry trades after US retail sales data beat estimates, said Antony Foster, head of Group-of-10 spot trading at Nomura in London. He also added that multiple accounts sold yen to buy the Australian dollar and sterling.

US bond yields rose as the retail sales data eased economic concerns and fueled Fed rate cut expectations. This led to carry trades mounting as investors look for quick profits. Traders bets billions of dollars that the yen would weaken, before the currency jumped last month.

Australian online forex broker ATFX Global Markets witnessed a nearly 30% to 40% rise in yen shorts in the past week, with bets majorly driven by hedge funds and high-net-worth investor clients.

BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida indicated that the central bank won’t raise interest rates currently as financial markets are unstable. However, it’s still unclear if BOJ plans to raise rates next year. Traders will get clarity as BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda is due to speak before parliament on Aug 23.

If Ueda remains dovish while Fed Chair Jerome Powell appears hawkish, that should keep interest rate differences between the US and Japan elevated, attracting more investors to enter carry trades. However, it also risks another Black Monday market crash.

“Global central banks are now shifting toward easing, barring the BOJ which will still keep rates low relative to peers. That means the carry trade is poised to make a comeback, provided that equity markets and the Chinese currency remain stable,” said Mary Nicola, Markets Live Strategist.

Arthur Hayes on How Crypto Market May React

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes warns that the market will focus on high-leverage trades if the BOJ and FED won’t allow the dollar-yen interest rate differential to narrow. High-leverage trades can make markets volatile and vulnerable to another stock and crypto market crash similar to Black Monday.

He says that Bitcoin price will increase in case either the currency system collapses or fiat liquidity chases assets with finite supplies. Meanwhile, hedge funds will continue to take carry trade benefits as long as the USD-Yen interest rate difference lasts. The crypto market today also relies heavily on leverage for trading.

BTC price paints a short-term bearish outlook after a 5% drop in a week, with the price currently trading at $58,324. The 24-hour low and high are $56,161 and $59,838, respectively. Furthermore, the trading volume has increased by 10% in the last 24 hours, indicating interest among traders. Bitcoin price risks falling to $54,000.

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Varinder Singh

Varinder has 10 years of experience in the Fintech sector, with over 5 years dedicated to blockchain, crypto, and Web3 developments. Being a technology enthusiast and analytical thinker, he has shared his knowledge of disruptive technologies in over 5000+ news, articles, and papers. With CoinGape Media, Varinder believes in the huge potential of these innovative future technologies. He is currently covering all the latest updates and developments in the crypto industry.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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PumpFun Moves $13M SOL To Kraken as Solana Price Consolidates, What Next?

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16 minutes ago

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April 21, 2025

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PumpFun has transferred 95,934 SOL, worth approximately $13.34 million, to Kraken, further adding to the total 1,818,889 SOL moved to the exchange in 2025, equating to around $324.06 million.

This move marks a continued trend of significant activity surrounding Solana (SOL), reflecting growing investor interest. As SOL consolidates its price following recent bullish trends, this development raises questions about the potential direction of the cryptocurrency.

PumpFun Whale Activity and SOL’s Recent Performance

According to blockchain data provider Lookonchain, PumpFun’s recent deposit adds to a growing list of whale activities. So far, in 2025, the total SOL moved to Kraken by PumpFun alone exceeds 1.8 million, highlighting a considerable volume of transactions. Solana’s price has shown notable strength, especially in light of recent whale movements, which tend to indicate investor confidence.

Solana’s price has recently cleared significant resistance levels, with many analysts suggesting the cryptocurrency is in a strong upward trend. A crypto analyst, Ted, has pointed out that the SOL price is showing bullish signs similar to the Q4 of 2022.

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Ted suggests that SOL could see price levels between $160 to $180 by May 2025, with the potential for an all-time high later in the year. As whale activity continues, these predictions may influence market sentiment further.

Institutional Interest in Solana Surges

Institutional players’ participation is another factor that gives optimism to the SOL’s bullish run. Another player in the game is Galaxy Digital, though it has recently started making major withdrawals, pulling out about $77m worth of SOL from exchanges starting mid-April.

This also involved a substantial $19.5 million sell-off from Binance, showing faith in Solana’s potential. Other market players, such as Janover, also bought over $10m worth of Solana, validating the optimistic forecast for SOL price.

Such actions from institutional investors are usually viewed in the market as strong signs of confidence. Based on Galaxy Digital’s withdrawal, it could be estimated that large investors are preparing for higher SOL gains, which underlines the upbeat sentiment in Solana price. This increase in institutional support could enhance the overall market sentiment and help SOL rise in the short run.

Growing Number of Large Solana Holders

In addition to institutional interest like PumpFun’s, large retail investors are also becoming more active in Solana. Analyst Ali Martinez reported that the number of wallets holding 10,000 or more SOL increased by 1.53% in the past week.

This uptick, which grew from 4,943 wallets to 5,019, suggests that bigger holders are accumulating more Solana quietly. Such accumulation often occurs before broader market recognition, which can lead to price rallies.

This pattern of increasing wallet activity from significant holders further points to confidence in Solana’s potential. If these large investors continue to increase their positions, the demand for SOL could continue to rise, creating upward pressure on its price. The accumulation could be a sign that some are positioning themselves ahead of a potential breakout in price.

SOL Technical Analysis and Price Forecasts

The recent movement in Solana price has caught traders’ attention, with some analysts forecasting a continued rise. Another crypto analyst, Learnernoearner, suggested that an inverse head and shoulders pattern may be forming, indicating a potential long-entry opportunity.

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If Solana price experiences a brief pullback, this could provide an attractive entry point for traders.

Key technical levels for SOL price include support at $125, immediate resistance at $135, and a breakout zone at $178. If SOL price breaches the $178 mark, further targets could include $199, $216, and $238, and some even suggest a rally to $2000.

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Kelvin Munene Murithi

Kelvin is a distinguished writer with expertise in crypto and finance, holding a Bachelor’s degree in Actuarial Science. Known for his incisive analysis and insightful content, he possesses a strong command of English and excels in conducting thorough research and delivering timely cryptocurrency market updates.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Ark Invest Gains First Exposure to Solana With 3iQ ETF Bet

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1 hour ago

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April 21, 2025

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Ark Invest, the asset management firm owned by Cathie Wood, has gained its first exposure to Solana as the broader financial market expands its adoption of cryptocurrencies. The firm has added exposure to two tech investment vehicles via the 3iQ Solana Staking ETF (SOLQ). Market analysts believe this move validates SOL, a front-runner for spot altcoin ETF in the US.

The Ark Invest Solana Exposure

According to the Citywire report, the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) and ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF) have SOLQ in their respective portfolios. These Cathie Wood’s funds bought 237,500 shares of SOLQ apiece, validating the Solana fundamentals.

Canadian regulators approved the 3iQ SOL ETF for trading earlier this month, alongside other crypto funds from Purpose, Evolve, and CI. These ETF products went live on schedule on April 16, placing them in line for mainstream exposure.

As Ark Invest revealed in its press release, the Solana architecture and its design for speed and efficiency make it ideal for the next generation of the internet. With the bet, the Cathie Wood firm has made history as the first U.S.-based ETF to gain exposure to Solana.

Beyond Ark Invest and Solana: Portfolio Diversification Goes Mainstream

Asset management firms are shifting toward crypto products, a move beyond ARK and SOL. As CoinGape reported earlier, Charles Schwab has revealed plans to launch crypto trading later this year. The firm, with $10 trillion in assets under management, may add more credence to the nascent asset class if it pulls through with its plans.

Under President Donald Trump, the improving crypto regulation landscape has given asset managers like Ark Invest the long-sought leverage to bet on the market. The precedent was set earlier with spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF approval in 2024.

With key agencies like the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Commodity Futures and Trading Commission (CFTC), and Federal Deposit Insurance Commission (FDIC) now aligned to crypto, more firms may soon join the diversification move.

Crypto ETFs and Role In TradFi Embrace

Despite the generally positive regulatory environment, many traditional financial firms are still skeptical of direct exposure to crypto. While many, like Ark Invest, do not mind the volatility, custody remains a major challenge.

More relatable products like Spot XRP ETF have been lodged with the SEC to mitigate this. With asset managers going all out in their bid, Solana, Hedera, Litecoin, and Dogecoin, among other assets, are also awaiting potential approvals from the SEC.

While the market regulator was skeptical of these kinds of products in the past, it now takes a different stance. Market experts expect approval before the end of this year.

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Godfrey Benjamin

Benjamin Godfrey is a blockchain enthusiast and journalists who relish writing about the real life applications of blockchain technology and innovations to drive general acceptance and worldwide integration of the emerging technology. His desires to educate people about cryptocurrencies inspires his contributions to renowned blockchain based media and sites. Benjamin Godfrey is a lover of sports and agriculture.

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Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Analyst Reveals How High XRP Price Can Go If This Happens

Published

2 hours ago

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April 21, 2025

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XRP price seems to be headed for a dramatic turning point, with various analysts citing bullish chart patterns that indicate a probable price spike over the next few months. The fourth-largest crypto is showing a strong technical setup on the 6-month candle chart, with formerly limiting resistance points now eliminated.

XRP Price Displays Eliminated Resistance And Bullish RSI

Technical analyst Dark Defender has posted a tweet that shows a 6-month candle chart indicating these “Eliminated Resistance” levels and a “Bullish RSI” (Relative Strength Index) indicator. The chart indicates that XRP has broken above significant historical resistance levels that previously capped price action.

Several price targets have emerged from analysts tracking the cryptocurrency. The analysts’ projections range from approximately $3.75 to over $18 in the coming months. Despite these bullish technical signals, sentiment indicators remain cautious, and the Fear & Greed Index shows a reading of 39. This places it in the “Fear” category.

The 6-month candle chart for XRP/USD shared by analyst Dark Defender highlights two key technical factors that could support a potential price surge. First, the chart identifies multiple “Eliminated Resistance” levels that XRP has now cleared. This removes previous price ceilings that constrained upward movement in past cycles.

These eliminated resistance zones appear at different points on the historical chart, with the most recent breakthrough occurring in the latest completed candle. According to Dark Defender, this technical development raises an important question for traders: “Is it Bullish or Bearish in the next 6 months?” The analyst indicates that the present candle will close at the end of June 2025, giving the traders a time frame for possible price action.

The second important technical signal highlighted is a “Bullish RSI” reading. The Relative Strength Index, at the lower part of the chart, is shown to be on the rise, moving into bullish levels above the 70 level. This momentum indicator shows increasing buying pressure behind XRP’s recent price action.

XRP Could Soon Hit $5

CryptoBull analyst provides additional technical analysis, labeling the pattern as a massive bullish falling wedge with an even larger bullish triangle encompassing the wicks. The analyst predicts a breakout from the patterns and a target price that could see XRP go as high as $5 before finally landing at a base of $3.85.

There have been suggestions by analysts about specific price targets for XRP in their outlook. Dark Defender shared short-term to medium-term target prices of $3.75, $5.85, and a wildly high target at $18.22.

CryptoBull offered a more detailed price action prediction and indicated that XRP is going to breakout in the near future with price action that can include a wick up to $5 and close around $3.85.

Amidst these modest predictions, certain analysts even predicted the XRP price to reach $280. Another analyst, Captain Faibik, instructed followers to continue purchasing XRP. He further added that the next increase will be “explosive” to the $5 level in the mid-term. Multiple analysts in agreement at the $5 level indicate it might be a key target for traders and investors.

Though analysts are optimistic, the prevailing mood in the market is cautious. CoinCodex indicates their latest forecast predicts that XRP could drop by 8.35% to $1.95 on May 21, 2025. CoinCodex also predicts that XRP had 13 days of gain in the previous 30 days (43%), and price activity has averaged 7.48% in the last 30 days.

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Vignesh Karunanidhi

Vignesh Karunanidhi is a seasoned crypto journalist with nearly 7 years of experience in the cryptocurrency industry. He has contributed to numerous publications, including WatcherGuru, BeInCrypto, Milkroad, and authored over 10,000 articles

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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