The cryptocurrency market is buzzing with discussions about the delayed onset of the altcoin season. While Bitcoin has surged due to institutional interest and spot ETF (exchange-traded funds) demand, the altcoin market remains relatively subdued.

Analysts and industry insiders are dissecting the factors behind this phenomenon, revealing a technical interplay of capital flows, investor behavior, and market events.

Diverging Opinions on Delayed Altcoin Season

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, argues that the current Bitcoin (BTC) rally differs significantly from previous cycles. In a detailed thread on X (formerly Twitter), he explained that the nature of capital flowing into Bitcoin has shifted. Institutional investors and spot ETFs are now driving Bitcoin’s growth rather than retail traders on crypto exchanges.

“These institutional investors and ETF buyers have no intention of rotating their assets from Bitcoin to altcoins,” Ki Young Ju stated.

He emphasized that these players operate outside of crypto exchanges, making asset rotation less feasible. Moreover, smaller altcoins depend heavily on exchange users for liquidity, which has been lacking in this cycle.

CryptoQuant CEO suggested that fresh capital must flow into crypto exchanges for altcoins to achieve new all-time highs — a trend not yet evident. While institutional funds might venture into major altcoins, minor ones remain reliant on retail traders.

Ki Young Ju concluded that altcoins need independent strategies to attract fresh capital rather than riding Bitcoin’s momentum. Despite this cautious outlook, he remains optimistic.

“Altseason will come, but it’ll be selective. Not every altcoin will hit its previous ATH,” he added.

Not everyone agrees with CryptoQuant CEO’s analysis. CryptoVizArt, a senior analyst and researcher at Glassnode, believes altseason has already begun. He highlighted Solana’s explosive growth in active addresses, which now number 18.6 million per day—nearly 40X that of Ethereum.

“Retail has already chosen where to gamble in this cycle,” CryptoVizArt noted.

The researcher pointed to the popularity of meme coins and Solana-based projects as evidence of altseason in progress. However, Ki Young Ju partially aligned with this view.

“Altseason has started for a few major altcoins, but not for others,” the CryptoQuant executive noted.

Other analysts, like Crypto Feras, take a more historical perspective. In their view, altseason traditionally occurs in the latter stages of Bitcoin’s cycle.

“In 2020, altcoins were crushed during Bitcoin’s glorious run in H2, only to rally later,” Feras stated.

They argue that the sheer number of altcoins today dilutes capital inflows, making the current cycle’s altseason less impactful than previous ones.

The Psychology of Market Cycles

XForceGlobal, another prominent community member, offered a nuanced critique of Ki Young Ju’s argument, highlighting the role of psychology and the dominance metric in understanding market behavior.

“It’s impossible to measure the allocation of institutions versus exchange users. The market operates as a self-fulfilling prophecy,” they said.

They pointed out that altseason often lags Bitcoin’s rally, with confidence in Bitcoin typically translating into altcoin growth.

“Altcoins will always lag, but once money flow aligns, an altseason is inevitable,” XForceGlobal concluded.

Adding to the discussion, indicators such as the Ethereum-to-Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) ratio hitting historic lows suggest a possible shift in the market. Similarly, BeInCrypto also reported on altcoins being poised for growth, supported by rising sentiment and key technical indicators.

However, the total altcoin market cap remains below its all-time high, echoing Ki Young Ju’s concern about the lack of fresh liquidity from exchange users.

The consensus among analysts is that altcoin season will arrive, but its scale and scope remain uncertain. Institutional interest in Bitcoin has reshaped the market, reducing the direct spillover into altcoins. Retail participation, essential for smaller altcoins, has shifted focus to niche sectors like meme coins and Solana.

Ultimately, altcoins must innovate to attract new capital independently. Whether through unique use cases, partnerships, or technology breakthroughs, the path forward requires more than reliance on Bitcoin’s momentum.

As Ki Young Ju aptly summarized, “Bitcoin’s future growth is tied to ETFs, institutions, and governments—not retail traders. Altcoins must adapt to this new reality to thrive.”