Altcoin

Here’s Why Bitcoin, ETH, XRP Risk Massive Liquidations

Published

5 months ago

August 12, 2024

Coin2049 Newsletter

Crypto market selloff intensified gradually as global affairs, macroeconomic events, and technical weakness spurred panic among investors. The global crypto market lost more than $100 billion over the last 24 hours, with market cap falling to $2.05 trillion.

Bitcoin and Ethereum prices dropped more than 4% to hit intraday lows of $58,207 and $2,513, respectively. Other top altcoins such as BNB, SOL, XRP, TON, and ADA fell 4-7% in the last 24 hours. Major selloffs were seen in AI coins and meme coins.

Here are the reasons why the crypto market will remain under pressure and further liquidation may continue in the coming days.

Speculation Over Bank Of Japan Rate Hike Next Year

While the Bank of Japan (BOJ) cleared that they won’t raise interest rates this year after the recent market turmoil, Yen carry trades still haunt markets. Experts and traders anticipate a second wave of crypto market selloff as people have swapped on cash and carry trade after Bitcoin ETF launch.

Former BOJ board member Makoto Sakurai recently said “They won’t be able to hike again, at least for the rest of the year.” However, it’s still unclear whether Bank of Japan can do one more rate hike next March.

Japan’s Financial Services Agency Commissioner Hideki Ito also took a cautious stance on approving crypto ETFs and cited no long-term value and investor protection concerns. The move came during the recent market meltdown after rate hike by Japan.

Geopolitical Tensions, US Recession Fears, and More

The crypto market selloff continues amid the Russia-Ukraine war, with recent tensions regarding fire at Europe’s largest nuclear power plant. Russia and Ukraine accused each other of starting a fire at Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine.

Several reports now claim that Israel expects a major Iranian attack to be launched within days. As per a report by The Times of Israel, it could happen possibly before renewed ceasefire-hostage deal talks are held on Thursday.

Meanwhile, Hindenburg Research’s allegations directly on the SEBI Chairperson of having stake in obscure offshore entities linked to Adani money siphoning scandal raised risks. SEBI Chief Madhabi Puri Buch denied these allegations. But Hindenburg Research in a new post on X platform claimed that Buch’s new statements raise critical questions about her consulting companies and involvement.

US recession fears still exist as some economists believe the economy could be in recession, contradicting CEOs and businesspeople’s view that the US economy is resilient and there are no signs of recession. The crypto market also awaits the jobs numbers this week for further data on the labor market conditions.

US Inflation Data May Drive Further Crypto Market Selloff

The week has key US macro readings this week. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) on Tuesday, US CPI inflation data on Wednesday, Initial Jobless Claims and U.S. Retail Sales on Thursday. The US Federal Reserve to consider these before deciding on its monetary policy plans. Lower inflation data to stop crypto market selloff.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there are 53.5% odds of a 25 bps rate cut and 46.5% odds of 50 bps rate cut by the Federal Reserve at their September meeting.

Bloomberg’s latest survey of economists showed that nearly four-fifths of respondents expected the Federal Reserve to only cut interest rates by 25 bps in September. Moreover, the average estimate showed that the probability of an emergency rate cut before the September meeting was only 10%.

CoinGlass reports that BTC Liquidity / OrderBook Heatmap indicates weakness. It predicts that BTC price can further drop to $56,800. However, if the bounce is strong, BTC will test higher levels. However, the prices could drop to lower levels, if the bounce is weak. Notably, Bitcoin death cross could trigger further crypto market selloff.

Moreover, $2 billion in BTC longs risks getting liquidated below $58,600, as per BTC exchange liquidation map data. In the last 24 hours, 61k traders were liquidated as total liquidation rose above $166 million for top cryptocurrencies. The largest single liquidation order happened on crypto exchange OKX for ETH-USD-SWAP trade valued at $2.17 million.