According to a crypto analyst known pseudonymously as Master Kenobi on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), the prime cryptocurrency that’s going to outperform Bitcoin in this market cycle is none other than Dogecoin, the original OG meme coin. The analyst suggested that Dogecoin will outperform Bitcoin in the ongoing market cycle due to the follower effect, with Bitcoin laying the groundwork for the meme coin. 

This comes even as Bitcoin has had the lion’s share of investments and new inflow into the crypto industry since the beginning of the year due to increased institutional investments. This has seen Bitcoin outperforming most altcoins, with Ethereum, the king of altcoins, especially struggling to keep up.

Dogecoin Will Outperform Bitcoin Due To The Follower Effect

In a lengthy post on X, Master Kenobi highlighted points to support his Dogecoin claims. While Bitcoin has enjoyed a surge in dominance since the beginning of 2024, Dogecoin’s historical performance and community-driven momentum seem to support the analyst’s claim.

Created as a joke in 2013, Dogecoin has defied expectations and carved out a niche for itself as a top-10 cryptocurrency in terms of market cap. Particularly, the analyst noted that DOGE has consistently outperformed Bitcoin in every market cycle for the past 10 years. He credits this interesting dynamic to the follower effect between Bitcoin and Dogecoin. The follower effect basically suggests that DOGE has had the advantage of riding Bitcoin’s trajectory and using it as a launchpad for the past few years.

Particularly, the analyst noted that Bitcoin has largely existed without a blueprint. This has prompted Bitcoin to become the blueprint followed by other cryptocurrencies, which allowed DOGE to grow more quickly. In the 2017 and 2021 bull runs, Dogecoin’s gains dwarfed those of Bitcoin, largely driven by retail investors, memes, and support from high-profile figures like Elon Musk.

When To Expect A DOGE Price Surge

Dogecoin currently has a market cap of $15.2 billion, a 67% increase since October 2023, the month that marks the beginning of the current market cycle. Drawing similarities with Bitcoin and the 2024 halving, Master Kenobi noted that Dogecoin’s current trajectory after the 2024 halving bears a lot of similarities to Bitcoin’s performance following the 2016 halving. Specifically, he pointed out that Dogecoin’s market cap is currently the same as where Bitcoin was roughly 190 days after its 2016 halving event.

Going by this reasoning, the analyst suggests Dogecoin should be able to reach at least a market cap of $320 billion sometime in 2025. In order to reach this point in market cap with the time projection, DOGE would need to go on a price surge of over 2,000% within the next one year. At the time of writing, DOGE is trading at $0.1043. A market cap of $320 billion necessitates the meme coin to be trading around $2.2.

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As the crypto market gears up for a potential bull run in 2025, analyst IonicXBT has shared his comprehensive guide on how to identify the Bitcoin market top in this cycle. The analysts’ guide is based upon the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), one of the lesser-known but highly useful metrics for analyzing Bitcoin.

IonicXBT Detailed SOPR Metric Guide

IonicXBT on X (formerly twitter) told his 125,000 followers that the SOPR metric has consistently accurately predicted the tops of previous crypto market cycles, citing instances of 2018 and 2021. The SOPR is a metric that tells us whether the average investor in the Bitcoin market is selling their coins at a profit or at a loss right now. 

When the indicator has a value greater than 1, it means that the average holder in the sector is selling their coins at some profit right now. On the other hand, a value under this threshold implies that loss-selling is dominant among the participants. According to the chart he dropped, he seemed to think that Bitcoin’s moving average SOPR has fallen below 1.0, indicating that most spent outputs are being sold at a loss.

He further highlighted that the current drop in SOPR indicates that the bottom of the correction is near, suggesting that the market is not yet close. 

Interestingly he urged his followers to remain calm as he emphasized on the significance of SOPR spikes, noting that they often signal market tops as long-term holders lock in profits. He further assured them of his commitment to providing accurate signals for identifying the market top which focuses on real strategies backed by data rather than hype or speculation. 

“But don’t worry, I’ll be the first to give you the signal of the top. No hype, no nonsense, Just real strategies backed by data,” the analyst said.

Alternative Guide To Know The Bitcoin Market Top Cycle

While IonicXBT has highlighted the SOPR metric as a valuable tool for predicting market tops, other analysts, such as Kaleo, have shared alternative indicators. Kaleo has presented an inverse Bitcoin chart suggesting that BTC could reach the trendline of his logarithmic growth curve by next year, potentially soaring to a massive price target of around $220,000.

In a recent post, Kaleo expressed growing bullishness, stating, “Alright, I’m giving in. Be more bullish.” Analyzing the inverse chart, he suggests that Bitcoin tends to experience steep rallies a few months after its halving event, when BTC miner rewards are slashed in half.

Kaleo believes that Bitcoin will consolidate for a few more days before initiating surges that break through multiple resistance levels. Based on the chart, he appears to predict that Bitcoin will reach new all-time highs by early next month. At the time of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at $62,092, up over 3% for the day. 

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Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market have been trading sideways for the better part of the year now. However, the tide is starting to turn as there could be a recovery trend for the crypto market very soon. To this end, a crypto founder has identified the best and worst times to be an investor in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Going by his prediction, the worst could be over for Bitcoin, and the market could be for a great time soon.

Best And Worst Time To Be In Bitcoin

Charles Edwards, founder of digital assets-focused hedge fund Capriole Investments, took to X (formerly Twitter), to share when he thinks is the best a worst time to be in Bitcoin. In the post, Edwards attached a screenshot of quarterly returns for Bitcoin, showing the best and worst-performing quarters.

According to the information, the best quarter for Bitcoin is the last quarter of the year, and the worst is the third quarter of the year. Going by this, it means that the Bitcoin price is currently going through its worst-performing quarter. However, this also means that the downtrend could be nearing its end since the month of September is almost over.

The average returns for the third quarter is shown to be +5.39%, the worst of any quarter. The second worst-performing quarter is the second quarter, but even that remains high at +26.89%, while the median returns for the fourth quarter is actually in the negative at -4.64%, an is the only quarter with a negative median return.

In contrast, the fourth quarter has always been bullish, with average returns of +88.84% and median returns of +56.90%. With less than two weeks left to go in the third quarter, Edwards believes that the worst is over. “If you are still here, congratulations. You made it through the worst time to be in Bitcoin. The best lies ahead,” the post read.

BTC Could Jump To New All-Time High In October

Going by the monthly returns for Bitcoin, as depicted on the Coinglass website, Edwards’ forecast that the decline is almost over looks to be correct. The months of October, November, and December have been some of the most bullish months for the coin in history, and this year could be the exact same.

If this trend holds, then the Bitcoin price could be looking at an average increase of around 20% in October. Such a price increase could set the BTC price on a path to a new all-time high. A continuation of the bullish trend would see the Bitcoin price hit a new all-time high by the time the year 2024 is over.

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com