In a wide-ranging discussion on The Culture Bit podcast, Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI) Executive Director and national security expert Matthew Pines gave his latest assessment of the evolving relationship between the Trump administration and Bitcoin. Joined by Simply Bitcoin host Nico Moran and show host Alan Helm, Pines underscored how BTC’s growing influence in Washington has quickly become a key element of US economic and geopolitical strategy.

Trump Is ‘Paying Serious Attention To Bitcoin’

Pines quickly turned to Washington, where the Trump administration has launched several initiatives that place BTC firmly on the federal agenda. In particular, the White House’s recent executive orders have prompted agencies to explore whether the US should establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR), incorporate BTC into a potential sovereign wealth fund, and devise clearer rules around stablecoins.

According to Pines, the prospect of a national BTC reserve, once considered fringe, now carries growing traction: “Trump came in and signed an executive order establishing a President’s Working Group on digital assets, specifically mentioning the idea of a strategic digital asset stockpile,” he said. “They really are studying this issue—this isn’t just lip service. If the US does something significant with Bitcoin, it could have enormous geopolitical implications.”

Pines cautioned that policy development in Washington is slow and deliberate, particularly when it involves multiple agencies, yet he believes momentum is building: “Once the government decides to move on something like this, things can happen quickly,” he noted, “but right now, there are a lot of new officials and nominations settling in. They have to do the homework first.”

Alongside talk of a reserve, the administration has also tasked Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick and Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent to develop the framework for a US Sovereign Wealth Fund, prompting debate over whether it should include Bitcoin.

Pines described how a sovereign wealth fund could broaden support for BTC among influential sectors—such as energy, AI, and defense—since future returns on BTC might finance strategic domestic investments: “If Bitcoin is in the fund, it could align a lot of stakeholders to be pro-Bitcoin, because a rising Bitcoin price directly enhances the fund’s capacity to invest,” he explained.

Yet there remain plenty of details to iron out, not least of which is how to mitigate concerns over BTC’s volatility and how to handle potential pushback from other corners of the “crypto” sector. Pines noted there is lobbying from certain large altcoin organizations to dilute the idea of a strictly BTC reserve and push for a broader “digital asset” focus.

Commenting on the realities of lobbying and politics, Moran underscored how Bitcoiners—many of whom are staunchly anti-establishment—have had to adjust to the newfound necessity of political engagement. “If you think about it, this was always going to happen,” Moran pointed out. “Money itself is inherently political. Bitcoin represents an alternative to central banking. Of course it’s going to become a heated topic in D.C.”

In the final analysis, Pines and Moran both anticipate swift developments in how the Trump administration crafts its digital asset policies. While the exact form of a potential SBR or sovereign wealth fund remains unclear, Pines emphasized that the BPI will continue providing data-driven guidance to policymakers on Capitol Hill and within the administration:

“They really are paying serious attention to Bitcoin, and the window of opportunity to shape policy is right now,” he said. “We want to make sure that policymakers fully understand Bitcoin’s technological underpinnings, its strategic uses, and what it represents for both economic security and individual freedoms.”

Moran echoed that sentiment, underscoring the difference in how Washington now treats BTC relative to just a few years ago: “Last year, we weren’t even in the room. Today, some of the highest-ranking officials in the country own Bitcoin themselves. That changes everything,” he concluded.

At press time, BTC traded at $95,805.

Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com

The price of Bitcoin looked set to reclaim $100,000 on Friday, rallying on the back of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision to drop the lawsuit against crypto exchange Coinbase. However, the premier cryptocurrency failed to capitalize on this momentum shift following the $1.4 billion exploit of the ByBit exchange.

With the Bitcoin price now hovering above $96,000, recent on-chain data suggests that certain volatility metrics are nearing historically low levels. Here’s how the latest volatility trend could impact the BTC price performance over the coming weeks.

Is A BTC Price Rally On The Horizon?

In a recent post on the X platform, crypto analytics firm Glassnode explained how two key volatility indicators nearing historically low levels could impact the Bitcoin price and its future trajectory. The two relevant metrics here are the 1-week “realized volatility” and “options implied volatility.”

For context, realized volatility (also referred to as historical volatility) measures how much the price of an asset (BTC, in this case) has changed over a specific period. Implied volatility, on the other hand, is a metric that assesses the likelihood of future changes in an asset’s price.

According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin’s 1-week realized volatility recently dropped to 23.42%. The on-chain intelligence firm noted that the metric’s current value is close to historical lows, as BTC’s realized volatility has only fallen beneath this level a few times in the past four years.

Source: Glassnode/X

Notably, the 1-week realized volatility metric dropped to 22.88% and 21.35% in October 2024 and November 2024, respectively. These points have acted as bottoms, with the metric rebounding from this level in the past. From a historical perspective, such declines in realized volatility have preceded significant price movements, increasing the odds of a potential breakout – or even a correction.

Source: Glassnode/X

At the same time, Bitcoin’s 1-week options implied volatility has also experienced a significant decline to 37.39%. The indicator’s current level is close to multi-year lows — last seen in 2023 and early 2024. Similarly, the Bitcoin price witnessed substantial market moves the last time the implied volatility was around this level.

Moreover, it is worth noting that the longer-term options implied volatility is currently exhibiting a different trend. The 3-month implied volatility stands at around 53.1%, while the 6-month indicator is hovering at 56.25%. This suggests that market participants expect increased volatility over the coming months.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at roughly $95,340, reflecting an over 3% decline in the past 24 hours.

The price of Bitcoin on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Following a brief ascent above $99,000 on Friday, the Bitcoin market experienced a negative end to the past trading week as prices crashed below $96,000 in a sharp descent. Based on these happenings, the premier cryptocurrency remains in consolidation with little indication of its long-term price movement. Notably, blockchain analytics firm Glassnode has shared a recent network development hinting at a possible price rally.

Bitcoin At A Crossroads: Key Metric Set Could Decide Next Move

In an X post on Friday, Glassnode reports that Bitcoin’s aSOPR is at 1.01, a critical metric level that places the crypto asset in a delicate market position. Generally, an adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) is an on-chain metric that measures the profitability of Bitcoin transactions by comparing the selling price of coins to their acquisition price.

When the aSOPR is above 1, it indicates that the average Bitcoin holder is selling at a profit. Conversely, a value below one indicates that BTC is being sold at a loss. Therefore, Bitcoin’s aSOPR at 1.01 suggests that market participants are barely making profits on their transactions.

According to Glassnode, the BTC market is historically a breakeven point where further movement of the aSOPR in either direction could significantly impact price trajectory. In 2021, Bitcoin’s aSOPR reset to around 1.01 preceded a strong bull run that eventually resulted in the then new-all time of $64,800. A similar reset was also seen in late 2023 resulting in a price surge to around $69,000.

Going by these past events, if Bitcoin’s aSOPR holds above 1.01, it would suggest buyer absorption indicating a renewed market confidence in anticipation of an incoming price rally. On the other hand, if the aSOPR decline continues a break below 1.0, this development would mean sellers are offloading BTC at a loss which can signal further downward pressure.

BTC Price Outlook

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $96,300 following a significant 1.98% loss in the past day. Meanwhile, its daily trading volume has gained by 51.28% indicating an increased market interest. This increased market interest amidst price decline could be indicative of either a panic selling by concerned investors or strong accumulation by market bulls.

Based on the BTCUSDT daily chart, breaking and holding above $99,000 could mark an end to the current consolidation phase leading to a sustained price uptrend. However, a price fall below $95,000 could pave the way for all bearish possibilities with certain analysts hinting at a potential return to $76,000.

Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview