Regulation
Chicago Fed President Signals Emergency Rate Cut, Slashes Recession Concerns
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee hinted on Monday, August 5 that the central bank might react to signs of economic weakness with an emergency rate cut. Goolsbee’s remarks came in light of recent economic data suggesting that current interest rates might be too high. Moreover, the Chicago Fed President also weighed in on the possibility of a U.S. recession.
Chicago Fed President On Emergency Rate Cut
Today, Goolsbee addressed the impact of recent trends in the labor market and manufacturing sector on Federal Reserve policy. He acknowledged that the current economic indicators, including a weaker-than-expected jobs report, might necessitate a reassessment of the Fed’s policy stance. However, he did not commit to any specific actions, leaving the door open for various policy adjustments.
“The Fed’s job is very straightforward, maximize employment, stabilize prices, and maintain financial stability,” Goolsbee stated. He added, “That’s what we’re going to do.” He emphasized that the central bank’s approach would be forward-looking, according to a CNBC interview.
Goolsbee also suggested that any deterioration in economic conditions would prompt a response. “If the conditions collectively start coming in like that on the through line, there’s deterioration on any of those parts, we’re going to fix it,” he added.
This data triggered the Sahm Rule signal, which historically has been an indicator of a potential recession. Despite these signals, Goolsbee was cautious about jumping to conclusions. “Jobs numbers came in weaker than expected, but not looking yet like recession,” he said.
The U.S. Fed has maintained its benchmark interest rate in the range of 5.25% to 5.5% since July 2023, a level not seen in over two decades. Goolsbee noted that this rate might now be considered restrictive, a stance typically justified only if the economy is overheating. He said:
“Should we reduce restrictiveness? I’m not going to bind our hands of what should happen going forward, because we’re still going to get more information. But if we are not overheating, we should not be tightening or restrictive in real terms.”
Also Read: Is A Fed Rate Cut Ahead? Experts Warn It May Escalate Market Bloodbath
Market Expects 50 Bps Cut Today
Goolsbee’s comments come amidst a backdrop of significant market movements. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped nearly 1,300 points, or close to 3%, as Treasury yields fell sharply. This decline followed the Federal Reserve’s decision last week to maintain interest rates.
It raises concerns among investors that the central bank might be lagging in its policy adjustments as inflation eases and the economy shows signs of weakness. The Labor Department’s recent report revealed an increase of just 114,000 nonfarm payrolls and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%.
The real fed funds rate, which is the difference between the Fed’s benchmark rate and the inflation rate, has increased as inflation declines. Currently, this rate stands around 2.73%, compared to the Fed’s long-term estimate of 0.5%.
Investors are now anticipating that the Fed will implement an aggressive easing policy starting today with a 50 bps cut. According to 30-day fed funds futures contracts, a 0.5 percentage point rate cut is fully priced in.
Also, projections indicate that the Fed could reduce the funds rate by 1.25 to 1.5 percentage points by the end of the year. While Goolsbee did not specify whether an emergency rate cut would be considered, he indicated that all options remain on the table.
“Everything is always on the table including raises and cuts,” he stated. Furthermore, according to Polymarket, the odds of an emergency rate cut by the U.S. Fed has surged to 55%. On the contrary, market experts like Peter Schiff and Scott Melker caution an expedited downturn in case of an emergency rate cut. It could negatively affect the crypto market and other global stock markets.
Also Read: Breaking: US Fed Calls Emergency Meeting As Japan Markets Collapse
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
Regulation
Polymarket Faces French Ban After Massive Bets On US Election Results
Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, is likely to be prohibited by France’s gambling regulator, the ANJ, after a huge amount of bets were placed on the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Since the global audience engaged in prediction platforms, Polymarket experienced a record jump, with $450 million expected to be distributed to users following the victory of Donald Trump.
This increase of betting volume and large stakes has become a matter of concern for the French regulator because the platform offers unlicensed gambling services.
$450 Million in Payouts Expected After U.S. Election Bets
Prediction markets, which are expected to increase their payout to election bettors to around $450m following Donald Trump’s projected win, are attracting increasing attention.
Although conventional polls pointed to a closer contest, prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi recorded a steep rise in Trump’s chances in the last few days, indicating a strong divergence with poll-based expectations.
Among the active users of Polymarket, a French trader called “Theo” made a $26 million bet on Trump’s win and won $49 million. This big bet made Polymarket popular, as the French authorities paid attention to the platform and its popularity among French residents, which led to concerns about the compliance of the platform with French gambling legislation.
France’s ANJ Considers Blocking Access to Polymarket
The ANJ has claimed that Polymarket is involved in gambling which is only allowed in France by licensed operators. According to local media, the regulator has the power to ban access to unlicensed gambling sites and is expected to restrict access to Polymarket soon.
An ANJ insider said: “Polymarket is just betting on something that is completely uncertain, which is exactly what gambling is.”
If put in place, the ban would prevent the usage of the application in France, despite the fact that users can still try to avoid the restriction by connecting to VPN. The ANJ could also try to influence media outlets and directories to stop advertising or linking to Polymarket and, thus, limit its audiences even more.
Regulatory Concerns Over Market Manipulation
The high level of activity on Polymarket has led to speculations that the platform may be used for market manipulation. Two blockchain analysis firms, Chaos Labs and Inca Digital, recently revealed that there was potential wash trading within Polymarket’s U.S. presidential betting market where the same assets are bought and sold to simply create a fake market. This type of trading is rather manipulative and can lead to the distortion of signals on the market and mislead other participants.
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission also has concerns about prediction markets and put forward a rule in May aiming at stricter regulation of such markets due to the potential for manipulation.
Although no final decision has been reached, regulatory actions could impact Polymarket’s ability to operate freely in other markets, including the U.S.
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
Regulation
FTX Co Founder Gary Wang Appeals For No Jail Time, Here’s Why
FTX co-founder Gary Wang has requested a federal judge not to send him to prison. He noted that he is testifying against the former business partner, Sam Bankman-Fried, someone he has known for a long time in a fraud case.
The lawyer for Wang submitted a sentencing memo in Manhattan federal court wherein he claimed that his client should not be incarcerated as he provided assistance to the prosecutors as well as his role in the scheme was comparatively less.
Wang, who pleaded guilty to fraud and conspiracy when FTX went bankrupt in 2022, is to receive his sentencing on the 20th of November.
FTX Co-Founder Gary Wang Appeals for No Jail Time
The defense counsel for FTX co-founder Gary Wang highlighted his client’s early cooperation with the federal prosecutors as one of the key reasons why the court should consider him for mercy. According to Graff, Wang was one of the first FTX executives to meet with the authorities and share information on the FTX and Alameda Research. Wang gave a testimony in the trial that led to the recent conviction of Bankman-Fried who was sentenced to 25 years in prison.
Speaking at the trial, Wang described how he was ordered to change the code of FTX in order to enable Alameda Research to use the assets of the company’s clients, which is one of the key points of Bankman-Fried’s fraud.
FTX co-founder’s lawyer noted that his involvement in the fraud was less than some of the other former executives, including Caroline Ellison, former CEO of Alameda Research, and Nishad Singh, FTX’s former head of engineering. Wang, his lawyer said, did not start or operate the scheme and was not personally involved in the provision of false information to the investors.
“Gary was not involved in the scheme at its inception, was never provided with details of the scheme, and, in contrast to Bankman-Fried, Ellison and Singh, never engaged in any affirmative action of deception,” Graff wrote.
Sentencing Comparisons to Other Executives
Wang’s attorney argued that a prison sentence would create an “unwarranted sentencing disparity” with Nishad Singh, who avoided jail time after pleading guilty and cooperating with the government. Singh, who faced potential decades-long sentences, was ultimately sentenced to time served and three years of supervised release.
Ellison, another major cooperator, received a two-year prison sentence. FTX co-founder Gary Wang contended that Wang’s level of involvement was even lower than Singh’s, supporting a non-custodial sentence for Wang as well.
Graff also noted Wang’s personal circumstances, stating that Wang is expecting the birth of his first child shortly after his sentencing date. Wang’s attorney suggested that allowing him to remain with his family would align with the court’s treatment of other cooperators in the case.
“Gary wants nothing more than to be a good husband and father and to continue his work to facilitate FTX victims’ recovery,” Graff wrote.
Separately, the U.S. government is working to reclaim approximately $13.25 million in political donations made by FTX executives, including Bankman-Fried and Singh. Judge Lewis Kaplan however granted the government additional time to negotiate the return of these funds, extending discussions with the PACs until January 15, 2025.
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
Regulation
US SEC Files Motion for Judgment Against Kraken, Challenges Key Defenses
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has filed a motion seeking judgment in its case against cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, focusing on defenses such as “fair notice” and the “major questions doctrine.”
This move, led by SEC Chairman Gary Gensler’s team, aims to limit further discovery into the agency’s regulatory policies, particularly those affecting the crypto sector. The timing of the filing has drawn attention, as some in the industry view it as a strategic attempt to shield the SEC’s methods from closer examination.
US SEC Files Motion for Judgment Against Kraken
The SEC’s motion seeks to dismiss defenses put forward by Kraken that include the fair notice defense and the major questions doctrine. The fair notice defense argues that Kraken did not receive adequate regulatory guidance regarding its crypto-related activities.
Meanwhile, the major questions doctrine suggests that regulatory agencies, such as the SEC, should not make major policy decisions without clear direction from Congress.
Subsequently, the US SEC’s motion appears intended to prevent further discovery into its policies, which Kraken and other crypto advocates have criticized as inconsistent and unclear. A similar motion was filed in Ripple case, where the US SEC failed to secure a judgment. Michael O’Connor, an attorney representing Kraken expects a similar outcome in the Kraken case, though Kraken has indicated that it has additional defenses should this motion proceed.
This Is A Breaking News, Please Check Back For More
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
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