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Crypto Volatility Expected as US Releases Key Economic Data

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The crypto market’s correlation with key macroeconomic events has returned after dissipating for most of 2023. With the influence back on, crypto market participants must brace for volatility with key releases lined up this week.

In a sentiment-driven market, getting ahead of market-moving economic data releases is critical for traders and investors looking to revise their trading strategies.

What Could Cause Market Volatility This Week

Four events will be of interest to crypto market players this week. They include:

US Economic Calendar
US Economic Calendar. Source: MarketWatch

S&P Final US Services PMI

Traders will watch the S&P Global Services PMI on Monday, which is compiled by the S&P Global. Sectors covered include consumer (excluding retail), transport and information, communication, finance, insurance, real estate, and business services.

In July, the S&P Global Services PMI beat expectations of 55, rising to 56 points, higher than June’s 55.3. This indicates expansion in the services sector, a positive sign for traditional markets, showing higher service demand.

US Trade Deficit

Markets also await the US trade deficit on Tuesday, which could cause TradFi and crypto volatility this week. Like the S&P Services PMI, the country’s trade deficit also pointed to increased services in June and more car exports. 

The two positive data points to sharp increases in business inflows, reaching their quickest pace in over a year.

“The US is transitioning to a services economy, less manufacturing,” Lumida Wealth CEO Ram Ahluwalia said over positive services data.

Read more: How to Protect Yourself From Inflation Using Cryptocurrency

These lead to increased investment opportunities and improved economic conditions, boosting sentiment in traditional markets like stocks. The impact may not be as direct or significant on crypto compared to traditional markets. However, if the positive trajectory continues, capital could rotate into risk-on assets like crypto.

Positive economic data often influences investor sentiment in the crypto space. As traditional markets strengthen, investors may become more confident in the economy. This could increase risk appetite and lead to greater interest in alternative assets like cryptocurrencies.

Consumer Credit

The US Consumer Credit data for June will be released on Wednesday, July 7. The data reports outstanding credit extended to individuals. The data helps measure conditions in consumer credit markets and analyze the effects of monetary policy. In May’s report, released on July 8, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.7%. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 6.3%, while non-revolving credit also increased at an annual rate of 1.4%.

The increase in consumer credit indicates that consumers are borrowing and spending more. In traditional finance markets, this is a positive sign for the economy. It suggests consumers are more confident about their financial situation, which explains the willingness to take on debt to make purchases.

If authorities report a similar trend in June, it would stimulate economic activity and drive corporate earnings, leading to higher stock prices. Nevertheless, there is a risk associated with higher consumer credit levels. If consumers become overleveraged and struggle to repay their debts, it could lead to defaults and financial instability.

This could negatively affect traditional finance markets by increasing volatility and investor uncertainty. Crypto, on the other hand, could benefit indirectly from the implied stronger overall economy. Increased economic stability and consumer activity could attract investors to alternative assets like cryptocurrencies.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin’s Speech

The Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will speak on Thursday, August 8, giving insight into policymakers’ thinking and potentially inspiring traditional market and crypto volatility. He will also comment on what recent economic reports mean for future action from the central bank. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25%—5.50% for the eighth consecutive meeting.

Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve (Fed) chair, did not explicitly signal a September rate cut. He demonstrated increasing but cautious optimism about disinflation progress resuming in the second half of 2024.

“He is clearly expecting a correction of some kind or otherwise simply cannot see better investments than Treasury bills. The Fed needs to drop rates. They have been foolish not to have done so already,” X CEO Elon Musk said in a Sunday post.

Musk’s comments came following a lackluster jobs report last week, which raised concerns about an economic slowdown. Meanwhile, Wall Street banks advocate for aggressive interest rate cuts amid evidence that the labor market is cooling. Citigroup economists Veronica Clark and Andrew Hollenhorst, for example, anticipate “half-point rate cuts in September and November and a quarter-point cut in December.”

JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli echoed Clark and Hollenhorst, adding that there’s “a strong case to act” before the next meeting on September 18. According to Feroli, Powell may not “want to add more noise to what has already been an event-filled summer.”

Macro Data Drives Crypto Sell-Off

Meanwhile, crypto volatility has markets bleeding, with the total market capitalization down a stark 12%. Bitcoin is down 12.35%, trading for $53,000 at the time of writing, while Ethereum lost 20%.

Some ascribe the crash to the Japanese stock market suffering its worst losses since 1987. Market analyst Zach Jones associates the crash with Japan defending its Yen currency and dumping all of its Treasury Holdings (US-owned debt).

“Japan created an everything bubble in the 80’s/90’s. The bubble got so big that in the 30-40 years since their stock market has never gotten close to the highs of the bubble. The US economy has a 122% debt to GDP ratio which is insane. Japan has doubled that. They were between a rock and a hard place, either letting their currency collapse and experience a Great Depression-esque collapse or printing money and hyperinflating their currency. They chose to print hundreds of billions of dollars per day to defend their currency. This has been an inevitability to anyone who pays attention to markets,” Jones wrote.

Read more: How To Buy Bitcoin (BTC) and Everything You Need To Know

Elsewhere, Republic ticket nominee for the November elections, Donald Trump, blames the recent financial markets crash on Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, and “inept US leadership.”

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Marathon Digital Raises $1B to Expand Bitcoin Holdings

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Marathon Digital Holdings, one of the largest Bitcoin miners, has completed a record $1 billion offering of 0% convertible senior notes due 2030. The net proceeds from the sale were approximately $980 million.

According to the firm’s statement, the net proceeds will be primarily used to buy Bitcoin

Marathon Digital Holds over $2.5 Billion Worth of Bitcoin

After its last purchase in September, Marathon Digital’s Bitcoin holdings stand at 25,945 BTC. This is currently worth approximately $2.52 billion, as Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $98,000 earlier today. 

However, the company’s decision to expand its holdings potentially points to a larger bullish cycle for the token in the long term. According to its press release, Marathon Digital plans to use $199 million of the net proceeds to repurchase existing convertible notes due 2026. 

The remainder will be used to acquire additional Bitcoin and for general corporate purposes. Marathon Digital is currently the second largest Bitcoin holder among publicly traded companies. 

marathon digital bitcoin holdings
Bitcoin Holdings by Public Companies. Source: CoinGecko

The notes offer flexibility, with options for conversion into cash, shares of Marathon’s common stock, or a combination of both. Redemption terms include the ability for the company to redeem the notes at full principal value plus accrued interest. 

“$1 Billion. 0% interest. MARA has completed the largest convertible notes offering ever amongst BTC miners. The mission, as always: Provide value. Acquire #bitcoin,” the company wrote on X (formerly Twitter). 

Increasing Bitcoin Acquisition Among Public Firms 

Marathon Digital is following an ongoing trend of public companies increasing their Bitcoin holdings in this bull market.  Earlier this week, MicroStrategy announced plans to issue $1.75 billion in convertible notes maturing in 2029. The proceeds will be used to fund additional Bitcoin purchases. 

On the same day, the company secured $4.6 billion worth of Bitcoin, building on a $2 billion acquisition from the prior week. 

Bitcoin’s all-time high and these aggressive purchases propelled MicroStrategy’s stock price by nearly 120% in a single month. The largest Bitcoin holder also entered the list of top 100 public companies in the US. 

Meanwhile, Marathon Digital has faced challenges despite its growing Bitcoin reserves. The company reported a $125 million net loss in Q3. This was driven by a $92 million year-over-year increase in operating costs. 

However, its operational capacity has strengthened. Earlier this month, its energized hash rate surged by 93%, signaling increased mining efficiency. Marathon Digital also signed an $80 million agreement with the Keynan government to expand its Bitcoin mining capabilities. 

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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cbBTC Surges Past $1 Billion as Coinbase Ends WBTC Support

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Coinbase, the largest US-based crypto exchange, has announced it will suspend trading for Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) on December 19, 2024, at approximately 12 p.m. ET.

The decision, revealed in a post on X (formerly Twitter), cites a routine review of its listed assets to ensure compliance with listing standards. 

Coinbase Sidesteps WBTC Amid cbBTC Boom

The suspension will apply to both Coinbase Exchange and Coinbase Prime. Although trading will cease, WBTC holders will retain full access to their funds and the ability to withdraw them at any time. In preparation for the transition, Coinbase has moved WBTC trading to a limit-only mode, where users can place and cancel limit orders while matches may still occur.

“Coinbase will suspend trading for WBTC (WBTC) on December 19, 2024, at or around 12 pm ET. Your WBTC funds will remain accessible to you, and you will continue to have the ability to withdraw your funds at any time. We have moved our WBTC order books to limit-only mode. Limit orders can be placed and canceled, and matches may occur,” Coinbase detailed.

Coinbase’s move to suspend WBTC comes amid the rapid success of its wrapped Bitcoin token, cbBTC. Recently, cbBTC surpassed a $1 billion market capitalization, reflecting growing adoption and trust within the crypto community. This milestone has further cemented cbBTC’s position as a strong competitor to WBTC in the decentralized finance (DeFi) space.

oinbase’s cbBTC Bitcoin Wrapper Supply and Market Cap Chart
Coinbase’s cbBTC Bitcoin Wrapper Supply and Market Cap Chart. Source: Dune

As of this writing, data on Dune shows that cbBTC market capitalization has increased to $1.44 billion. CBTC’s native availability on networks like Solana, Ethereum, and Base has significantly expanded its accessibility, with Arbitrum being the latest addition.

“cbBTC is live on Arbitrum. cbBTC is an ERC-20 token that is backed 1:1 by Bitcoin (BTC) held by Coinbase. It is natively available on Arbitrum and securely accessible to more users across the Ethereum ecosystem,” Coinbase shared on Tuesday.

Additionally, prominent DeFi protocol Aave is targeting cbBTC for its Version 3 (V3) platform, enhancing its utility within the ecosystem. This growing momentum may have played a key role in Coinbase’s decision to phase out WBTC trading.

WBTC Core Team Urge Coinbase to Reconsider

The team behind Wrapped Bitcoin expressed regret and surprise at Coinbase’s decision. In a statement on X, WBTC’s core team emphasized its commitment to compliance, transparency, and decentralization. 

“We regret and are surprised by Coinbase’s decision to delist WBTC…We urge Coinbase to reconsider this decision and continue supporting WBTC trading,” the team said.

The statement outlined WBTC’s longstanding reputation for novel mechanisms, regulatory compliance, and decentralized governance. Highlighting its seamless integration with DeFi protocols, WBTC described itself as an essential liquidity solution for Bitcoin users. Urging Coinbase to reconsider, WBTC reaffirmed its readiness to address any concerns or provide additional information to support its case.

Meanwhile, Coinbase’s announcement has sparked mixed reactions across the crypto community. Some users criticized the exchange, suggesting the decision reflects an inability to handle competition.

“Coinbase can’t handle fair competition?? WBTC superior to cbBTC” said Gally Sama in a post.

Nevertheless, others support the move, citing concerns over WBTC’s custody model, with one user referencing BitGo’s recent adoption of a multi-jurisdictional custody system.

“You put custody in the hands of a fraud. What did you think was gonna happen?” the user expressed.

This critique aligns with growing fears about Justin Sun’s involvement in WBTC’s custody processes, as BeInCrypto reported recently. Some users have acted preemptively to avoid potential risks, with one commenter sharing their reservations.  

“When Sun got on the multisig for WBTC, I sent all my WBTC on OP to Coinbase and exchanged for true BTC that I withdrew to my hardware wallet… You gave me confirmation just now that I made the right move,” they wrote.

The decision to suspend WBTC trading could mark a pivotal moment in the competition between wrapped Bitcoin solutions. While cbBTC’s integration across multiple blockchain networks has gained momentum, skepticism surrounding WBTC’s custody model and leadership has intensified.

Justin Sun has voiced criticism of Coinbase’s cbBTC strategy, labeling it a setback for Bitcoin’s broader adoption. As the debate continues, the industry watches closely to see whether Coinbase’s cbBTC will solidify its dominance or if WBTC can regain its position as a leading wrapped Bitcoin solution. Regardless, the shifting dynamics reflect the importance of transparency, governance, and community trust in shaping the future of DeFi.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Bitcoin Faces ‘Bank Run’ Risk, Cyber Capital’s Bons Warns

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Bitcoin (BTC) may be at risk of a catastrophic “bank run,” according to Justin Bons, founder and CIO of Cyber Capital.  

A bank run is when customers withdraw their deposits from a financial institution over fears of insolvency. 

Bitcoin Cannot Handle Mass Exits, Bons Says

In a detailed social media thread, Bons highlighted critical flaws in Bitcoin’s transaction capacity, self-custody model, and network security. In his opinion, these could lead to a crisis that would destabilize the network and devastate investors. 

Bons’ analysis centers on Bitcoin’s limited transaction processing capability, which he calculated at approximately seven transactions per second (TPS). Using data from Glassnode and Bitcoin’s code, he argued that Bitcoin’s 33 million on-chain users would face a bottleneck if a mass panic triggered simultaneous exits. 

“At this rate, the queue would be 1.82 months long under optimal conditions. However, in reality, transactions would get stuck and eventually be dropped, making it impossible for smaller parties to exit unless they pay exorbitant fees,” Bons explained.

Bons warned that this limitation could lead to a “death spiral,” where a price crash forces miners to shut down, slowing the network further. The resulting delays could deepen the panic, creating a vicious cycle of declining hash rates, prolonged block times, and falling prices. 

Further in his critique of BTC, Bons claimed Bitcoin’s transaction capacity is insufficient for real-world use. He compared Bitcoin’s 7 TPS to other systems, such as Visa’s 5,000 TPS, or even competitors in the crypto space that exceed 10,000 TPS without sacrificing decentralization. 

“There are literally ZERO use cases that can be supported by 7 TPS. Mass self-custody over BTC is a dangerous narrative. The only scalable path forward for BTC adoption is through centralized custodians and banks, contradicting its ethos as ‘freedom money’,” he stated.  

Bons also questioned Bitcoin’s long-term sustainability, citing its shrinking security budget. This, in his opinion, is a critical issue that could exacerbate the risks he outlined. The thread also touches on Bitcoin’s deviation from its original vision as “peer-to-peer (P2P) electronic cash.” He lamented that the network’s constraints and governance have turned it into a speculative asset rather than a practical medium of exchange. 

Bons’ remarks ignited a heated debate on X (formerly Twitter). Patrick Flanagan, a self-described tech expert, dismissed the claims.

“This is pure fantasy. If this was going to occur, it would have occurred years ago,” Flanagan argued.

Bons rebutted, asserting that the risk increases as the number of users grows. He noted that even a fraction of users leaving could trigger a run and added that the larger the network gets, the more severe the problem becomes.

Other users highlighted potential alternatives, such as trading wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) on Ethereum, which bypasses Bitcoin’s base layer limitations. Bons acknowledged this but noted that wrapped BTC users could exit quickly while on-chain users would be trapped, exacerbating the sell-off.  The discussion also extended to Bitcoin’s self-custody model.

“This is something that self-custody advocates should pay attention to. One tiny bit of FUD and everyone gets their money stuck,” DashPay’s Joel Venezuela remarked.

Bons responded, acknowledging the difficult position he finds himself in as a cypherpunk and self-custody advocate. Another user raised a comparison to gold, questioning how long it would take to liquidate global gold holdings. Bons countered that while gold also has practical limits, its theoretical transaction capacity far exceeds Bitcoin’s, making it less susceptible to such bottlenecks. 

Critics of Bons’ analysis argue that Bitcoin has weathered similar concerns in the past without collapsing. However, his warning adds to a growing chorus of voices calling for a reevaluation of Bitcoin’s scalability and usability. 

Despite his grim outlook for Bitcoin, Bons remains optimistic about the broader cryptocurrency space. “There is much hope left for cryptocurrency as a whole,” he concluded, suggesting that Bitcoin’s original ethos now thrives in other blockchain projects. 

Meanwhile, while Bitcoin remains the dominant cryptocurrency, debates over its scalability and resilience continue. Bons’ warning serves as a stark reminder of the challenges Bitcoin faces as it seeks broader adoption in a changing financial space. Elsewhere, Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz has almost similar reservations about a Bitcoin reserve in the US.

“I think that it would be very smart for the United States to take the Bitcoin they have and maybe add some to it… I don’t necessarily think that the dollar needs anything to back it up,” Novogratz claimed.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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