Regulation
European Central Bank Braces For Two More Rate Cuts, Is US Fed Next?
The European Central Bank (ECB) is preparing for two more rate cuts, as revealed by ECB policymaker Yannis Stournaras. Hence, netizens are speculating whether the U.S. Federal Reserve would mirror a similar move in September. As of the latest update, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep rates steady.
European Central Bank To Cut Interest Rates
The ECB rate cut prediction, shared in an interview with the German financial newsletter Platow Brief, reflects the central bank’s concerns over a weakening euro zone economy. This could potentially drag inflation below its 2% target.
Stournaras serves as the head of the Bank of Greece and is considered one of the more dovish members of the ECB’s Governing Council. He highlighted the lower-than-expected economic growth and its implications for inflation. “The renewed signs of weak economic activity and the high level of uncertainty will very likely dampen inflation more than had been expected,” he stated, according to a Bloomberg report.
The statement suggests a significant risk of inflation falling below the ECB’s target in the medium term. Despite a slight uptick in euro zone inflation for July and growth for the second quarter, traders anticipate that the ECB will resume lowering borrowing costs by September or October.
Furthermore, this outlook is reinforced by ongoing surveys pointing to a deceleration in economic activity. Stournaras supported this expectation. However, he noted that forthcoming data, particularly on wages, and the ECB’s new economic projections, will be critical in shaping future decisions.
“I still expect two rate cuts this year if disinflation continues as expected,” he remarked. This underscores the delicate balance the ECB must maintain. Earlier, European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points on July 6, 2024.
US Fed To Mirror Move?
The ECB’s approach contrasts with recent developments at the US Federal Reserve. The Fed has opted to maintain its key interest rate within the range of 5.25% to 5.5%. This decision was driven by their urge to meet the 2% inflation target. U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that a rate cut in September remains a possibility amid favorable inflation data.
“We never use our tools to support or oppose a political party, a politician, or any political outcome,” Powell emphasized. Meanwhile, recent U.S. job data presents a mixed picture of the economic arena. According to the data released on August 1, Initial jobless claims rose by 14,000 to 249,000 for the week ending July 27.
Whilst, continuing claims increased by 33,000 to 1,877,000 for the week ending July 20. These figures suggest a cooling labor market, which could influence the U.S. Fed’s decision-making process. If the job market continues to show signs of weakness, it might boost the case for a rate cut in the near term.
Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, the Bank of England recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points, moving them from 5.25% to 5.0%. This decision followed a narrow vote margin of 5:4. It marks the first such interest rate cut since the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2020.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey cited eased inflationary pressures as the rationale for the rate cut. “Inflationary pressures have eased enough that we’ve been able to cut interest rates today,” he noted. However, Bailey also stressed the need for caution in further rate reductions to maintain low and stable inflation.
Potential Impact On Bitcoin, Gold & Stocks
The potential for rate cuts by major central banks carries significant implications for various markets. In the crypto sector, the prospect of increased liquidity is seen as a positive development. Bitcoin, which currently trades around $64,700, saw a slight decrease of 2% but remains sensitive to changes in monetary policy.
Lower interest rates can enhance the appeal of cryptocurrencies as alternative investments, driving more capital into the domain. Also, the latest US job data could further impact the crypto market. For context, weakening labor market might prompt the Fed to lower rates. It potentially leads to increased liquidity and investment in riskier assets, including the cryptocurrency market.
Investors often view digital currencies as a hedge against traditional financial instability, and increased liquidity could encourage this sentiment. Gold, traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation, could also experience increased demand if central banks proceed with rate cuts.
Reduced interest rates typically lower the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. This makes such assets more attractive to investors seeking stability in uncertain economic times. However, the stock market’s response to anticipated rate cuts may be mixed.
Reduced borrowing costs can boost corporate profits and investor sentiment toward the stock market. However, the reasons for the rate cuts, such as weak economic growth and uncertainty, may negatively impact market enthusiasm.
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
Regulation
CFTC Appeals Decision Favoring Kalshi On Election Betting Contracts
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is challenging a recent court decision that would allow prediction market platform Kalshi to offer contracts related to U.S. election outcomes. The ongoing legal battle has raised concerns about the integrity of election betting and the extent of the CFTC’s regulatory authority.
Court Hearing Pits CFTC Against Kalshi
At a hearing before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, CFTC General Counsel Rob Schwartz and Kalshi’s counsel Yaakov Roth argued as to why the firm should be allowed to operate political prediction markets. The hearing was held after a district court decision that said the CFTC cannot stop it from offering contracts based on which party will control both the houses of the Congress.
Soon after the decision, the CFTC went for an application for a temporary stay which was granted by the appeals court.
Appeals court judge: “is there any evidence, as opposed to ‘reason to believe’ or hypothesizing … that short term manipulations of election betting markets do affect election process or outcome?”
CFTC gc: “I don’t have that.”Hearing in Kalshi case: https://t.co/2mPz6P2M7F
— m/arc 🧭 (@MarcHochstein) September 19, 2024
The three judges, Patricia Millett, Cornelia Pillard and Florence Pan, challenged both the arguments and appeared rather skeptical of the reasoning provided. The judges questioned the CFTC about its view on the Commodity Exchange Act, as well as the consequences of permitting the opportunity to place a bet on the electoral outcome.
Concerns Over Market Manipulation and Election Integrity
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s concerns included threats to market integrity and manipulation of election-related prediction markets. Schwartz pointed out that the political prediction markets are more susceptible to false information and manipulation as compared to other event markets.
He stated that permitting these contracts could lead to misperceptions among the public and thus erode the already weak confidence in the U. S. elections, particularly during a time when more citizens doubt the validity of the electoral system.
Schwartz also noted that while traditional futures contracts are based on factual and accurate information, political markets could be skewed by fake polls, fake news, and other agenda-driven media. He noted that the CFTC cannot adequately monitor these underlying events and therefore it remains challenging to promote fairness and transparency in the markets.
Kalshi Defends Market Viability and Regulatory Compliance
Kalshi’s attorney, Yaakov Roth, pushed back against the concerns surrounding Kalshi’s compliance measures, noting that regulated prediction markets are more transparent and provide more oversight than less regulated foreign platforms. Roth argued that markets that are supported by a robust and comprehensive legal regime are less likely to be manipulated than the unregulated foreign markets that Kalshi seeks to compete with, while operating in a regulated environment.
According to Roth, the firm has also incorporated ‘Know Your Customer’ measures to ascertain that only approved market players transact and recommended that there should be a local regulated market to overcome the dependency on overseas markets with less transparency. He maintained that permitting these regulated prediction markets would offer better protection to the participants and minimize the chances of distortion by foreign elements.
Hence, in the upcoming 2024 U. S. elections, the appeals court is expected to make a ruling as soon as possible. The CFTC has been working on a regulation that is likely to prohibit the trading on political events as the commission says that such contracts are detrimental to the public interest. Legal experts have argued that the courts or the legislature may have to step in and offer guidance on the future of election-related prediction markets.
CFTC Chairperson Rostin Behnam has also expressed concerns over the likelihood of the financial regulator being involved in election contracts, saying that such actions may be outside the scope of the agency.
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
Regulation
Coinbase CLO Debunks SEC Crypto Asset Security Claims Before Gensler Hearing
Coinbase CLO Paul Grewal and Ripple CLO have challenged the SEC’s terminology of “crypto asset security,” a term increasingly used by the regulatory agency. His criticism comes at a time when the SEC is under pressure for coming up with this term yet there is no law in the United States that supports it.
The issue has gained much attention especially given that the SEC Chair, Gary Gensler and all the five SEC Commissioners are expected to appear before the House Financial Services Committee in a hearing.
Coinbase CLO Questions SEC’s Use of “Crypto Asset Security”
Grewal posted on X to comment that the term “crypto asset security” is not uniform or well-established in the SEC enforcement measures. The Coinbase CLO also noted that the SEC has been inconsistent in its treatment of tokens as securities and as investment contracts in different legal contexts.
It’s also never been “consistently maintained” by @SECGov as it claims as referring to broader investment contract transactions. Again and again they’ve argued that these are the tokens themselves— exactly the opposite of what they’ve told a federal court. https://t.co/tUAzQCSa0W
— paulgrewal.eth (@iampaulgrewal) September 19, 2024
Such allegations come as Rep. Ritchie Torres, a New York Congressman, has made similar concerns earlier this month during a congressional hearing and challenged the SEC’sterminology.
The term ‘digital asset security’ or ‘crypto asset security’ is also not found in any law, regulation or Supreme Court judgement which adds to the criticism from the proponents of blockchain and lawmakers. Some of the legal scholars have also opined that the SEC made up the term without any statutory backing, including Daniel Gallagher, the Chief Legal Officer at Robinhood.
Ripple’s Legal Officer Joins the Criticism
Ripple CLO, Stuart Alderoty, also shared similar sentiments with the Coinbase CLO, saying that the SEC is taking advantage of the terminology used in the court. Alderoty noted that the SEC’s continued reference to “crypto asset security” in legal documents has begun to raise pushback.
For instance, the SEC recently apologized for using the term in the complaint against Binance, acknowledging that its use was misleading.
This critique comes at a time when Ripple is still in a legal tussle with the SEC over the status of XRP as a security. Alderoty argued that the SEC’s inconsistencies are eroding its capability to be convincing in the courts.
SEC Under Scrutiny Ahead of Congressional Testimony
Next week, all five SEC Commissioners, including Chair Gary Gensler, will testify before the House Financial Services Committee, which is the first time since 2019 when the whole commission will stand before Congress. This hearing comes in the backdrop of a growing sentiment among legislators and industry participants who have accused the SEC of having a hostile approach towards blockchain technology.
Some of the key concerns have been expressed by House Majority Whip Tom Emmer and Chairman Patrick McHenry regarding the SEC’s stance on regulating crypto airdrops that they consider crucial for decentralizing blockchain networks. Some of them directly accused the agency of brushing up the issues asserting that its regulation model inaptly fits the growing digital asset sector.
Apart from Coinbase CLO and Ripple CLO challenging the legal direction of the SEC, Gensler faces the probe over allegations of Illegal hiring at the company. This probe may complicate his upcoming hearings before the House Financial Services Committee where he is likely to face questions not only about the SEC’s stance to digital assets but also concerning the agency’s management.
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
Regulation
Texas Court Dismisses Consensys Suit Against SEC on Procedural Basis
The United States District Court for the Northern District of Texas dismissed Consensys Software Inc.‘s case against the Securities and Exchange Commission. This was after a long legal battle to determine the status of Ethereum and other similar software products.
Texas Court Ends Consensys Suit Against SEC
The U.S. District Court in Fort Worth has thrown out the allegations made by Consensys against the Securities and Exchange Commission in a recent legal move. The court, presided over by Judge Reed O’Connor, ruled on procedural grounds. The judge determined the claims concerning Ethereum classification and the regulatory approach to MetaMask were not ripe for judicial review. This decision effectively puts an end to the current litigation initiated by Consensys in April of this year.
The dismissal focused particularly on the lack of final agency action from the SEC, which the court noted was a requisite for a substantial legal challenge. This procedural dismissal indicates that despite the issues raised, the court decided not to proceed with evaluating the merits of the case.
Legal Battle Over Ethereum and MetaMask
Initially, Consensys challenged the SEC’s classification of Ethereum and its derivatives as securities. The complaint highlighted concerns over the SEC’s focus on MetaMask, a software service provided by Consensys that facilitates crypto transactions and staking.
Despite an earlier notification in June about the SEC dropping its investigation into Ethereum, the broader implications of this regulatory scrutiny remained a contentious issue.
Subsequent to the initial lawsuit, the SEC initiated a separate enforcement action in June, accusing Consensys of operating its MetaMask swaps service without proper registration.
In addition, according to Judge O’Connor, this case lacked the necessary finality from the Securities and Exchange Commission side to be considered ready for court adjudication.
Reactions and Future Regulatory Steps
The court’s decision to dismiss on procedural grounds does not conclude the legal issues surrounding the regulation of Ethereum and other blockchain technologies.
More so, Consensys has expressed its intention to continue advocating for blockchain developers and to challenge the SEC’s actions in other jurisdictions, indicating that the struggle over crypto regulation in the U.S. is far from over. The case’s dismissal in Texas does not preclude the blockchain company from pursuing other legal avenues to address their grievances.
In addition, most recently, a US Bankruptcy judge Brendan Shannon approved Terraform Labs plan to liquidate its assets following an ongoing SEC lawsuit.
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
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