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Mt. Gox Is Far From Done With Distributing Bitcoin, Here’s How Much BTC Is Left

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Many Mt. Gox creditors have finally been repaid their Bitcoin (BTC) after a decade of waiting. News reports have shown many creditors have been repaid through the US-based crypto exchange Kraken. As expected, the news of more BTC potentially flooding the market has led to concerns about its effects on the price of Bitcoin. Analysts and investors alike have expressed concerns that the influx of Bitcoin into the market could result in increased selling pressure, potentially driving down the price of the cryptocurrency.

However, data reports have shown many of the repaid creditors are opting to hold their assets rather than selling them. This trend reflects a prevailing bullish sentiment among these BTC holders, who appear confident in the long-term potential of the cryptocurrency. 

Despite the bullish mentality, on-chain data suggests Mt. Gov still has enough BTC to potentially flood the market. According to Arkham Intelligence, the defunct exchange still has over 80,000 BTC, which is valued at approximately $5.37 billion at the current price of Bitcoin.

Analyzing Mt. Gox’s Bitcoin Holdings

Bitcoin is not out of the woods yet from the hands of Mt. Gox. As shown by Arkham’s dashboard, Mt Gox’s BTC holding has fallen from 142,000 BTC at the start of July to 80,000 BTC at the time of writing. This indicates over 62,000 BTC have been distributed to its creditors in the past three weeks. 

Mt. Gox Bitoin
Source: Arkham Intelligence

While some creditors have chosen to hold their Bitcoin, many have undoubtedly taken the chance to cash out after a decade of waiting. This wave of selling contributed to a $170 billion wipeout from the crypto market when Bitcoin fell below $54,000. Many might argue this was an overreaction from other market participants, as many rushed to reduce their exposure even before creditors initiated any selloffs. Interestingly, Bitcoin was under intense pressure from a concurrent selloff of seized Bitcoins by the German State of Saxony.

The initial fear and uncertainty have since cooled down, even though on-chain data shows that Mt. Gox creditors continue to receive repayments. Notably, Arkham’s data indicates approximately 0.02 BTC were recently sent to eight Bitstamp deposit addresses, another exchange being used for these repayments. Similarly, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju revealed that these repayments have not led to a spike in spot trading volume dominance on Kraken.

So far, Mt. Gox has managed the repayments effectively, mitigating selling pressure. Bitcoin has also responded positively, demonstrating stability and growing maturity that have helped prevent further declines. Mt. Gox still holds 80,128 BTC in its wallet. We will see how the market reacts as the repayments unfold in the next few weeks. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $67,085, up by 5% in the past 24 hours. 

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com
BTC price surges above $67,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com



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Bitcoin Price Is Decoupling From Gold Again — What’s Happening?

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Bitcoin has often been referred to as the “digital gold,” as it has proven to be a unique asset class and, more importantly, a reliable store of value over the years. While gold surely outpaces BTC in age, both assets are commonly used by investors as a hedge against economic instability and inflation.

Interestingly, there is almost always a positive correlation between Bitcoin and gold, leading to limited diversification opportunities for investors. However, the latest data shows that the premier cryptocurrency and the precious metal have been decoupling from each other in recent weeks.

BTC Is Losing Correlation With Gold — What Next?

In a recent Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, an analyst with the pseudonym Darkforst talked about the existing relationship between the price of Bitcoin and gold. According to the pundit, there is an ongoing decoupling between the crypto market leader and the gold market.

For context, correlation is a metric that measures the degree of association (how closely related) of the direction of prices of two specific assets. When the value of correlation is positive, it implies that the two assets are moving in the same direction. It is worth mentioning that the closer the metric’s value is to 1, the more correlated the assets are.

On the flip side, a correlation value less than 0 indicates that the two assets are negatively correlated, meaning that they are moving in opposite directions. Similarly, the closer the correlation value is to -1, the less closely related the assets.

While the gold market has been performing well in recent months, the metal’s price has slumped over the past few weeks. On the other hand, the Bitcoin price has enjoyed a strong bullish momentum in November, forging successive all-time highs in recent weeks.

quicktake-image

Source: CryptoQuant

As a result, the correlation between the price of Bitcoin and gold has slipped beneath the zero mark, moving into the negative territory, as shown in the chart above. According to Darkfost, the decoupling seems to be in BTC’s favor, as it could lead to a “liquidity shift” and cause more capital to flow into the flagship cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of BTC is hovering around the $98,000 mark, reflecting an almost 1% decline in the past 24 hours. Nevertheless, the premier cryptocurrency’s performance on the weekly timeframe is still quite remarkable. According to data from CoinGecko, the market leader is up by more than 7% in the last seven days.

Bitcoin

The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView



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Bitcoin Price And Satoshimeter: Analyst Says $100,000 Is Far From The Peak

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The Bitcoin price rally towards the $100,000 mark is the talk of the crypto industry. Notably, the Bitcoin price has reached new all-time highs for four consecutive days on the path to this $100,000 price level, with the latest being an intraday high of $99,645 in the past 24 hours. 

Interestingly, the ongoing bullish sentiment suggests this rally is far from over. According to one crypto (Stockmoney Lizards), Bitcoin is still in the middle of its projected peak this cycle, and the current pump is just one phase of a larger upward trajectory.

Satoshimeter Says Bitcoin Price Still Has A Long Way To Go

The Satoshimeter is a technical analysis tool developed by Stockmoney Lizards. The Satoshimeter uses on-chain data to monitor Bitcoin’s market cycles and has been relatively good in predicting market peaks and lows. For instance, readings around 1.6 typically mark the low points of bear markets, as seen in years like 2011, 2015, 2019, and 2022. On the other hand, the peaks of bull markets are highlighted by readings above 20 on the Satoshimeter.

The Bitcoin price rally has witnessed a notable surge since the beginning of the year and is showing no signs of stopping anytime soon. Particularly, the Bitcoin price is up by 163% in the past 12 months, according to Coinmarketcap data. Despite Bitcoin’s ongoing rally, the Satoshimeter currently sits in a mid-range area, suggesting that the cryptocurrency has substantial room for growth before reaching a cycle peak. 

Stockmoney Lizards emphasized that while the recent price surge might see short-term corrections, these are part of a healthy market trajectory. This implies that the Bitcoin price could see periodic pullbacks as it consolidates gains, but the Bitcoin price at $100,000 is definitely not the peak for this cycle.

Bitcoin price
Source: X

Long Road Ahead For BTC Price

A final break above $100,000 would undoubtedly be a major milestone for the Bitcoin price history. However, the current market sentiment suggests it would only be the first step of many milestones to hit this bull cycle. For instance, crypto analyst Stockmoney Lizards projected in another analysis that the Bitcoin price is about to enter a second parabolic run that would see it surging past the $120,000 price mark by April 2025.

Although this price target is very bullish, it pales in comparison to projections from other crypto analysts. PlanB, the creator of the popular Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, has put forth an even more ambitious target. He suggests that Bitcoin could reach trade for as high as $1,000,000 by December 2025. Despite these ambitious targets, caution is warranted, particularly as Bitcoin appears to be approaching an overheated zone on the MVRV ratio indicator.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $98,550.

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com
BTC price struggles to break $100,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com



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Bitcoin Price To $100,000? Here’s What To Expect If BTC Makes History

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Following the events of the past week, it is more of a matter of “when” rather than of “if” the Bitcoin price will hit a historic six-figure value. The crypto commentary channels and waves have been largely occupied with the premier cryptocurrency potentially reaching $100,000 over the last few weeks.

A six-figure value for BTC is not only an impressive milestone for the entire crypto industry but also one that comes with “unfavorable” events such as liquidations for short traders. Here is an on-chain insight into “what next” if the Bitcoin price climbs above $100,000.

What’s Next For BTC’s Price After $100,000? 

In a recent report, blockchain analytics firm Glassnode shared an insight into the on-chain performance of the premier cryptocurrency since starting its latest rally. While the $100,000 price mark seems inevitable, the blockchain firm expects Bitcoin price to lose some of its momentum after crossing the target.

One of the rationales behind this projection lies in the recent behavior of an investor cohort known as the Long-term holders (LTH). According to Glassnode, the long-term holders are beginning to offload their assets for profits and may be waiting to sell more coins as the price action continues to grow strong.

Bitcoin price

Source: Glassnode/X

Based on data from the LTH Spending Binary Indicator, which tracks the intensity of the sell-side pressure of the long-term holders, these major investors have been increasingly distributing their assets. This Spending Binary metric shows that the LTH balance has declined on 11 of the last 15 days.

While the demand from institutional investors, specifically via the US spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), has absorbed 90% of the sell-side pressure from long-term investors, Glassnode noted that the spending pressure of this investor cohort has begun to outpace ETF net inflows in recent days. This pattern was also noticed earlier in February 2024.

According to Glassnode, if the sell-side pressure continues to outpace the ETF demand, it could result in short-term price volatility or lead to price consolidation. The on-chain firm said:

However, since 13 November, LTH sell-side pressure has begun to outpace ETF net inflows, echoing a pattern observed in late February 2024, where the imbalance between supply and demand led to increased market volatility, and consolidation.

$1.89 Billion To Be Liquidated If Bitcoin Price Crosses This Level

In a November 22 post on X, prominent crypto analyst Ali Martinez sounded a warning to the Bitcoin bears. According to data from CoinGlass, a massive $1.89 billion looks set for liquidation if the Bitcoin price hits $100,625. 

Bitcoin price

Source: Ali_charts/X

As of this writing, the premier cryptocurrency is valued at $99,424, reflecting a 1.4% price increase in the past day. Data from CoinGecko shows that the Bitcoin price has been on a much more impressive run on the weekly timeframe, surging by nearly 10% in the past seven days.

Bitcoin price

The price of Bitcoin on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView



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