Bitcoin
Cryptoquant Founder Explains Why Mt. Gox’s 47,000 BTC Move Won’t Affect Price
Defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox’s recent Bitcoin transfers have continued to cause concerns for the crypto community, considering the amount of selling pressure they could place on the flagship crypto. However, Cryptoquant’s founder, Ki Young Ju, has helped to ease these concerns, recently explaining why these transactions might not affect the market.
Why Mt Gox’s 47,000 BTC Move Won’t Affect Bitcoin’s Price
In an X (formerly Twitter) post, Ki Young Ju outlined three possible scenarios for Mt Gox’s Bitcoin transactions to explain why it won’t affect its price. First, he stated that these Bitcoin transactions may have simply been an internal transfer, with the defunct crypto exchange switching wallets for security reasons.
Secondly, he mentioned that the transaction might have been an over-the-counter (OTC) deal, with such trades designed not to affect market price. Given the magnitude of Mt Gox’s Bitcoin holdings, this also seems feasible since the crypto exchange will be looking to facilitate repayments without their actions having severe impacts on the market.
For the third scenario, Ki Young Ju mentioned that Mt. Gox might have used a brokerage service after the sale was finalized since these bitcoins didn’t pass through brokers’ wallets or exchanges. Meanwhile, the Cryptoquant founder also alluded to the fact that 1,500 BTC was sent to Bitbank, but there was still no significant surge in trading volume, which suggests that Mt. Gox sales are unlikely to affect the market.
However, he admitted that 1,500 BTC is a relatively small amount, which may have explained the lack of a notable surge in trading volume. Ki Young Ju noted that 94,000 BTC is available for sell-side liquidity if scenario 3 applies. However, he seemed confident that this was unlikely to be the case, as he mentioned that it is impossible to sell this much BTC without on-chain movement. Meanwhile, he added that an OTC trade means that the market is in the clear.
Another Entity To Still Be Concerned About
While Ki Young Ju’s analysis suggests that Mt. Gox’s transactions are unlikely to affect the market, the Geman government is another entity to be concerned about. They have been offloading their Bitcoin holdings since last month, and recent on-chain data suggests that they might not be slowing down anytime soon.
On-chain analytics platform Arkham Intelligence revealed that the German government sent over 13,000 BTC to various crypto exchanges and makers on July 8, including Coinbase, Kraken, and Bitstamp. Despite these transfers, the German government still holds over 27,000 BTC ($1).57 billion). This is something to keep an eye on, especially if they still plan to offload a significant amount of their remaining holdings.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $57,500, up over 3% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin
Bitcoin Bull Saylor Hints at Expanding MicroStrategy’s Holdings
Michael Saylor, co-founder of MicroStrategy, has hinted at the possibility of additional Bitcoin purchases.
In a November 24 post on X (formerly Twitter), Saylor teased the company’s plans following its successful $3 billion fundraising round on November 22.
MicroStrategy’s $3 Billion Raise Could Fuel New Bitcoin Purchases
The Bitcoin bull mentioned that MicroStrategy’s portfolio tracker, SaylorTracker, “needs more green dots.” These markers symbolize the company’s each Bitcoin acquisition, fueling speculation about another significant purchase.
Saylor’s recent hints echo his previous two Sunday posts, which preceded announcements of large-scale Bitcoin acquisitions. During this period, MicroStrategy added approximately 80,000 BTC to its holdings, worth over $6 billion at the time.
Meanwhile, the recent $3 billion funding — raised through the issuance of convertible debt — could be instrumental in financing these new acquisitions. The convertible notes, sold privately to institutional investors under US securities laws, will mature on December 1, 2029. These notes carry a 55% premium and an implied strike price of $672 per share of MicroStrategy’s Class A common stock.
Market observers noted that this fundraiser aligns with MicroStrategy’s ambitious “21/21” initiative, which aims to raise $42 billion over three years through a mix of equity and fixed-income instruments.
The company remains the largest Bitcoin-holding public entity, with 331,200 BTC valued at over $32.7 billion. According to Saylor, MicroStrategy’s treasury operations have delivered a year-to-date Bitcoin yield of 41.8%, generating a net benefit of around 79,130 BTC, or roughly 246 BTC daily, without the operational costs associated with mining.
Additionally, this strategy has also bolstered MicroStrategy’s stock performance. MSTR shares have surged over 515% since the start of the year, making it one of the most actively traded stocks in the US.
Saylor emphasized that MicroStrategy’s operations are driven by its Bitcoin holdings, which are optimized through strategic financial tools like ATM offerings, enabling the company to reduce risk and volatility while enhancing shareholder value.
“MicroStrategy is powered by its Bitcoin treasury operations. We sell volatility through our ATM offerings, strip BTC risk, volatility, and performance from our fixed-income securities, and transfer that performance to our MSTR equity holders,” he stated.
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Bitcoin
$100K Bitcoin Is Only The Beginning, VanEck Targets $180K
Recent gains in Bitcoin are owed in part to changes in the political environment, particularly in the US. Incoming US President Donald Trump is backing cryptocurrencies, sparking renewed market optimism among investors.
From reforms in regulatory structures to a proposal for a national Bitcoin reserve, the policies he enforces provide Bitcoin an exceptional outlet for growth in an increasingly open and friendly new landscape. These changes places the US in a strategic position as the world’s leader in crypto innovation while giving a fertile ground for Bitcoin to continue growing.
Crypto On The Rise
These possible changes have been well taken by market participants, who have seen the highest market dominance of BTC at 59%. A bill being worked out may permit state-chartered banks to mint stablecoins without seeking prior approval from the Federal Reserve, putting the US in a very commanding position in the race to dominate financial innovation. Furthermore, proposals to deregulate the energy industry may favor crypto mining, which will place the US in a better position in the global race for blockchain.
🧐 Bitcoin’s flirtation with $100K continues as crypto’s top market cap has now reached an ATH of $99,850. As its price continues to hit round numbers and fulfill limit sell orders, it is widely being perceived as only a matter of time. pic.twitter.com/Qb1LTznuij
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) November 22, 2024
Historic Rally: BTC Approaching $100K
Bitcoin is trading at nearly $99,850 and is on the verge of the long-awaited $100,000 milestone. Similar to other bull runs, including the one witnessed after the elections in 2020, when the price of Bitcoin nearly doubled in a matter of a few months, some believe institutional interest coupled with friendly economic conditions and increased on-chain activity are the drivers of this phenomenal appreciation of the price of Bitcoin.
Source: VanEck
According to VanEck’s latest report, Bitcoin still is in its early stages of the rally, and there is minimal technical resistance in its way. With investor enthusiasm building, growing calls for the alpha coin to be adopted as a strategic reserve, and with a supportive US government, this rally appears well-positioned to continue. Experts are optimistic that Bitcoin is going to push forward and hit new highs.
The Future Of Bitcoin: Cautious Optimism
Analysts, while acknowledging that momentum is strong, point out that the market may run too hot, and early signs in the development are a rise in funding rates and increased unrealized profits. However, even from this stage, long-term prospects appear bright given strong institutional demand, solid on-chain metrics, and supportive regulatory changes, according to the forecast of $180,000 by VanEck for Bitcoin in the current cycle.
While historical data may indicate the crypto asset’s growth is decelerating as the markets mature, the cryptocurrency still shows hopeful prospects in the near term. So far, this rally displays the confidence of investors and has incrementally acquired recognition regarding Bitcoin’s role in a changed financial sector.
Featured image from CNBC, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin
Bitcoin Whales Remain Determined, $3.96 Billion Worth Of BTC Gobbled Up In 96 Hours
All eyes are on Bitcoin, especially as many traders continue to anticipate a break above the $100,000 mark. This anticipation has cascaded into a spike in activity, especially among Bitcoin whales. Interestingly, Bitcoin whales are making bold statements amidst the anticipation, with on-chain data pointing to an accumulation of over 40,000 BTC in just 96 hours among this holder cohort.
This interesting accumulation coincides with the Bitcoin price reaching a peak of $99,645 in the last 24 hours, adding further momentum to the narrative of a possible historic price milestone.
Examining The Holding Patterns Of Bitcoin Whales
Bitcoin’s recent price dynamics have put the spotlight on Bitcoin whales. Ali Martinez, a well-known cryptocurrency analyst, drew attention to the remarkable activity of Bitcoin whales on social media platform X.
While highlighting Santiment data, Martinez revealed that Bitcoin whales have bought over 40,000 BTC worth approximately $3.96 billion in the past 96 hours. Notably, the Bitcoin whales referred to in this metric by Santiment consist of addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC.
This aggressive accumulation comes at a critical juncture for Bitcoin, with prices flirting near the much-anticipated $100,000 mark. Such whale activity typically reduces the available supply of Bitcoin on the open market, which is expected to keep pushing up the Bitcoin price.
Despite the increase in whale accumulation, on-chain data from Glassnode suggests that long-term holders have upped their profit-taking in tandem. Particularly, over 128,000 BTC has been sold by long-term holders since early October.
However, this long-term holder profit taking has so far been offset by the demand from US Spot Bitcoin ETFs. These ETFs have acted as a counterbalance, absorbing nearly 90% of the Bitcoin sold by long-term holders.
A possible explanation is that long-term holders are exiting their self-custody of Bitcoin and are instead diverting their holdings into Spot Bitcoin ETFs in order to benefit from their regulatory clarity. According to data from SoSoValue, Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US witnessed consecutive days of inflows throughout last week to bring the total inflow to $3.38 billion, which is the largest weekly inflow since their launch in January 2024.
What’s Next For Bitcoin Price?
Looking ahead, the Bitcoin price is definitely on its way to break above $100,000 in the next few days. However, it remains to be seen what happens after that. Crypto analyst Tony Severino has speculated that the Bitcoin price peak could double within a timeframe of two weeks to two months following the break above $100,000.This prediction is based off of the Bitcoin price performance after it first broke above the $10,000 price level in 2017.
On the other hand, veteran analyst Peter Brandt suggests there could be some sort of selling pressure among bulls once the Bitcoin price breaks above $100,000.
“What I had in mind here is the possibility that bulls will sell their BTC sub $100,00 thinking they will buy a correction that does not come, then turn bearish if Bitcoin goes to $120,000 believing price must come down,” he said.
Nevertheless, the current crypto market landscape is set in place for a continued Bitcoin price increase in the next few weeks and months.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView
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