Market
Has Bitcoin Price Hit Bottom? 4 Crucial On-Chain Signals
In the crypto ecosystem, pinpointing the exact moment Bitcoin (BTC) prices bottom out is akin to finding a needle in a haystack. Recent data, however, provides some insights into whether the Bitcoin price has bottomed.
As the digital currency touched a one-month low of $58,500, analysts from CryptoQuant and Glassnode revealed four crucial on-chain indicators to watch. These indicators could be useful for analyzing market behaviors near the low points and understanding the conditions necessary for prices to rebound and rise again.
1. Tracking Bitcoin Demand Growth
The first quarter of 2024 saw a remarkable surge in Bitcoin demand coinciding with the launch of US spot ETFs, establishing record highs. However, post-May, this demand has seen a significant slowdown.
It is vital to observe the demand from permanent holders to determine whether Bitcoin has bottomed out. Permanent holders are now buying at a rate of 72,000 Bitcoin per month.
However, demand is significantly lower than in early 2024. A resurgence to these levels is essential for a sustainable price rally.
Read more: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030
Apart from the demand side, Glassnode’s analysis reveals significant insights into the behavior of long-term holders (LTHs), who play a crucial role in the supply side as well. LTHs typically distribute coins and take profits during bull markets, helping to establish market cycle tops.
Currently, the market is witnessing a regime where LTH divestment is moderated. This indicates a move toward equilibrium rather than euphoria, which is a phase when the unrealized profits of LTHs are more than 250%. The high profits motivate LTHs to sell BTC aggressively, marking a market top.
The current equilibrium phase suggests that while LTHs are not yet ready to offload their holdings massively, they are also not accumulating at a pace, thus providing a balanced supply dynamic in the market.
2. Assessing the Profitability of Traders
Another indicator is the profitability of traders. Currently, on-chain unrealized margins for traders are in the negative, suggesting reduced selling pressure but not necessarily a readiness for a price rebound.
For a bullish signal, these margins need to turn positive and rise above their 30-day simple moving average.
“Since mid-June, the spot price has plunged below the cost basis of both the 1-week to 1-month-old holders ($68,500) and 1-month to 3-month-old holders ($66,400). If this structure persists, it has historically resulted in a deterioration of investor confidence and risks this correction being deeper and taking longer to recover from,” Glassnode said.
Read more: 8 Best On-Chain Analysis Tools in 2024
3. Evaluating Stablecoin Liquidity
The growth in Tether’s USDT market capitalization is a proxy for liquidity in the cryptocurrency market. After peaking at $12.6 billion in late April, the growth over the past 60 days has slowed dramatically to just $2.5 billion, marking the slowest pace since November 2023.
An acceleration in stablecoin liquidity is essential for Bitcoin prices to rally. This will provide the market with the needed capital inflow to support higher price levels.
4. Monitoring the Ultimate Bitcoin Price Support Level
The final indicator to watch is Bitcoin’s support level, currently pegged at $56,000 based on Metcalfe’s price valuation bands.
“This valuation is based on the Metcalfe law that states the value of a network is proportional to the number of users in the network,” CryptoQuant explains.
This level has historically acted as both resistance and support in previous cycles. It also provided support to Bitcoin when its price dropped to around $56,500 in May 2024. A drop below this critical support could signal a significant market correction while maintaining above this level could suggest the market has bottomed.
Read more: How To Evaluate Cryptocurrencies with On-chain & Fundamental Analysis
Amid these technical indicators, social sentiment also shows signs that the market may believe the bottom has been reached. Analysis from Santiment highlighted a spike in social volume and dominance for the term “bottom,” suggesting a growing belief among investors and traders that Bitcoin’s price may not fall further.
However, the market often tends to go against the retail sentiments. Hence, traders and investors should consider the nuances carefully and do their own research before building new market positions.
Disclaimer
In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
Market
Dogwifhat (WIF) Leads Meme Coin Rally Amid Negative Sentiment
Dogwifhat (WIF) emerged as the top meme coin in the last 24 hours following its 12.34% price increase. The increase means that the token, which had endured a long downturn period, has now jumped by 40.17% within the seven days.
However, the colossal jump is not in tune with the perception market participants are showing to WIF. Could this imply a profound change in direction?
The Meme Coin Fever Is Not At Its Peak
According to Santiment, WIF’s Weighted Sentiment languishes at -0.95. Weighted Sentiment considers the number of mentions of an asset while tracking those expressed in a positive or negative manner.
If the reading is negative, it means that there are more pessimistic comments online. On the other hand, a positive reading implies that the broader market is optimistic about the price potential. For WIF, it is the former.
However, the bearish sentiment combined with the price increase means that the meme coin is nowhere near its top.
Read More: 5 Best Dogwifhat (WIF) Wallets to Consider In 2024
Assuming sentiment is extremely positive with the price jump, WIF may be nearing a significant correction period. But as it stands, the upswing can continue.
Undeterred by the broader sentiment, traders are positioning for a further hike. The Funding Rate, which represents the difference between a cryptocurrency’s perpetual and spot prices, reveals this.
As of this writing, Dogwifhat’s Funding Rate stands at 0.005%. Funding Rate helps to maintain market equilibrium. This is to ensure that contracts in the market don’t expire. If it is positive, longs (buyers) pay shorts (sellers).
But when it is negative, shorts pay longs a fee to keep their positions open. On June 28, the ratio was negative, indicating that the average trader’s expectation was bearish. Therefore, the positive reading as of this writing means that there is a rising demand for long positions.
WIF Price Prediction: Can Holders Get More Gains?
On the daily chart, BeInCrypto observed that the sellers’ exhaustion on June 23 was crucial to WIF’s bounce. During that period, the price traded at $1.56. Later on, bulls spotted the fatigue, helping the memecoin to form an almost-perfect daily green candle.
Currently, the $1.56 region is the support. Furthermore, WIF is looking to break through the $2.30 resistance. If successful, the price of the token may key into $2.64. Once this happens, a rally toward $3.21 will be possible.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 51.45, meaning the meme coin’s momentum maintains its bullish position. Likewise, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) heads in a similar direction.
Using the difference between the 12 and 26 EMAs, the MACD shows if a trend is bullish or bearish. Since the reading is positive, it means that WIF’s trend is bullish. If sustained, this may confirm the continuation of WIF’s upward run.
However, WIF might not hit the aforementioned prices if Bitcoin (BTC) does not maintain its recent uptrend. This is largely due to the meme coin’s strong correlation with BTC. Should this happen, WIF’s price may drop to $1.96.
Disclaimer
In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
Market
Avalanche (AVAX) Price Up as Whales Continue to Accumulate
Avalanche’s (AVAX) price hit a multi-month low following bearish market conditions, but this did not last long.
Increased bullish whale activity and improved market conditions substantiate the potential for recovery.
Avalanche Whales Attempt to Influence the Price
Avalanche’s price could be benefitting largely from the bullishness exhibited by the whales. These large wallet holders have been on an accumulation spree over the last two weeks.
Since whale addresses are some of the most important cohorts of investors, their move also influences the price action. Accumulation leads to a rise in price, whereas selling results in a drawdown.
During this time, the whale addresses acquired $139 million worth of AVAX in just one day. This buying spree indicates strong interest and confidence among large investors in the altcoin’s potential.
In addition to this substantial whale activity, AVAX’s correlation to Bitcoin remains strong, currently standing at 0.88. A high correlation often suggests that AVAX’s price movements will closely follow those of BTC.
Given Bitcoin’s recent recovery, AVAX’s strong correlation to BTC bodes well for its own recovery prospects. As Bitcoin continues to rise, it is likely that the altcoin will experience similar upward momentum.
Read More: How To Buy Avalanche (AVAX) and Everything You Need To Know
AVAX Price Prediction: Rise in Sights
Avalanche’s price trading at $29.61 is closing in on the critical resistance level at $31.15. This price has tested as a crucial support level multiple times in the past and flipping it into support again is the target.
Given that AVAX has already bounced back from a seven-month low of $24.40, there is a good chance it could breach $31 as well.
Read More: Avalanche (AVAX) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030
However, the market’s volatility cannot be ruled which keeps this recovery vulnerable. If the support at $24.40 is lost, the bullish thesis could be invalidated completely, leading to Avalanche’s price dropping to $20.
Disclaimer
In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
Market
Can Spot Ethereum (ETH) ETF Launch Revive Staking?
Ethereum (ETH) price is expected to note a massive surge following the launch of spot ETH ETFs this week.
However, the bigger question is whether the hype surrounding the ETFs will be able to bring interest back into staking or not.
Spot Ethereum ETF Could Bring Major Changes
Ethereum’s transition from proof of work to proof of stake was met with extreme bullishness. It introduced a new form of yield for ETH holders, something that Bitcoin cannot offer since it is a proof-of-work chain.
Plus, with ETH staking came the power of partial governance as becoming or endorsing a validator made the investors an integral part of the chain.
This ideology led to millions of ETH being staked in the chain. However, the eventual arrival of restaking in June 2023 resulted in significant outflows of staked ETH, which have been continuous since May 24 this year.
As the spot Ethereum ETF applications received approval on May 23, the validators halted their unstaking. Since then, the number of validators, i.e., the number of unique addresses holding at least 32 ETH, has been stable at around 116,480.
Read More: How to Invest in Ethereum ETFs?
Nevertheless, the launch of spot ETFs is expected to revive the interest in staking again. Discussing the same, Chen Arad, Co-founder and CXO of Solidus Labs, exclusively told BeInCrypto,
“A key element for institutional interest in Ethereum ETFs moving forward would be staking of ETH held by ETF funds, which is not currently included in the approved rule-change and proposals. This could make ETH ETFs an even more attractive product for wider audiences and open the door to further institutional inflows and engagement with DeFi.
However, to get regulators comfortable with the staking of ETH ETF funds, the industry needs to continue addressing fundamental concerns about compliance and security risks in the pre-chain block-building process.”
This could have a similarly bullish impact on Ethereum’s price as well.
ETH Price Prediction: Eyeing $4,000
Ethereum’s price bounced back from the support of 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement at $3,336. The second-generation cryptocurrency is currently changing hands at $3,474. There is anticipation that ETH will reclaim the 50% Fib line at $3,582.
Ethereum’s price would be open to a massive recovery if this happens, potentially even flipping 61.8% of the Fib line into support. This level lies at $3,829, which could boost ETH toward $4,000 in the long run.
Read More: Ethereum (ETH) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030
On the other hand, a failure to breach any of these key resistance levels could result in a slowdown in recovery. If ETH investors sell their holdings during this duration, the altcoin could end up at $3,336 again, invalidating the bullish thesis.
Disclaimer
In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
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