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Will Ethereum Skyrocket? Analyst Predicts $6,000 By September

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Popular crypto analyst degentrading (@degentradingLSD) has made a bold prediction that Ethereum will reach $6,000 by September 2024. This prediction comes in response to an analysis by Mechanism Capital founder Andrew Kang, who expects Ethereum to underperform despite the imminent launch of US spot Ethereum ETFs.

Andrew Kang’s analysis projects a continued downtrend for ETHBTC, with the ratio expected to range between 0.035 and 0.06 over the next year. In his detailed thread on X, Kang expressed skepticism about Ethereum’s potential, despite the ETF launch being just days away.

Why Ethereum Could Reach $6,000 By September

Degentrading, however, presented a counter-argument in a thread on X. Degentrading begins by examining the change in CME open interest (OI) from pre-ETF days to the present, noting a substantial increase of approximately $5 billion.

He explains, “Pre-ETF, it was very onerous to perform cash and carry on CME due to margin requirements. Hence, the upper bound of basis trades is probably capped at that amount.” This insight suggests that the advent of the ETF could significantly ease trading constraints, potentially unlocking a large influx of capital.

However, he tempers this by discussing the challenges posed by the extinction of prime brokers like Genesis, which complicates spot borrowing as a hedge against CME futures longs. According to degentrading, “Unless market makers can frequently charge a bid/ask spread, they are effectively locking in a loss. Therefore, the sheer amount of CME basis trades has to be a minority. I would peg the figure at $1-2 billion max.” This leaves an estimated $7 billion in potential inflows, a figure he describes as “highly dependent on assumptions.”

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Degentrading contrasts Ethereum’s position with that of Bitcoin, criticizing sentiments from analysts like Eric Balchunas. “Nothing in traditional finance is as exciting as tech. Bitcoin has the branding of digital gold or millennial gold. Gold’s market cap is approximately $15 trillion,” he notes. In contrast, Ethereum is seen as a decentralized global settlement layer or world computer, with the US stock market already valued at $50 trillion. This, he argues, sets a much higher ceiling for Ethereum.

He further explains that in his discussions with traditional finance (tradfi) professionals, there is more enthusiasm for ETH and even SOL compared to BTC. “People are much more excited about ETH or SOL for that matter. Hence, I would peg the inflow conversion rate at half of Bitcoin’s, which translates to about $3-4 billion into ETH,” degentrading asserts.

One of the key points in degentrading’s argument is Ethereum’s relative illiquidity compared to Bitcoin. He highlights that while Ethereum is roughly one-third the size of Bitcoin, its liquidity is only about 10% of BTC. “This means that an influx of $3-4 billion will materially move ETH,” he emphasizes. This illiquidity could lead to significant price movements with relatively smaller capital inflows.

Addressing the market’s current positioning, degentrading points out the overall bleak sentiment on Crypto Twitter (CT), viewing it as the best technical setup for Ethereum. He notes, “On the cusp of the ETH ETF launch, you have people setting expectations for $500 million of inflows over six months. This is the BEST technical setup for ETH.”

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An important factor in degentrading’s analysis is the anticipated conversion of Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust (ETHE) into an ETF. He suggests that ETHE will likely face much less selling pressure compared to the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) due to a lesser lender overhang. “ETHE will also likely face MUCH LESS selling pressure than GBTC because of the much lesser lender overhang,” he notes.

Impact Of Cash And Carry Trades

Andrew Kang responded to degentrading’s analysis, highlighting the involvement of large funds like Millennium, which owns $2 billion of the ETF. Kang points out that such funds engage in basis trades and are not long-only investment funds. “Millennium by itself owns $2 billion of the ETF. They are not a long-only investment fund. They do these types of basis trades. That’s only one fund from an old filing,” Kang stated.

Degentrading acknowledged this but emphasized the cost implications of holding a cash and carry position. He argued that the cost of holding such positions nets out significant amounts, which impacts the market maker’s profitability. “On that thought, the cost of holding a cash and carry would net out $300 million to Millennium and cost the market maker that amount, implying that the delta is borne by a naked delta on the futures,” degentrading retorted.

At press time, ETH traded at $3,362.90.

Ethereum price
ETH price, 1-week chart | Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com



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Justin Sun Potential $66 Million Loss Revealed As Ethereum Price Declines

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Semilore Faleti is a cryptocurrency writer specialized in the field of journalism and content creation. While he started out writing on several subjects, Semilore soon found a knack for cracking down on the complexities and intricacies in the intriguing world of blockchains and cryptocurrency.

Semilore is drawn to the efficiency of digital assets in terms of storing, and transferring value. He is a staunch advocate for the adoption of cryptocurrency as he believes it can improve the digitalization and transparency of the existing financial systems.

In two years of active crypto writing, Semilore has covered multiple aspects of the digital asset space including blockchains, decentralized finance (DeFi), staking, non-fungible tokens (NFT), regulations and network upgrades among others.

In his early years, Semilore honed his skills as a content writer, curating educational articles that catered to a wide audience. His pieces were particularly valuable for individuals new to the crypto space, offering insightful explanations that demystified the world of digital currencies.

Semilore also curated pieces for veteran crypto users ensuring they were up to date with the latest blockchains, decentralized applications and network updates. This foundation in educational writing has continued to inform his work, ensuring that his current work remains accessible, accurate and informative.

Currently at NewsBTC, Semilore is dedicated to reporting the latest news on cryptocurrency price action, on-chain developments and whale activity. He also covers the latest token analysis and price predictions by top market experts thus providing readers with potentially insightful and actionable information.

Through his meticulous research and engaging writing style, Semilore strives to establish himself as a trusted source in the crypto journalism field to inform and educate his audience on the latest trends and developments in the rapidly evolving world of digital assets.

Outside his work, Semilore possesses other passions like all individuals. He is a big music fan with an interest in almost every genre. He can be described as a “music nomad” always ready to listen to new artists and explore new trends.

Semilore Faleti is also a strong advocate for social justice, preaching fairness, inclusivity, and equity. He actively promotes the engagement of issues centred around systemic inequalities and all forms of discrimination.

He also promotes political participation by all persons at all levels. He believes active contribution to governmental systems and policies is the fastest and most effective way to bring about permanent positive change in any society.

In conclusion, Semilore Faleti exemplifies the convergence of expertise, passion, and advocacy in the world of crypto journalism. He is a rare individual whose work in documenting the evolution of cryptocurrency will remain relevant for years to come.

His dedication to demystifying digital assets and advocating for their adoption, combined with his commitment to social justice and political engagement, positions him as a dynamic and influential voice in the industry.

Whether through his meticulous reporting at NewsBTC or his fervent promotion of fairness and equity, Semilore continues to inform, educate, and inspire his audience, striving for a more transparent and inclusive financial future.



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Doomsday for Ethereum? ‘A Crash Down To $1,500 Is Coming,’ Says Skeptic, Here’s Why

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The crypto market is currently navigating through a turbulent phase, particularly for Ethereum, which has seen a significant downturn of nearly 15% in its value over the past week.

Amid this negative price performance, Peter Schiff, a well-known economist and a skeptic of cryptocurrencies, has chosen to add salt to the wounds by projecting a stark prediction for ETH. According to Schiff, Ethereum could plummet to as low as $1,500, marking a substantial decline from its current levels.

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Shiff’s Bearish Outlook And Community Reaction

Schiff’s prediction comes when Ethereum is trading below the previous crucial support of $3,000 mark, a sharp 30% fall from its peak above $4,500 in March.

This decline coincides with heightened speculation surrounding the potential launch of an Ethereum spot exchange-traded fund (ETF), which seems to have triggered a premature sell-off among investors instead of propelling the price.

Schiff’s commentary suggests that the market’s response to the ETF rumors has been to liquidate positions rather than hold, adding further downward pressure on Ethereum’s price.

He expressed his view on Elon Musk’s social media platform, X, stating, “It looks like those buying the Ethereum ETF rumors couldn’t wait for the fact to sell,” indicating a market driven by speculation rather than sustained investment confidence.

While Schiff’s bearish outlook has garnered attention, it has also sparked a mix of skepticism and agreement within the crypto community. Users have expressed varying opinions on social media platforms, with some questioning the technical basis of Schiff’s $1,500 target.

Others humorously noted that Schiff’s pessimistic predictions often come at market bottoms, suggesting his views might inadvertently signal a buying opportunity. For instance, one user remarked on the irony of Schiff’s timing, indicating that his bearish predictions could contradict market sentiment indicators.

Ethereum Faces Critical Juncture

Ethereum is experiencing a significant downturn, trading at $2,975—a 4.2% drop over the past day. This decline and Bitcoin’s similar trajectory have led to a 4.1% reduction in the global cryptocurrency market cap, erasing more than $200 billion in value.

Ethereum (ETH) price chart on TradingView
ETH price is moving downwards on the 2-hour chart. Source: ETH/USDT on TradingView.com

According to Coinglass, this downturn has triggered substantial losses for traders, with 207,020 liquidations in the past day, totaling $576.53 million. Ethereum-related liquidations account for $134.58 million, predominantly from long positions.

While Peter Schiff’s outlook may seem too pessimistic amid these market conditions, another voice in the crypto analysis sphere, Inspo Crypto, offers a slightly more moderate view.

He notes that Ethereum’s price has fallen to early May levels and suggests that the next 8-hour trading window could be crucial in determining the market’s direction.

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If Ethereum can rise above these levels, it might potentially ease the bearish trend. However, failure to reach the $3,170 mark (which it already has) could lead to further declines, possibly down to $2,700, exacerbating losses across the altcoin market.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView





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Analyst Predicts Ethereum Nosedive, Cautions Investors To Prepare For $2,700 Target

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Amid the ongoing bloodbath in the cryptocurrency market, Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has not been spared. Over the past week, ETH has experienced a significant 9% price decline, bringing it down to the $3,130 level. 

As market participants closely monitor the situation, the focus now lies on crucial levels that must be held back to prevent a deeper retrace that could lead to substantial losses and heightened liquidation rates not witnessed in months.

Make-Or-Break Moment For Ethereum Price

Crypto analyst “Inspo Crypto” has drawn attention that Ethereum’s price has retraced to levels last seen at the beginning of May. 

According to the analyst, the upcoming 8-hour trading period, represented by a 1-day candle, will be a critical juncture to determine whether the bulls have capitulated or can muster a comeback. 

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A retracement above the abovementioned level could be considered a deviation from the bearish trend. However, if Ethereum fails to retest the lower trend channel at $3,170, it could pave the way for a further decline towards $2,700, consequently impacting altcoins and leading to significant losses across the market.

Upward Trajectory To $5,000 if Price Holds At $3,170

The analyst further asserts that, in his opinion, Ethereum has been operating within a new trend channel since October 2013. Hence, if ETH manages to hold its price within the range of $3,170  without breaking down, it would confirm an upward trajectory towards $5,000. It is important to note that this timeframe extends until the end of the year. 

Additionally, it should be considered that Ethereum is still operating within a long-term trend channel

If the described scenario unfolds, it would also confirm the long-term trend channel, indicating that ETH was trapped in a bearish phase between August 2023 and February 2024 and is now embarking towards $8,000 over the coming months. 

However, it is crucial to acknowledge that this analysis does not account for external factors such as monetary policy decisions or geopolitical conflicts. 

Nevertheless, if Ethereum manages to hold the $3,170 level and begins an upward ascent, the possibility of an altcoin season becomes increasingly feasible, as suggested by the analyst.

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Ultimately, ETH’s next moves will affect its trajectory and impact the broader crypto landscape, particularly the altcoin market, which has also seen significant losses in recent days. 

Ethereum
The 1-D chart shows ETH’s price drop on Thursday. Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

ETH trades at $3,130 at the time of writing, reflecting a 5% decline in the past 24 hours. As a result, it becomes crucial that the token closes above the aforementioned critical level of $3,170 in the coming hours to prevent potential additional losses, as emphasized by the analyst.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com



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