The Bitcoin price action in the past two weeks has reiterated its volatile nature despite the steady flow of institutional money. The cryptocurrency surged in the last days of September from $53,500 to a high of $66,000, only to pull back to $61,000 in the first few days of October, showing its unpredictable nature.

Interestingly, Bitcoin’s rally to reaching $66,000 has led to a change in the investing dynamics among holder cohorts. Furthermore, this change in dynamics reveals that its reversal and retest after the rally is not entirely bad news for Bitcoin’s price. In fact, this shift suggests that the pullback could be setting the stage for a more resilient long-term price outlook for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s Rejection At $66,000

Bitcoin’s recent break above $66,000 last week led to the creation of the first higher high since June. This notable Bitcoin development was noted by on-chain analytics platform Glassnode in a recent report. Bitcoin, which had initially created a higher low of $53,000 in September, eventually went on to break above the August high of $64,500. According to the report, the creation of this higher high led to a change in the profitability of short-term and long-term holder cohorts, with many more bitcoins moving into the long-term threshold. 

Particularly, the recent rally has seen many coins acquired in close proximity to the $73,780 all-time high now being held for over 155 days. This, in turn, has seen many of these coins, which are in losses, now moving to long-term holder status. Although only 6.54% of long-term holders are in losses, they account for 47.4% of all coins in losses. While this might not bode well at the moment for these long-term holders, Glassnode notes that this is actually common during re-accumulation phases, as seen in the 2013, 2019 and 2021 periods. History shows that these have often led to price rallies. 

On the other end, profitability has improved massively among short-term holders. Glassnode data shows that a significant number of coins that are still in the short-term cohort have a cost basis between $53,000 and $66,000. Interestingly, the last rally has pushed the profitability of short-term holder supply to over 62%. Notably, profit-taking volumes are now 14.17 times larger than for loss-taking. As such, the financial pressure on short-term holders has now been eased, and many of them now have incentives to keep holding. 

What Next For Bitcoin?

Despite Bitcoin’s recent reversal at $66,000, the cryptocurrency finds itself in a stronger and more profitable position for investors around the board compared to where it stood just a month ago. Furthermore, the rejection at $66,000 has given investors, especially long-term holders, another chance to load up on their holdings. 

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $61,200.  

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

According to the American television network HBO, the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto, who created Bitcoin, may not be a mystery for much longer.

The alleged discovery could significantly impact Bitcoin (BTC), as anonymity has played a strategic role in maintaining the cryptocurrency’s decentralized nature.

Satoshi Nakamoto Unmasked, HBO Says

In a Thursday post on X, HBO said it would premier a documentary to reveal the identity of the pseudonymous Bitcoin creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. Based on the trailer, the documentary will feature some influential personalities in the Bitcoin playing field.

Among them is Adam Back, the inventor of the blockchain hashing algorithm used in some cryptocurrency mining software. Roger Ver, who later moved on to Bitcoin Cash, also features alongside Samson Mow and Philip Karađorđević, the self-styled Prince of Serbia and renowned Bitcoiner.

Satoshi’s identity has been a mystery since Bitcoin was created in 2009 as the first truly decentralized cryptocurrency. The revelation would make public the controller of about 1.1 million Bitcoin, the biggest BTC stash in the world.

If Satoshi Nakamoto still holds the cryptographic keys to their Bitcoin fortune, their net worth would be approximately $67.5 billion, based on current prices. Data from BeInCrypto indicates that Bitcoin is trading at $61,353 at the time of writing. 

Read more: Who Owns the Most Bitcoin in 2024?

Crypto enthusiasts widely believe that Satoshi Nakamoto has no control over Bitcoin’s code, network consensus, or its operations. Despite ongoing chatter, curiosity surrounding Nakamoto’s influence is deemed largely irrelevant.

Recently, several high-value wallets from the Satoshi era became active for the first time since 2009. While these wallets are not officially tied to Nakamoto, they may belong to early collaborators.

More Satoshi Nakamoto Theories to Go Bust Soon

There have been several theories about who is Satoshi Nakamoto. Some of the most prominent speculations over the years include:

• Nick Szabo — computer scientist and cryptographer.
• Hal Finney — cryptographic pioneer and the first person to receive a Bitcoin transaction from Satoshi Nakamoto.
• Dorian Nakamoto — he denied any involvement after a discovery article in 2024.
• Craig Wright – an Australian computer scientist who claimed he is Satoshi with cryptographic evidence to support his claim.
• A Group of Individuals – there are theories that Satoshi is not a single person.

Hhowever, the UK presiding judge, Mr. Justice Mellor, stripped off one theory, determining that Craig Wright is not the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin. The ruling came after the Crypto Open Patent Alliance (Copa), a conglomerate of cryptocurrency companies, levied charges against Wright.

Copa aimed to prevent Wright from claiming he had invented Bitcoin. Notably, the defendant was already using the speculation to expand his influence over the crypto sector.

“Wright is not the author of the Bitcoin white paper. He is not the person who adopted or operated under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto in the period 2008 to 2011… He is not the person who created the Bitcoin system…and he is not the author of the initial versions of the Bitcoin software,” Justice Mellor said.

With the UK court’s determination in March 2024, the search for Satoshi Nakamoto continued, and now HBO claims to have all the answers. Social media is already abuzz following the announcement, with discussions and concerns among crypto market participants.

Read more: Anonymity vs. Pseudonymity: Understanding the Key Differences.

To some, it is surprising why the supposed identity has not been leaked, with an entire series at the cusp of release. This speculation is based on the assumption that it would be nearly impossible to keep news of such magnitude airtight.

Other concerns include how the authorities could claim Satoshi Nakamoto’s complicity in crimes featuring Bitcoin use. The FBI is also said to have information about Nakamoto, which further heats up discussions on the subject.

The cryptocurrency market is preparing for short-term volatility, with approximately $1.4 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring today.

With Bitcoin options totaling $1.066 billion in notional value and Ethereum options accounting for $284.99 million, traders are eyeing the expiration for its potential impact on prices.

Analysts Predict A Market Shakeout Amid Expiring Options

Data on Deribit shows 17,448 Bitcoin options contracts will expire on October 4. The contracts have a put-to-call ratio of 0.75 and a maximum pain point of $63,000.

At the same time, Ethereum’s options market is set to expire with 119,599 contracts. Today’s expiring Ethereum contracts have a put-to-call ratio of 0.68, with a maximum pain point of $2,500.

Read more: An Introduction to Crypto Options Trading

n options trading, the put-to-call ratio serves as a key sentiment indicator by comparing the volume of put options traded to call options. A put-to-call ratio of 0.75 for Bitcoin suggests that more call options are being traded, indicating bullish market sentiment. Similarly, Ethereum’s put-to-call ratio of 0.68 also points to optimism, as more calls than puts are being exchanged.

For those unfamiliar with the concept, a put-to-call ratio below 1 generally signals bullish sentiment, as more investors expect market gains. In contrast, a ratio above 1 often reflects bearish sentiment, signaling concerns about a market decline.

Price Implication Based on BTC and ETH Maximum Pain Points

The current market prices for Bitcoin and Ethereum are below their respective maximum pain points. BTC is trading at $61,209 and ETH at $2,381. This suggests that if the options were to expire at these levels, it would generally signify gains for options holders.

The outcome for options traders can vary significantly depending on the specific strike prices and positions they hold. To accurately assess potential gains or losses at expiration, traders must consider their entire options position, along with current market conditions.

Analysts at Greeks.live suggest that additional market factors could emerge, influencing overall trends and affecting trader decisions. Therefore, comprehensive evaluation is essential before drawing conclusions on options trades.

“Friday’s unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls data, and now the windy A-share market compared to the US stock market is much less favorable. However, the cryptocurrency market is more connected to US stocks, and the only connection between A-shares and crypto might be that many people are out of gold speculating in stocks, knocking down the price of u fiat currency,” they wrote.

The analysts also say crypto markets are entering a shakeout before what has historically been a bullish month. A shakeout is when the otherwise “weak hands” are triggered to sell based on scary market conditions. Geopolitical tensions could aggravate the sell-off, which continues to escalate.

“Today is going to be a big day. Very important job data is coming in the next 7 hours, which will impact the US stock market heavily. We can get a super pump or heavy dump. Israel planning to launch a counterattack on Iran today. Bitcoin needs to hold $60,000 for a bounce but if $60,000 breaks we can see a quick dump to $56,000-$57,000. The best strategy is to hold your positions and not be shaken out,” analyst Ash Crypto advised.

Meanwhile, crypto markets remain subtly optimistic amid bullish US economic data. The Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates amid cooling inflation inspires optimism for riskier assets. Economists expect more rate cuts in 2024, but this remains to be seen. This is as the Fed continues to exercise its dual mandate- to achieve maximum employment and keep prices stable.

Read more: 9 Best Crypto Options Trading Platforms. 

Traders are therefore advised to remain cautious, as historically, options expiration often leads to short-term instability in the market. The weekend will also be crucial as it is often characterized by high volatility.