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Fed May Trigger Dollar Drop to Boost Crypto

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Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, suggests that the Federal Reserve implement an unlimited dollar-yen swap agreement with the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to curb the yen depreciation.

This move could sharply devalue the US dollar, increasing global dollar liquidity, which might benefit the crypto market, particularly Bitcoin.

Hayes’ Perspective on Dollar-Yen Swap

Arthur Hayes explains that the proposed dollar-yen swap would function similarly to yield curve control. The Federal Reserve would swap dollars for the yen with the BOJ unlimitedly.

“The depreciation of the US dollar means a sharp increase in global US dollar liquidity. This will benefit the crypto market, led by Bitcoin,” Hayes said.

The former BitMEX CEO further notes that the BOJ and Japan’s Ministry of Finance would use these dollars to stabilize the yen by purchasing it, avoiding the need to sell US Treasury securities to raise dollars. This strategy helps Japan avoid raising interest rates, which would negatively impact its financial institutions that heavily invest in Japanese government bonds (JGBs).

Read more: Bitcoin Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030

Geopolitically, a stronger yen could affect China, Japan’s direct export competitor. If Japan strengthens the yen through this swap agreement, China might devalue the yuan to maintain its export competitiveness.

Macroeconomic Backdrop and Market Reactions

The macroeconomic backdrop remains crucial for crypto, especially Bitcoin. Recent US data has reduced the likelihood of further rate hikes. Meanwhile, China has significantly increased stimulus measures, adding positive liquidity momentum. 

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) recently announced plans for an ultra-long bond issuance and a historic rescue package to stabilize the property sector, essentially amounting to quantitative easing (QE) for real estate.

The growing liquidity from the US and China creates a favorable environment for Bitcoin. Spot BTC ETF inflows have increased, with $716 million in net inflows last week, reversing April’s outflows. Major institutional investors are also interested, with Millennium Management holding significant shares in Bitcoin ETFs.

Read more: How To Trade a Bitcoin ETF: A Step-by-Step Approach

Bitcoin Correlation With Equities.
Bitcoin Correlation With Equities. Source: Kaiko

The correlation between Bitcoin and US equities remains a key metric to watch. Last week, Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with US equities rose to 0.17 from a multi-year low of 0.01 in March. This development highlights the importance of active monitoring and analysis in the current market environment.

In conclusion, the Federal Reserve’s potential implementation of an unlimited dollar-yen swap represents a significant policy shift. This could have far-reaching effects on global liquidity, asset prices, and the competitive dynamics between major economies like Japan and China.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Bitcoin Price Approaches $100K: The Countdown Is On

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Este artículo también está disponible en español.

Bitcoin price is rising steadily above the $95,000 zone. BTC is showing positive signs and might soon hit the $100,000 milestone level.

  • Bitcoin started a fresh increase above the $95,000 zone.
  • The price is trading above $95,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
  • There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $95,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair could continue to rise if it clears the $100,000 resistance zone.

Bitcoin Price Sets Another ATH

Bitcoin price remained supported above the $92,000 level. BTC formed a base and started a fresh increase above the $95,000 level. It cleared the $96,500 level and traded to a new high at $98,999 before there was a pullback.

There was a move below the $98,000 level. However, the price remained stable above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $91,500 swing low to the $98,990 high. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at $95,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

The trend line is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $91,500 swing low to the $98,990 high. Bitcoin price is now trading above $96,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.

On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $98,880 level. The first key resistance is near the $99,000 level. A clear move above the $99,000 resistance might send the price higher. The next key resistance could be $100,000.

Bitcoin Price
Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

A close above the $100,000 resistance might initiate more gains. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $102,000 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $104,500 resistance level.

Downside Correction In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $100,000 resistance zone, it could start a downside correction. Immediate support on the downside is near the $98,000 level.

The first major support is near the $96,800 level. The next support is now near the $95,500 zone and the trend line. Any more losses might send the price toward the $92,000 support in the near term.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $96,800, followed by $95,500.

Major Resistance Levels – $99,000, and $100,000.



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This Is Why XRP Price Rallied By 25% and Could Soon Hit $2

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Ripple’s (XRP) price rallied by 25% in the last 24 hours following Gary Gensler’s announcement that he would resign as the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chair on January 20, 2025.

This development comes as a relief to the popular “XRP Army,” which has had to deal with suppressed price action due to the Gensler-led SEC’s nonstop petitions against Ripple. But that is not all that happened. 

Ripple Bears Face Notable Liquidation Following Gensler’s Notification

Gensler’s announcement appears to be a positive development for the broader crypto market. But XRP holders seemed to benefit the most. This was particularly significant given the unresolved Ripple-SEC legal issues that have persisted throughout the SEC Chair’s tenure.

As a result, it came as no surprise that XRP price rallied and outpaced those of any other cryptocurrency in the top 10. Furthermore, the development triggered liquidations totaling $26.11 million over the last 24 hours.

Liquidation occurs when a trader fails to meet the margin requirements for a leveraged position. This forces the exchange to sell off their assets to prevent further losses. In XRP’s case, the liquidation primarily resulted in a short squeeze.

XRP liquidations
Crypto Market 24-Hour Liquidations. Source: Coinglass

A short squeeze happens when a large number of short positions (traders betting on price declines) are forced to close, driving the price higher as they rush back to buy back the asset.

At press time, XRP trades at $1.40 and currently has a market cap of $80.64 billion. With Gensler almost gone, crypto lawyer John Deaton noted that XRP price gains could be higher, and the market cap could climb to $100 billion.

“XRP soon will achieve a $100B market cap. Times are changing,” Deaton wrote on X.

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant data shows that the total number of XRP sent into exchange has significantly decreased. Typically, high values indicate increased selling pressure in the spot market. This is because it suggests that more assets are being offloaded, potentially driving prices lower.

However, since it is low, XRP holders are refraining from selling. If this remains the case, the token’s value could rise higher than $1.40.

XRP exchange inflow
XRP Exchange Inflow. Source: CryptoQuant

XRP Price Prediction: $2 Coming?

According to the 4-hour chart, XRP has been trading within a range of $1.04 to $1.17 since November 18. This sideways movement has resulted in the formation of a bull flag — a bullish chart pattern that signals potential upward momentum.

The bull flag begins with a sharp price surge, forming the flagpole, driven by significant buying pressure that outpaces sellers. This is followed by a consolidation phase, where the price retraces slightly and moves within parallel trendlines, creating the flag structure.

Yesterday, XRP broke out of this pattern, signaling that bulls have seized control of the market. If this momentum persists, XRP’s price could surpass $1.50, potentially approaching the $2 threshold.

XRP price analysis
XRP 4-Hour Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, this bullish scenario hinges on market behavior. If holders decide to secure profits, selling pressure could push XRP’s price below $1, erasing recent gains.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Dogecoin (DOGE) Shows Renewed Energy: Rally Incoming?

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Dogecoin is consolidating gains above the $0.380 resistance against the US Dollar. DOGE is holding gains and eyeing more upsides above $0.400.

  • DOGE price started a fresh increase above the $0.3750 resistance level.
  • The price is trading above the $0.3800 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average.
  • There was a break above a short-term contracting triangle with resistance at $0.390 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
  • The price could continue to rally if it clears the $0.400 and $0.4080 resistance levels.

Dogecoin Price Eyes More Upsides

Dogecoin price remained supported above the $0.350 level and recently started a fresh increase like Bitcoin and Ethereum. DOGE was able to clear the $0.3650 and $0.3750 resistance levels.

The price climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $0.4208 swing high to the $0.3652 low. Besides, there was a break above a short-term contracting triangle with resistance at $0.390 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair.

Dogecoin price is now trading above the $0.3750 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $0.3950 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $0.4208 swing high to the $0.3652 low.

Dogecoin Price

The first major resistance for the bulls could be near the $0.400 level. The next major resistance is near the $0.4080 level. A close above the $0.4080 resistance might send the price toward the $0.4200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $0.4500 level. The next major stop for the bulls might be $0.500.

Are Dips Supported In DOGE?

If DOGE’s price fails to climb above the $0.400 level, it could start a downside correction. Initial support on the downside is near the $0.3850 level. The next major support is near the $0.3750 level.

The main support sits at $0.3550. If there is a downside break below the $0.3550 support, the price could decline further. In the stated case, the price might decline toward the $0.3200 level or even $0.300 in the near term.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for DOGE/USD is now gaining momentum in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for DOGE/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $0.3850 and $0.3750.

Major Resistance Levels – $0.4000 and $0.4200.



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