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The cryptocurrency market has not had a clear direction in 2025, reflecting the uncertain condition of the digital asset industry. Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is currently 24% away from its record-high price of $108,786 reached in January 2025.

With the premier cryptocurrency steadily drifting away from its all-time high, there have been questions about what phase of the cycle the market is currently in. Interestingly, recent on-chain data offers some insight into the current state of the Bitcoin market and the reaction of the participants.

Are Seasoned BTC Investors Anticipating A Price Surge?

In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, analyst Axel Adler Jr. shared an analysis of the current Bitcoin cycle, offering insight into the behavior of an important group of investors. According to the online pundit, seasoned BTC players are back to accumulating the flagship cryptocurrency.

Adler Jr. revealed that the experienced BTC investors have been involved in four phases of accumulation (January 2023, October 2023, October 2024, March 2025) in the current cycle. On the flip side, the selling activity of these market participants has reached four distinct peaks, including January 2024, April 2024, July 2024, and January 2025.

The relevant on-chain indicator here is the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) metric, which tracks the spending behaviour of long-term investors. The chart below shows that the VDD metric has been steadily declining since the start of 2025.

Source: CryptoQuant

Using the chart as a basis, Adler Jr. mentioned that three major features define the current phase of the Bitcoin cycle. Firstly, the seasoned investors, who were actively distributing their BTC at local peaks, have now shifted their strategy toward holding and accumulating their coins.

Additionally, the Value Days Destroyed metric suggests an absence of significant selling pressure, which means that the experienced traders are skeptical about profit at the current Bitcoin price. Moreover, periods of low VDD values have historically preceded significant upward price movements, as investors accumulate in anticipation of a price surge.

Ultimately, this positive shift in the behavior of seasoned Bitcoin holders suggests that there might be room for further price growth for Bitcoin in the medium term. 

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of BTC sits at around $83,200, with an over 2% decline in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the flagship cryptocurrency is also down by about 2% on the weekly timeframe.

BTC price reclaims $83,000 level on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Featured image created by DALL-E, chart from TradingView

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The Bitcoin price seemed to be breaking out of its consolidation range early on in the week, rising to as high as $88,500 on Monday, March 24. However, the flagship cryptocurrency appears to be back to ground zero, retracing to around $84,000 on Friday, March 28.

This recent price correction came following the release of inflation data in the United States. With the latest inflation data suggesting delayed rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, risk assets — including cryptocurrencies — experienced significant downward pressure to close the week.

Here’s How BTC Price Could Fall To $62,000

The story gets a little grim for the world’s largest cryptocurrency after popular crypto analyst Crypto Capo put forward a bearish projection for the Bitcoin price in their latest post on the X platform. According to the crypto trader, the price of BTC could be on its way to a new low in this cycle.

Crypto Capo highlighted in their analysis of the BTC 12-hour chart that the $84,000 – $85,000 is pivotal for the premier cryptocurrency’s future trajectory. The online pundit noted that the Bitcoin price action could go one of two ways over the next few weeks.

In the first scenario, Crypto Capo expects the price of Bitcoin to enjoy a short-lived bullish burst to within the $95,000 – $100,000 range. This initial price run-up would be a bull trap for investors, according to the analyst. For context, a bull trap is a pattern that lures long traders (bulls) into the market by an initial upward surge followed by a quick reversal.

Fittingly, Crypto Capo predicts that Bitcoin will experience a capitulation event that will see its value plummet to the next main support. As seen in the chart below, this next major support lies within the $62,000 – $69,000 bracket, containing the April and November all-time high prices.

Source: @CryptoCapo_ on X

In the alternate scenario, Crypto Capo highlighted how the first bull trap idea could be invalidated. According to the trader, if the Bitcoin price successfully closes beneath the $84,000 – $85,000 range, it could fall to the $62,000 – $69,000 bracket.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin is moving around the $83,300 level, reflecting a 3% decline in the past 24 hours. This single correction event has wiped out the premier coin’s early-week profit, with CoinGecko data showing no significant gain or loss in the last seven days.

The price of BTC slides beneath $84,000 on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Featured image created by DALL-E, chart from TradingView

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.