The price of Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a steep decline in the past week, falling as low as $60,000 based on data from CoinMarketCap. However, the BTC market has made some recovery in the last day in line with positive jobs data news from the US. Diving into this development, financial industry analysts at Kobeissi have tipped the US Federal Reserve to implement a 25% rate cut in November.

US Jobs Rise Higher Than Expected As Inflation Slips By 1%

On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest employment situation summary for the North American country. This is a monthly statement that measures aspects of the US labor force including unemployment by demographics, and nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by various industries. 

Providing a commentary on this report, Kobeissi highlights that jobs in the US economy rose by 254,000 in September, marking an unexpected 107,000 increase in the last month over popular expectations.

On the same “hawkish”’ note, the unemployment rate crashed to 4.1% falling below common predictions of stability at 4.2% recorded in August. In fact, Analysts at Kobeissi highlight that the exact unemployment rate was 4.051% which is 0.002% shy of being rounded off to 4.0%.

Based on this report, Kobeissi states the Fed is 93% likely to adopt a 25 bps rate cut at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on November 7 which also falls below former market expectations of a 50% cut.

Implications For Bitcoin Price 

Despite the change in expected bps cut, Kobeissi describes this situation to remain bullish for financial markets including the crypto space even if the expected rate cut has already been “priced-in”. 

The analysts explain that generally, investors continue to retain a high risk appetite therefore all news is being received as good news. In addition, many financial market enthusiasts are hopeful of a “soft landing” as they predict inflation could continue falling (closer to the 2% target) while the economy remains stable. 

Following the release of the employment situation report, Bitcoin already showed a positive reaction rising by 2.53% to trade above $62,000 on Friday. Therefore, the confirmation of the expected rate cut by the Fed in November will contribute to Bitcoin’s highly anticipated bullish performance in Q4 2024.

Despite a bearish start to the quarter, the premier cryptocurrency is expected to record hefty market gains based on historical reports. Amidst high levels of optimism, multiple analysts expect Bitcoin to attain a six-figure price value soon. At press time, Bitcoin continues to trade at $62,874, following a 7.65% gain in the last month.

Featured image from MarketWatch, chart from Tradingview

The Bitcoin price having an outstanding Q4 to close the year 2024 has been one of the most prominent narratives in the cryptocurrency market in recent weeks. Interestingly, a popular blockchain firm has weighed in with unique on-chain insights into the BTC’s price trajectory.

Can Bitcoin Price Reach $100,000 By December 2024?

In a new report, CryptoQuant revealed that the price of Bitcoin is entering a period of positive seasonal performance with the historically bullish Q4 yet to take its usual course. The on-chain analytics firm highlighted that the premier cryptocurrency usually performs well in the last three months of a halving year.

According to data from CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin price increased by 9%, 59%, and 171% in 2012, 2016, and 2020 (the first three halving years), respectively. Meanwhile, the value of the premier cryptocurrency is up by 46.79% so far in 2024.

Interestingly, CryptoQuant put forward an end-of-the-year target of between $85,000 to $100,000 for the Bitcoin price. It is worth noting that the Q4 rally to this new price high would place the coin’s yearly performance between 100% and 138%.

However, the blockchain firm has identified certain factors that need to align for the Bitcoin price to resume its bull run and potentially reach a new record high. One of these critical factors is demand, which has been mostly stagnant over the last few months.

Source: CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin demand growth has been swinging between -23,000 to +69,000 BTC since July. For context, demand soared as high as a staggering 498,000 BTC in April when the market leader danced around the $70,000 price level. Ultimately, this suggests burgeoning demand could have a positive impact on the Bitcoin price in the latter part of 2024.  

BTC Demand From US Spot ETFs On The Rise

Propitiously, demand for Bitcoin from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States has been picking up in recent weeks. According to CryptoQuant data, the Bitcoin funds went from net selling 5,000 BTC in early September to net buying 7,000 BTC by the month’s end.

In comparison, the US spot ETF market purchased nearly 9,000 BTC daily in 2024’s first quarter, catapulting the premier cryptocurrency to the current all-time high of $73,737 by mid-March. If this positive trend continues, investors could see the Bitcoin price revisit its all-time high or even higher before the year is out.

As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin sits just above the $62,000 mark, reflecting a 2.3% increase in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin price at $62,000 mark on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart from TradingView

Featured image created by Dall.E, chart from TradingView

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has suggested that El Salvador reduce government support for Bitcoin. This is a far more conciliatory attitude than previous attempts to repeal the nation’s Bitcoin law.

Nevertheless, President Nayib Bukele seems committed to Bitcoinization.

Bitcoin and El Salvador

According to a recent report from Forbes, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is trying a new tactic with El Salvador: if it won’t repeal Bitcoin’s status as a legal currency, it should reduce Bitcoin’s legal support. The IMF has remained an implacable enemy of El Salvador’s Bitcoin project since Bukele declared it legal tender in 2021.

“What we have recommended is a narrowing of the scope of the bitcoin law, strengthening the regulatory framework and oversight of the bitcoin ecosystem, and limiting public sector exposure to bitcoin,” IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack claimed via press conference.

Read more: Top 9 Crypto Friendly Countries For Digital Assets Investors

Before Bukele legalized Bitcoin as a legal tender in El Salvador, the country’s sole currency was US dollars. Bukele explicitly cast this turn towards decentralized currency as an attempt to gain national sovereignty and economic independence. The IMF has tried various tactics to reverse this legislation, such as tanking Salvadoran bonds, but their tune might be changing.

Bukele won re-election in June this year, promising an “economic transformation” through Bitcoin. In his second term, he began new ambitious projects to integrate it into the economy. Additionally, since his re-election, the IMF has seemed more conciliatory in their approach, and today’s statements seem to continue the trend.

Simply put, the cat is out of the bag, thanks to Bukele’s successes. El Salvador has acquired a substantial stockpile of Bitcoin, and Forbes‘ analysis of the country’s 2025 budget suggests that the country will not require IMF loans. Slight reconciliation now might be the IMF’s best chance to rebuild a working relationship with the country.

Read more: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030

The IMF’s incentives are not aligned with El Salvador’s, and El Salvador should forge its own path, independent of IMF interests. It was a very beneficial move to defy their previous advice regarding Bitcoin,” claimed John Dennehy, founder of Salvadoran NGO Mi Primer Bitcoin.

It seems unlikely that Bukele will accept this olive branch. His re-election was quite the political accomplishment, and he has a variety of plans to continue the nation’s Bitcoinization. El Salvador has made it this far by disregarding the financial establishment, and has little reason to stop now. Bitcoin is performing well, and the future looks bright.