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Bitcoin All-Time High in 2025? Expert Sees 77% Chance

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According to a mathematical analysis by financial expert Fred Krueger, Bitcoin (BTC) has a 77% chance of reclaiming its all-time high (ATH) this year.

His outlook adds to other experts’ predictions, who see a declining US Dollar Index (DXY) and rising M2 global liquidity as key catalysts for Bitcoin’s next bull run.

Will Bitcoin Hit an All-Time High in 2025? 

In a detailed post on X, Krueger applied the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model to estimate the probability of Bitcoin rising from its current price of around $85,000 to $108,000 by 2025.

For context, GBM is a mathematical model commonly used to represent the behavior of asset prices in finance. The model assumes that the logarithm of the asset price follows a Brownian motion with drift. In simpler terms, this means that the asset price has two components:

  • A deterministic trend (drift) represents the asset’s expected return over time. It is often expressed as a constant percentage rate.
  • A random component (stochastic part) accounts for the volatility or unpredictability of asset price. It is modeled as a Wiener process (i.e., random fluctuations).

GBM serves in various financial applications, including pricing options, forecasting future asset prices, and assessing portfolio risks

For his analysis, Krueger initially assumed BTC follows a GBM with zero drift and 80% volatility. This yielded a 65% chance of Bitcoin reaching its all-time high of $108,000. However, he then adjusted the model to incorporate the coin’s historical growth trend, applying a 40% power law drift.

“This increases the mathematical odds to 77%. ChatGPT ran a simulation which confirms this result,” Krueger stated.

The analyst’s revised forecast challenges figures on prediction markets. On Polymarket, the odds of BTC hitting an ATH before 2026 are much lower at just 52%. 

“This is wrong and can be arbitraged by dynamic hedging,” Krueger claimed.

Notably, the odds are even lower on Kalshi. It estimates a 23% chance of Bitcoin reaching a new high of $150,000 in the same timeframe. 

Meanwhile, sharing Krueger’s positive outlook, another analyst foresees an upcoming bull run, citing a strong correlation with M2 Global Liquidity and a weakening US dollar. 

“April would be the month where Bitcoin marks the full bottom and starts the leg up and this has already begun this week!” he wrote on X.

He emphasized that M2 Global Liquidity reaching a new ATH is a bullish indicator for Bitcoin, which typically follows with a 75 to 105-day lag. Additionally, the DXY’s drop to a 3-year low, coupled with the inverse correlation between DXY and BTC, further fuels optimism for Bitcoin’s potential growth.

“Now that M2 is rising strongly, the next step is the rotation of profits from gold into Bitcoin. This is already happening and explains why Bitcoin jumped from the super cycle entry zone at 74,000-76,000 to 86,000. It’s all playing out as expected,” he noted.

The analyst expects a short-term pullback to $80,000. However, he remains bullish long-term. According to him, BTC could reach $550,000 to $650,000 by 2030, driven by currency debasement and Bitcoin’s fixed supply.

Bitcoin Price Performance
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

Currently, Bitcoin trades around 22.1% below its all-time high. BeInCrypto data showed that it declined 0.6% over the past day. At press time, BTC’s trading price stood at $84,338.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Bitcoin Adoption Grows As Public Firms Raise Holdings In Q1

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Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Public companies have added nearly 100,000 Bitcoin to their balance sheets during the first quarter of 2025, pushing total corporate Bitcoin holdings to a staggering 688,000 BTC worth $56.7 billion. According to data from crypto fund issuer Bitwise, this represents a 16% increase in total crypto holdings by publicly traded companies.

12 New Corporate Buyers Enter The Market

The Bitcoin buying spree wasn’t limited to existing crypto investors. Twelve public companies purchased Bitcoin for the first time during Q1, bringing the total number of Bitcoin-holding public firms to 79.

Hong Kong construction firm Ming Shing led new buyers, with its subsidiary Lead Benefit acquiring 833 BTC through two separate purchases – an initial 500 BTC buy in January followed by 333 BTC in February.

Video platform Rumble ranked as the second-largest new buyer, adding 188 BTC to its treasury in mid-March. In a move that stunned market watchers, Hong Kong investment firm HK Asia Holdings Limited purchased just one Bitcoin in February – a modest investment that still caused its share price to almost double in a single day of trading.

Japanese Firm Acquires At A Discount

While new entrants made headlines, existing Bitcoin holders also strengthened their positions. Japanese investment firm Metaplanet announced on April 14 that it had purchased an additional 319 BTC at an average price of 11.8 million yen (about $82,770) per coin.

BTC market cap currently at $1.71 trillion. Chart: TradingView

This latest purchase brings Metaplanet’s total Bitcoin holdings to 4,525 BTC, currently valued at approximately $383.2 million. The company has spent nearly $406 million (58.145 billion yen) building its crypto stack.

Based on current holdings, Metaplanet now ranks as the 10th largest public company crypto holder worldwide, sitting behind Jack Dorsey’s Block, Inc., which holds 8,480 BTC.

BTC reclaiming the green zone in the last week. Source: Coingecko

Bitcoin Price Recovers After Brief Slump

Bitcoin trades at around $85,787 as of April 15, showing a decent performance over the past 24 hours according to CoinGecko data. The cryptocurrency has gained roughly 2.5% since the end of Q1 on March 31.

The price has bounced back from a brief drop below $75,000 on April 7. That temporary decline came after a broader market selloff triggered by a new round of global tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump.

The growing corporate interest in the top crypto comes as more companies look to diversify their treasury holdings. The combined value of public companies’ Bitcoin rose about 2.3% during the first quarter, reaching nearly $57 billion with BTC priced at $82,400 by quarter’s end.

Featured image from Crews Bank, chart from TradingView

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.





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Bolivia Reverses Crypto-for-Fuel Plan Amid Energy Crisis

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Bolivia’s Ministry of Trade and Imports has rejected a state-backed plan to use cryptocurrency for fuel imports.

This move, which marks a stunning policy reversal, signals a retreat from the government’s recent push to adopt digital assets as a workaround for dollar shortages.

Bolivia Rejects Crypto-for-Fuel Scheme Amid Energy Sector Turmoil

The initial plan, announced in March by Bolivia’s state-owned energy giant YPFB, aimed to use crypto to secure fuel imports. This was in response to acute shortages of both US dollars and refined fuel.

As reported by Reuters on March 13, the proposal had received government backing at the time.

But in a statement released Tuesday, Director of Trade and Imports Marcos Duran clarified that YPFB will not be permitted to use crypto for international transactions.

“YPFB must use Bolivia’s own resources and dollar-based financial transfers,” Duran said.

Head of digital assets at VanEck, Mathew Sigel, labels this a clear U-turn on crypto policy.

“U-Turn: Bolivia appears to back away from its crypto-for-fuel scheme,” Sigel quipped.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Bitcoin Poised for Summer Rally as Gold Leads and Liquidity Peaks

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The crypto market and broader economy are moving fast as global liquidity reached an all-time high in April 2025. Gold has already broken past $3,200, setting a new record. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is still 30% below its previous peak.

Amid this backdrop, analysts are taking a closer look at the link between Bitcoin and gold. Fresh data also shows strong corporate demand for Bitcoin, with record levels of buying in Q1 2025.

What Bitcoin’s Ties to Gold and Liquidity Signal for Its Price

According to Joe Consorti, Head of Growth at Theya, Bitcoin tends to follow gold’s lead with a lag of about 100 to 150 days. A chart shared by Consorti on X, based on Bloomberg data, illustrates this trend from 2019 to April 14, 2025.

Bitcoin vs Gold (100 Lead). Source: Joe Consorti
Bitcoin vs Gold (100 Lead). Source: Joe Consorti

The chart shows gold (XAU/USD) in white and Bitcoin (XBT/USD) in orange. The data reveals that gold usually moves first during upswings, but Bitcoin often rallies harder afterward—especially when global liquidity is rising.

“When the printer roars to life, gold sniffs it out first, then Bitcoin follows harder,” Consorti said.

That 100-to-150-day lag is notable. It suggests Bitcoin could be set for a sharp move higher within the next 3 to 4 months. The recent surge in global liquidity also supports this view.

According to analyst Root, M2 money supply from major central banks—including the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (ECB), People’s Bank of China (PBoC), Bank of Japan (BoJ), Bank of England (BoE), Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Bank of Canada (BoC), and others—has hit a record high as of April 2025.

The sharp rise points to more cash flowing through the global economy.

Bitcoin vs Global Liquidity. Source: Root
Bitcoin vs Global Liquidity. Source: Root

Historically, Bitcoin bull markets have often lined up with major increases in global liquidity, as more money in the system tends to push investors toward riskier assets like Bitcoin.

Why Bitcoin Might Outperform Gold and Stocks

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Invest, states that Bitcoin is not just outperforming gold but is also surpassing the S&P 500 in the long run. This indicates that Bitcoin is becoming a stronger investment option despite its price volatility.

Bitcoin, Gold, S&P500 Performance. Source: Casebitcoin
Bitcoin, Gold, S&P500 Performance. Source: Casebitcoin

Data also supports this. A recent Bitwise report shows corporations bought over 95,400 BTC in Q1—about 0.5% of all Bitcoin in circulation. That makes it the largest quarter for corporate accumulation on record.

Corporate Bitcoin Adoption Q1 2025. Source: Bitwise.
Corporate Bitcoin Adoption Q1 2025. Source: Bitwise.

“People want to own Bitcoin. Corporations do too. 95,000 BTC purchased in Q1,” Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley said.

With rising corporate demand and Bitcoin’s strong performance against traditional assets, the stage may be set for a major rally in summer 2025—driven by peak global liquidity and Bitcoin’s historic tendency to follow gold’s lead.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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