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Bitcoin is facing critical selling pressure as bulls struggle to reclaim the $90,000 level, while bears continue to test — but fail to break — the $81,000 support zone. The market remains stuck in a tight range, caught between resistance and support, with macroeconomic uncertainty and rising geopolitical tensions adding to the volatility. United States President Donald Trump’s latest tariff moves and unpredictable policy direction have only amplified investor caution, particularly toward risk-on assets like Bitcoin.

Despite the ongoing pressure, some key data suggests the worst may be behind. According to Glassnode, capital inflows into the crypto market have surged by an impressive 350% over the past two weeks. This sharp increase in fresh capital signals renewed investor interest, particularly from institutions, and could be a leading indicator of improving market sentiment.

While Bitcoin still faces resistance and uncertainty, the strength of these inflows hints at growing confidence beneath the surface. If the trend continues, it could help BTC reclaim higher levels and shift the market’s direction. For now, bulls must hold key support and watch for momentum above $90K to confirm the start of a meaningful recovery.

Bitcoin Market Reacts To Trump Tariffs And Surging Capital Inflows

Bitcoin is trading at critical levels as financial markets absorb the shock from Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement during Liberation Day. The unexpected move has triggered massive selling pressure across global markets, fueling a rise in volatility and uncertainty. Crypto has not been spared. Bitcoin, down 22% from its all-time high, continues to struggle as the broader correction phase that began in January shows no signs of reversing yet.

Trade war fears, compounded by ongoing macroeconomic instability, have shaken investor confidence. Traditional markets are seeing increased risk-off behavior, with capital shifting away from equities and high-volatility assets — Bitcoin included. As a result, panic selling and cautious sentiment have driven BTC lower, putting the $81,000 support level in the spotlight.

However, not all signals point to weakness. Top crypto analyst Ali Martinez shared insights showing that capital inflows into the crypto market have surged by 350% in just two weeks. According to on-chain data, crypto capital moved from $1.82 billion to $8.20 billion — a sign of renewed interest from investors and institutions despite bearish price action.

These inflows may signal that the market is preparing for a rebound once current macro pressures ease. While Bitcoin remains in a fragile state, capital inflow strength could provide a base for recovery in the weeks ahead.

BTC Price Action: Bulls Struggle To Reclaim Key Levels

Bitcoin is trading at $83,400 following several days of intense selling pressure and heightened volatility. The recent market shakeup has pushed BTC well below critical resistance zones, with bulls now fighting to reclaim lost ground. One of the most important levels in the short term is $85,500 — a zone that previously acted as strong support and now aligns closely with the 4-hour 200 moving average (MA) and exponential moving average (EMA).

Reclaiming this level is essential for any potential recovery. It would signal a shift in momentum and provide bulls with the technical foundation needed to make another attempt at the $88K to $90K range. However, BTC has so far failed to retest or break back above this zone, and continued rejection could lead to further downside.

If Bitcoin cannot reclaim the $85,500 level in the coming sessions, the probability of a deeper retrace grows significantly. A drop below the $81,000 mark — the current support floor — would likely open the door to even lower targets and confirm that the correction phase remains in full effect. With macro uncertainty still looming, BTC’s next move will be critical in shaping short-term market sentiment.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView 

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Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO at Maelstrom, believes the global financial system is undergoing a major shift that could propel Bitcoin toward the $1 million mark.

According to Hayes, rising trade tensions between the US and China are accelerating the breakdown of long-standing economic norms, opening the door for neutral assets like Bitcoin to take center stage.

How US-China Standoff Could Drive Bitcoin Demand in Shifting Financial Order

In an April 5 X post, Hayes speculated that the exchange rate between the US dollar and Chinese Yuan (USDCNY) could climb to 10.00.

He attributed this to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s likely refusal to alter the country’s economic direction to appease US demands, especially under President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade stance.

“USDCNY is going to 10.00 bc there is no way that Xi Jinping will agree to change China in the ways necessary to placate Trump. This is the super bazooka BTC needs to ascend rapidly towards $1 million,” Hayes wrote on Twitter.

Over the past week, the global financial markets have been on edge following the Trump administration’s decision to impose a 10% blanket tariff on all imports. China, facing even higher levies of up to 34%, responded with its own round of retaliatory tariffs set to begin on April 10.

However, Trump doubled down on the confrontation, dismissing China’s reaction as a mistake.

“CHINA PLAYED IT WRONG, THEY PANICKED – THE ONE THING THEY CANNOT AFFORD TO DO!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

While that political posturing continues, Hayes sees deeper risks brewing beneath the surface. According to him, the ongoing tariff war could undermine the global role of US Treasuries and equities.

For decades, the US has exported dollars by running trade deficits, while foreign nations recycled those dollars into American financial assets. That system, according to Hayes, may no longer be sustainable.

If countries stop accumulating dollars, their demand for US bonds and stocks will shrink. Some may even start selling off reserves to protect their economies.

Hayes noted that even a Trump policy reversal wouldn’t restore confidence, as global leaders may no longer trust the stability of US trade policy.

“Even if Trump backtracks on the severity of the tariffs, no finance minister or world leader can risk Trump changing his mind again, and therefore things cannot return to the way they were. You must do what is best for your country,” Hayes wrote.

In this environment, Hayes sees a renewed role for assets that are not tied to any single government. According to him, gold, long regarded as a safe haven, would make a comeback.

“The dollar will still be the reserve currency, but nations will hold reserves in gold to settle global trade. Trump hinted at this because gold is tariff exempt! Gold must flow freely and cheaply in the new world monetary order,” Hayes stated.

However, Hayes says Bitcoin could be even more appealing in a world defined by decentralization, capital mobility, and reduced trust in traditional power structures.

“For those who want to adapt to a return to pre-1971 trade relationships, buy gold, gold miners and BTC,” he concluded.

The global M2 money supply has surged to an all-time high of $108.4 trillion, raising fresh questions about Bitcoin’s next move. 

The milestone comes amid escalating economic uncertainty following former President Donald Trump’s new “Liberation Day” tariffs and China’s swift retaliatory measures, which together have roiled global markets.

What is M2 and Why Does It Matter for Bitcoin?

Despite the extreme volatility over the past two weeks, Bitcoin’s average value has remained almost unchanged. 

Analysts claim that Bitcoin’s latest volatility reflects macroeconomic fears and fluctuating long/short ratios – but the largest cryptocurrency is nowhere near a bear market. 

This is largely due to the historical correlation between rising M2 levels and significant Bitcoin rallies.

M2 is a broad measure of a country or region’s money supply. It includes physical cash, checking and savings deposits, and other liquid assets that can be quickly converted to cash. 

When M2 increases, it typically signals greater liquidity in the financial system. It simply means more money that often seeks returns in riskier assets such as equities, real estate, or cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

Past surges in the M2 money supply have preceded major Bitcoin rallies. Following the COVID-era stimulus programs in 2020-2021, the US M2 supply jumped by over 25%. 

This correlated with Bitcoin’s rise from under $10,000 in mid-2020 to an all-time high of over $69,000 by November 2021. Analysts point to a similar pattern today, albeit with a lag.

“Market proponents say that Trump’s tariffs are primarily a negotiation strategy, and their effect on businesses and consumers will remain manageable. Adding to the uncertainty are the inflationary pressures that could challenge the US Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting outlook. Also, resolving the debt ceiling remains a pressing issue, as the Treasury currently relies upon ‘extraordinary measures’ to meet US financial obligations. The exact timeline for when these measures will be exhausted is unclear, but analysts anticipate they may run out after the first quarter,” said Maksym Sakharov, Co-Founder of WeFi Deobank.

Also, Bitcoin’s price often trails global M2 growth by roughly two months. 

With M2 accelerating since late February and the current spike taking it to its highest level ever, market watchers suggest that Bitcoin could see a delayed but strong upside if liquidity continues to expand.

However, macroeconomic headwinds could temper near-term gains. Trump’s tariff shock and China’s tit-for-tat response have already triggered the steepest Wall Street losses in five years.