The race for an XRP ETF (exchange-traded fund) in the US is heating up as top financial firms, including BlackRock and Fidelity, are predicted to join the competition.

Brazil beat the US with an XRP ETF already running after Hashdex secured approval a month ago, effectively pioneering the country’s financial instrument.

Nate Geraci Says XRP ETF Only A Matter of Time

Nate Geraci stated that XRP ETF approval is “simply a matter of time.” According to the president of the ETF Store, the XRP token is the third-largest non-stablecoin cryptocurrency by market capitalization, making it an attractive candidate for major ETF issuers.

He expects leading asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity to enter the XRP ETF market. This would mean following the footsteps of other firms like Bitwise, Canary Capital, WisdomTree, and Grayscale, who have already submitted filings.

“Ripple lawsuit coming to end… Seems obvious that spot XRP ETF approval is simply a matter of time IMO. And yes, I expect BlackRock, Fidelity, etc. to all be involved. XRP is currently 3rd largest non-stablecoin crypto asset by market cap. Largest ETF issuers aren’t going to ignore this,” wrote Geraci.

While Fidelity’s position remains unclear, BlackRock recently said it would prioritize Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, citing their strong performance and market maturity. Specifically, regulatory uncertainty and low market share kept BlackRock from launching altcoin ETFs like Solana or XRP.

“We’re just at the tip of the iceberg with Bitcoin and especially Ethereum. Just a tiny fraction of our clients own IBIT and ETHA, so that’s what we’re focused on (vs. launching new altcoin ETFs),” Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas stated, citing Jay Jacobs, the head of BlackRock’s ETF department.

Nevertheless, the growing confidence in an XRP ETF stems from recent positive developments in Ripple’s long-running legal battle with the US SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission). The securities regulator recently dropped its lawsuit against Ripple, marking a significant victory for the blockchain company.

As BeInCrypto reported, Ripple will retain $75 million from its settlement with the SEC as the case enters its final stages.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has expressed renewed optimism about the company’s future in the US following this break. In his opinion, the legal victory paves the way for further institutional adoption.

Five months ago, Garlinghouse predicted that an XRP ETF was inevitable. Recent regulatory clarity has only strengthened this belief.

XRP ETF Approval Odds Soar to 82%

As of February, the SEC began a 240-day countdown to review XRP ETF applications, with approval odds increasing significantly. According to Polymarket data, the likelihood of an XRP ETF approval in 2025 has surged to 82%. At the same time, there is a 41% chance of approval by July 31, 2025.

This growing confidence reflects the SEC’s changing stance on crypto-based ETFs following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier this year.

JPMorgan analysts predict that XRP ETFs could attract between $6 and $8 billion in 6 to 12 months. This projection reflects the strong demand for regulated crypto investment products. This is particularly pronounced among institutional investors seeking exposure to digital assets without direct custody risks.

However, while the optics look good for XRP ETFs, investor demand for additional products beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs remains uncertain.

Nic Puckrin, financial analyst and founder of The Coin Bureau, says the additional ETFs may be unnecessary in a soon-to-be oversaturated market.

“…Trump Media’s new “Made in America” ETFs – which are set to include US-made altcoins alongside stocks – will bring nothing new to the table. In all likelihood, their success will be short-lived and their long-term performance will be lackluster. Investors will continue choosing BTC ETFs over all this noise,” Puckrin told BeInCrypto.

BeInCrypto data shows XRP was trading for $2.47 as of this writing. This represents a modest surge of almost 2% in the last 24 hours.

HBAR has struggled to break free from a two-month downtrend, with its price stuck under the $0.20 resistance level. Although the altcoin is attempting to bounce back, broader market conditions and a lack of investor confidence have hindered its efforts. 

This ongoing struggle to regain upward momentum keeps HBAR in a difficult position, as it faces resistance both in price action and investor sentiment.

Hedera Investors Are Bearish

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator has shown weak inflows since the beginning of the year. Over the past two months, HBAR’s inflows have been overtaken by outflows, a trend that has caused the CMF to remain below the zero line. This lack of strong buying interest reflects investor hesitancy, making it difficult for the altcoin to gain sustained bullish momentum.

With the CMF struggling to cross back above zero, HBAR’s market sentiment continues to be weak. This pattern indicates a lack of confidence from investors, as they are not actively driving up demand for HBAR. 

In terms of macro momentum, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has been showing mixed signals. Over the past three weeks, HBAR’s momentum has shifted from bullish to bearish, and now, it is back to bullish again. While this may seem like a positive sign, the lack of consistent momentum makes it unlikely that the uptrend will be sustainable.

The MACD’s fluctuations indicate that HBAR is struggling to maintain a steady trend, leaving its price vulnerable to sudden volatility. If the altcoin cannot establish a firm bullish trend, it may face further challenges in regaining investor confidence and stabilizing its price action.

HBAR Price Needs A Push

Currently trading at $0.197, HBAR is attempting to hold this level as support. However, it has been stuck under $0.200 for the past two weeks, unable to make significant gains. The price will need to consistently hold above $0.197 for a longer period to signal a potential recovery.

If the bearish momentum continues, HBAR may fail to breach $0.197 and instead fall to $0.177. A loss of this support level would open the door for a deeper decline, potentially bringing the price down to $0.154. This scenario would further extend the altcoin’s downtrend and delay any potential recovery.

On the other hand, if HBAR can break through the $0.197 resistance, it could pave the way for a rise to $0.222. Successfully securing this level would mark the end of the current downtrend and initiate a recovery, helping HBAR regain recent losses.

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